Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones]

But wasn't/isn't the narrative that he beat Rick?

[Jayhawker]

The Santorum camp seems to be the only group that thinks he was the winner last night. Due mostly to poor organization, he fell behind even further in the delegate count, won only the states he was supposed to win (Seriously, don't tell me he has the momentum because he won ND, the only state in the air), and most importantly, lost Ohio, a state he was leading by double-digits in a week ago.

The narrative is that Mitt Romney wasn't quite able to seal the deal yet, but more and more are seeing him as the likely nominee. It certainly wasn't a great night for Santorum. Looking off the New York Times tracker, it looks like he only got around a dozen more delegates than Gingrich did last night, the guy who Santorum's camp is wanting to drop out.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Guys, this was before last night. We should see a swing similar to yesterday's.

In favor of Romney, probably. 
 

Indeed.

[mondale84]

You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

[J. J.]

You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

Until they look at the numbers.

Romney was down double digits in OH last week, and was suppose to lose OK and TN by double digits.

I think Saturday could end up being more important than we all think.

[Jayhawker]

You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

Yes, Romney's going to stay in the high 30's, and considering both Gingrich and Santorum will stay in, as well as Paul, that's all he's going to need to win the nomination. Santorum had to over-perform on Super Tuesday - he needed to win Ohio, and he didn't. Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.

[Beet]

You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

I think Cuyahoga county taking so long to report really hurt the Romnster. His problem was that there comes a point on every election night where journalists, as a professional class, are "primed" to shift away from anticipation and story-telling mode and into analysis mode, start thinking about what their byline is going to be tomorrow or what they are going to say to the 11 o clock news or what the final headline they will write before they go home to the family. On last night, when that point arrived, Santorum was still ahead. It muddled everything. If, instead of trailing by 3% all night until suddenly surging into the lead with +10,000 votes, Romney had led 4% all night and only after midnight saw his lead fall to 1% what then? I don't think the narrative would have been any different than if he won by 5%.

All of which may be irrelevant, since this primary season we tend to see that narrative and momentum don't matter so much (at least so long as Romney is concerned).

[Keystone Phil]

I love when the Romney people talk about Santorum's disorganized campaign structure. So the super organized machine barely beat the "inept" team in two major states? Great narrative.

And, tm, Santorum only got a dozen more delegates last night over the guy we want out because the guy we want out camped out in his home state and that happened to be the biggest delegate prize.

[Jayhawker]

I talk about Santorum's disorganized campaign structure because it has severely hindered his chances at winning the nomination, and I have reservations on how well he can go up against Obama's machine when he can't even get on the ballot in all states.

And yes, that's right - Gingrich ran a smart strategy, and it's going to prove to be so when he wins Alabama and Mississippi next week and passes Santorum in national polls.

[Lief]

Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

[J. J.]

Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

From 11 points behind last week, no.

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

[Lief]

Okay, so assuming that Obama's campaign is non-existent and doesn't spend any money and decides to go off message for days at time to attack John F. Kennedy for not being sufficiently pro-theocracy, Romney should be able to narrowly defeat him in November. Good plan guys!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.

He finished third in Tennessee, third in Oklahoma and fourth (dead last), in Alaska and North Dakota.

He's done.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

And, tm, Santorum only got a dozen more delegates last night over the guy we want out because the guy we want out camped out in his home state and that happened to be the biggest delegate prize.

Exactly so. What's left out there for Newt? He's already conceded everything outside of the South. He conceded everything on Super Tuesday other than GA - because he knew losing GA meant that he was out.

[J. J.]

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

[J. J.]

Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.

He finished third in Tennessee, third in Oklahoma and fourth (dead last), in Alaska and North Dakota.

He's done.

I don't know about "replacing" Santorum, but I expect Santorum to have a rough ten days or so.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

Carpetbombing your opponents with negative ads?

[Torie]

Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

It depends how much it is due to flawed salesmanship, and how much to having to deal with an intractable wing of the party, with views that in a General are at once poor public policy and electoral suicide. The more it is the latter, the more the answer, is no, I for one don't have much concern. Most of the Pub Mittens resisters will be voting for him in the Fall. But flawed salesmanship is a more generic handicap, which would of course carry over as a problem in the General.

Make sense?

[patrick1]

Shouldn't you have reservations about Mitt Romney's ability to go up against Obama's machine if he can barely beat Santorum's disorganized campaign?

It depends how much it is due to flawed salesmanship, and how much to having to deal with an intractable wing of the party, with views that in a General are at once poor public policy and electoral suicide. The more it is the latter, the more the answer, is no, I for one don't have much concern. Most of the Pub Mittens resisters will be voting for him in the Fall. But flawed salesmanship is a more generic handicap, which would of course carry over as a problem in the General.

Make sense?

Can't it be both? 

I think it is obvious that Mitt is a poor salesman of himself.  People just don't like him.  Further, he needs that intractable wing to turn actually turn out in large numbers on election day. Bush despite his many shortcomings built his victories on being able to sell himself and large turnout of the base.   

[J. J.]

Romney looks exceptionally good at the planning aspect, and he seems disciplined.

Did you start inhaling again JJ?

Would you care to explain the 11 point gain in OH in one week?

Carpetbombing your opponents with negative ads?

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

[Keystone Phil]

Here's the other thing I love: "Hey, we were down by double digits and came back to win it!"

Uh. Ok. If it's bad that you barely won, why would you think that pointing out your past deficits is making a good point? Sure, you made it up but you should have never been in that position to begin with. At least not as supporters of Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.

(*snort*)

Do people really think he's going to carry the counties that he's winning now vs the O?

[J. J.]

Here's the other thing I love: "Hey, we were down by double digits and came back to win it!"

Uh. Ok. If it's bad that you barely won, why would you think that pointing out your past deficits is making a good point? Sure, you made it up but you should have never been in that position to begin with. At least not as supporters of Mr. Super Organized Electable Frontrunner.

That's a bit like complaining that the archbishop didn't show up for the coronation.  

Since SC, I've expected a long race.

I never expected either Santorum or Romney to win IA or come in second.  The only time to shut the process down was SC.

[Landslide Lyndon]

That needed planning and money, and it needed a local organization to work.

Then I guess Santorum was super organized when he came back from being 20 points down in Iowa and beat Mittens.
Or when Newt did the same thing in South Carolina.