Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[argentarius]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

[tmthforu94]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

[argentarius]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

[You kip if you want to...]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

Hope you're being sarcastic.

(Towards Cameron and Enda, before anyone says anything.)

[Oakvale]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.

[argentarius]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.

In fairness there was a lot of hype about an overall majority, and the fact that FG couldn't get above what FF got for an age said to me that the people don't trust FG. And similarly with Romney getting up to 37 I finally get the feeling republicans are comfortable with him as the nominee. I guess I'm the only one who sees it this way.

[You kip if you want to...]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.

In fairness there was a lot of hype about an overall majority, and the fact that FG couldn't get above what FF got for an age said to me that the people don't trust FG.

Now, that's comparable to UK 2010.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:

Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.

One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.

I don't despise Romney, I'm upset with him. He's not the man I supported in 2008. I believe that's where a lot of the distrust comes from.

[Lief 🗽]

THE RETURN OF NEWT (or the collapse of Romney, same thing): Part 3

Romney 34% (-3)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Santorum 15% (+1)
Paul 12%
Perry 6% (+1)

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Romney 33% (-1)
Gingrich 16% (+1)
Santorum 14% (-1)
Paul 12%
Perry 7% (+1)

[Lief 🗽]

Romney's lead over Newt has gone from 24% (37%-13%) to 17% (33%-16%) in three days.

[Meeker]

How the hell is Perry going up?

[TheGlobalizer]

How the hell is Perry going up?

He didn't sound like a total retard in the last debate.  Probably just a bunch of housewives fantasizing about getting ridden by a cowboy or something stupid like that.

[Lief 🗽]

The Newt surge continues:

Romney 33%
Gingrich 17% (+1)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (-1)
Perry 8% (+1)

[Meeker]

And the unexplainable Perry surge... he had his best result in three weeks the day he dropped out.

[Nhoj]

And the unexplainable Perry surge... he had his best result in three weeks the day he dropped out.

It seems republican voters like it when someone calls a US ally terrorists.

[Lief 🗽]

Mittens' coronation has been postponed indefinitely:

Romney 30% (-3)
Gingrich 20% (+3)
Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Other 9%

His lead has plummeted from 24% to 10% in less than a week.

[Beet]

And the unexplainable Perry surge... he had his best result in three weeks the day he dropped out.

Had he just stayed in the race a couple more days, he would have surged to the top and won everything!

[King]

I hear Romney's been invited to keynote the Tripoli Victory Parade.

[Volrath50]

Mittens' coronation has been postponed indefinitely:

Romney 30% (-3)
Gingrich 20% (+3)
Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Other 9%

His lead has plummeted from 24% to 10% in less than a week.

Romney's post NH surge is starting to look similar in shape to Perry, Cain and Gringrich's. I wonder if Newt will surge ahead and then implode for a third time?

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, it's pretty clear than Romney was the flavor of the month for January. Unfortunately, when put under the spotlight, he, like all the anti-Romneys before him, faltered.

[Meeker]

To drop 3 points in a single day in a five-day rolling average is unfathomably bad.

[Volrath50]

To drop 3 points in a single day in a five-day rolling average is unfathomably bad.

I'm terrible at math, but thinking about that, wouldn't Newt have probably led yesterday's poll?

[Lief 🗽]

If my math is right (which let's be honest, it's probably not), yesterday's sample would have been Newt 32, Romney 18.

[Lief 🗽]

What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?