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| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread
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Author Topic: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 36161 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #450 on: March 09, 2012, 04:08:48 pm »
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I love this post from the 08 JJ exchange

I'm not crazy about ARG or Zogby, but some of the other polls have been showing a tightening of the race.
  All the polls have show'd a basic 5-7 pt Obama lead. No tightening of what you speak.

Rasmussen's 'bots put it at 4 points last week.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70545.0

His margin was larger, IIRC.  It looks like the race is tightening.  That doesn't mean a Clinton victory, but it does mean a closer race.

No. The last time Rasmussen had polled the race was exactly never.

The only pollster to have enough polls to constitute a trend is Strategic Vision, which gave:

Feb 2007: C+15
May 2007: C+13
July 2007: C+16
Sept 2007: C+22
Nov 2007: C+18
Dec 2007: C+7
Feb 2008: O+4

But, given how spread out the polls were, the earliest we can even really look at trends is starting from November.

As you know, I never look at one poll; I've been looking at the different polls out there, and it seems to be tightening.

...as if suggesting he has some sort of mystical proprietary method
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ajb
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« Reply #451 on: March 12, 2012, 12:12:03 pm »
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Romney 34% (-2)
Santorum 25% (+1)
Gingrich 15%  (+1)

Romney's slide continues.
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« Reply #452 on: March 12, 2012, 02:23:09 pm »
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Very surprising... I thought most would consider it wrapped up by now
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ajb
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« Reply #453 on: March 13, 2012, 12:04:41 pm »
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I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)
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change08
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« Reply #454 on: March 13, 2012, 12:30:27 pm »
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I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)


Okay seriously, the trollishness of the GOP electorate (we're now on Rickmentum Mark III!) has made this the most hilarious/the best primary ever. Rick/Newt now about a 12 point (joint) edge over Mitt, he was tied with them right before Super Tuesday, right?
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King
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« Reply #455 on: March 13, 2012, 01:16:55 pm »
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My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.
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« Reply #456 on: March 13, 2012, 01:19:24 pm »
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My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.
I've had two axioms for this primary season:
1. Mitt Romney can't win the nomination.
2. Nobody other than Mitt Romney can win the nomination.

Clearly, something will have to give here, but so far both my axioms are  looking good.
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« Reply #457 on: March 13, 2012, 01:20:12 pm »
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I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)


we will never hear the end from Keystone Phil if Romney wins the nomination yet ends up polling under Santorum in this poll's last poll.
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« Reply #458 on: March 13, 2012, 01:24:44 pm »
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My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.
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King
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« Reply #459 on: March 13, 2012, 01:30:08 pm »
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There's just something amiss. I think it's his smile. They did a great job with every other physical feature, but that scrunch face casual smile (see NHI's signature if he still has it) is just... fail.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #460 on: March 13, 2012, 02:39:41 pm »
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Rick Santorum is the choice of this party. Step aside, Newt.
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tweed
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« Reply #461 on: March 13, 2012, 02:41:48 pm »
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My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

the "I can't imagine Romney winning and I also can't imagine him not winning" was coined in January/early February.  don't remember who first said it.
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« Reply #462 on: March 13, 2012, 05:17:35 pm »
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My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.
Unfortunately, that's not saying much.
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« Reply #463 on: March 13, 2012, 05:41:18 pm »
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My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.

Yep.  I'm just wondering if I'll be invited to attend.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #464 on: March 15, 2012, 12:25:23 pm »
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God, I can't wait until the numbers are all from after March 13th...

Romney - 35% (+2)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 10% (-1)
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Pictor Ignotus
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« Reply #465 on: March 15, 2012, 02:24:05 pm »
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God, I can't wait until the numbers are all from after March 13th...

Romney - 35% (+2)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

Me too, though I keep thinking that the rest of the country usually doesn't follow the lead of Mississippi.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #466 on: March 15, 2012, 02:27:27 pm »
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You know the old saying. As goes American Somoa, so goes the nation
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #467 on: March 15, 2012, 02:45:13 pm »
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God, I can't wait until the numbers are all from after March 13th...

Romney - 35% (+2)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (-1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

Me too, though I keep thinking that the rest of the country usually doesn't follow the lead of Mississippi.

But the base of the GOP, on the other hand...  Wink

Seriously, that result could lead to an exodus of southerns from Planet Newt.
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« Reply #468 on: March 15, 2012, 02:50:07 pm »
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You know the old saying. As goes American Somoa, so goes the nation

Yeah, David Axelrod's Twitter is great, it's just 24-7 Romney trolling. Grin
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #469 on: March 15, 2012, 03:16:41 pm »
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I didn't realize i was copying Axelrod. I dont follow him. Apparently losing to Hillary in Somoa in 2008 still stings.
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« Reply #470 on: March 15, 2012, 03:17:23 pm »
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I didn't realize i was copying Axelrod. I dont follow him. Apparently losing to Hillary in Somoa in 2008 still stings.

The future is American Samoa!
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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #471 on: March 15, 2012, 03:19:41 pm »
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So, does Rick win flavor of the month for March too?

He's been flavor of the month in January, February and now March.
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King
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« Reply #472 on: March 16, 2012, 04:06:54 pm »
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Romney 36% (+1)
Santorum 28% (+1)
Gingrich 13% (-2)
Irrelevant 10% (nc)

Gingrich collapse and Santorum prolapse forthcoming.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #473 on: March 16, 2012, 06:35:06 pm »
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I am wondering if there really is no more momentum and we are just in for a long slog. Michigan seems to be the last 'game changer' where Romney's win pushed him back to the top here and on the RCP average. Since then we have had Super Tuesday, Kansas/Islands Saturday, and Southern/Hawaii Tuesday and nothing is really changing.

And Gallup's latest shows Newt dropping out wouldn't make much of a dent in Romney's lead. For Santorum to really change the dynamics, he has to do something surprising again (like when he swept 3 states in one day). It is hard to see when he could do that. Maybe winning PR and IL would shake things up, but it looks like he and Romney are going to be trading states from now until June and the national dynamic isn't going to change much.

Hopefully I'm wrong as it is getting boring
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« Reply #474 on: March 17, 2012, 12:57:40 pm »
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Other than the last line, I agree with the previous post. It just doesn't seem likbe newt is dropping enough in numbers to drop out anytime (too) soon.
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