Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[fezzyfestoon]

I think it contains the beginnings of the Etch-a-Sketch fiasco. The poll dates were the 18th-22nd and I believe that happened on the 21st? Tomorrow will probably show a bigger effect if there is one.

[fezzyfestoon]

Since the graph went over so well, here's an updated one of Romney vs. the anti-Romneys. I excluded Paul and Huntsman since neither ever challenged Romney, but Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann are included. Romney has led or tied them for a total of seven days throughout the polling process and has peaked today on his seventh day of leading or a tie at a 40-40 tie.



Also interesting is that the polled candidates combined for a new high of 88% in the last two days. They've bottomed out near 75% and averaged around 80% the entire time, dipping when the leading anti-Romney does. EXCEPT Santorum's plunge after his late February surge. I'm thinking that was the last of the surges considering the significantly lower amount of indecision in the polls...well, Gallup's at least. It's hard to keep myself from reading too much into one pollster's data when it's so extensive...and lonely haha

There also seems to be a stronger relationship between Romney's numbers and Gingrich's than Santorum's. I'll look into that more tomorrow.

[Torie]

Yes, I think Mittens is getting some of the Newt vote. When Newt falls into single digits, Mittens over-performs the 3 candidate demographic model vote share. That is my tentative thesis anyway.

[tmthforu94]

And it grows...

Romney - 42% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (+1)
Paul - 8% (nc)

It appears that undecideds are starting to break towards Romney. Based off this, 91% are now decided, compared to 88% a couple days ago.

[fezzyfestoon]

Wow, nice...that's a pretty strong place for Romney to be. I think the 91% decided makes all the difference, even considering Louisiana. The post-LA polls will be pretty interesting though and probably very telling.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I doubt LA will change a thing... every opening line of every report mentions Romney has heavy delegate lead

[Rowan]

Romney: 41%(-1)
Santorum: 26%(nc)
Gingrich: 13%(-2)
Paul: 8%(nc)

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Looks like etch a sketch was a flop. Romney has this, the people have spoken.

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, they've spoken loud and clear:

[minionofmidas]

Yup, they've spoken loud and clear:

Southerners are not real Americans.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Yup, they've spoken loud and clear:

The south is always going to choose the more conservative candidate by default. Moving on.

[Keystone Phil]

Romney - 39% (-2)
Santorum - 27% (+1)
Gingrich - 14% (+1)

They aren't bothering to post the troll from Texas' results on the main page.

[Rowan]

Louisiana SURGE!

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

There was a surge after KS as well. Did it win Santorum IL...wait no, he didn't even manage to come within single digits. He has yet to win a (contested) primary outside of the south. Romney is the national candidate, Romney is the candidate for the GOP, and for America.

[minionofmidas]

Romney - 39% (-2)
Santorum - 27% (+1)
Gingrich - 14% (+1)

They aren't bothering to post the troll from Texas' results on the main page.

But they do report the just-as-boring Georgia Troll and the much better PA Troll.

Anti-Texan Racism, is all it is.

[fezzyfestoon]

It's now been over a month since Santorum last held the lead.

[Keystone Phil]

Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 27% (nc)
Gingrich - 12% (-2)

[Meeker]

Does anyone want to take the time to calculate how much of the country, by population, has already had their opportunity to vote?

[RI]

Does anyone want to take the time to calculate how much of the country, by population, has already had their opportunity to vote?

Of the 50 states and DC, 48.69% of the US population has had a chance to vote.

[Keystone Phil]

Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 28% (+1)
Gingrich - 11% (-1)

[Rowan]

SURGE!!!!!!!

[fezzyfestoon]

Gingrich is in 4th!

Romney - 39% (nc)
Santorum - 28% (nc)
Paul - 11% (nc)
Gingrich - 10% (-1)

[fezzyfestoon]

In fact, Gingrich is full-on collapsing, down from 17% about two weeks ago.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In fact, Gingrich is full-on collapsing, down from 17% about two weeks ago.

Do you think he'll go down to 1%? Every other not-Romney did after their surge (except Rick, but he's still Not-Romney of the Hour).

[Wisconsin+17]

Wow, I get back and I love that Santorum map of LA.

Newt's well and truly done.