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Author Topic: Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 27582 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 06, 2011, 10:23:01 am »
Later today, Gallup will begin releasing a daily tracking poll of the GOP presidential race based on a five-day rolling average of at least 1,000 registered Republican voters.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/06/tracking_the_republicans.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2011, 01:37:46 pm »
1st release:



http://www.gallup.com/poll/151355/Gingrich-Romney-Among-GOP-Voters-Nationwide.aspx
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2011, 01:45:28 pm »
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Looks like when a guy getting 22% of the vote drops out, Perry also loses 4 points.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2011, 01:56:53 pm »
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Look at Mitt! Staying all constant and unmoving. Way to go Mitt!
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King
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2011, 02:51:16 pm »
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Mitt "Catch 22" Romney.
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Badger
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2011, 02:08:45 pm »
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Today's Update:


Gingrich 36% (-1)

Romney 23% (+1)

Paul 9% (+1)

Perry 6% (-1)

Bachmann 6%

Santorum 3%

Other 3%

Huntsman 1%
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2011, 09:00:45 pm »
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Gingrich 34% (-2)
Romney 25% (+2)
Paul 10% (+1)
Bachmann 7% (+1)
Perry 5% (-1)
Santorum 2% (-1)
Huntsman 1% (nc)
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« Reply #7 on: December 08, 2011, 09:07:46 pm »
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Gingrich's lead has gone from 15 to 9 in just a few days. Trend or noise?
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Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2011, 09:14:49 pm »
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Quote from: Likely Voter on December 08, 2011, 09:07:46 pm
Gingrich's lead has gone from 15 to 9 in just a few days. Trend or noise?

Let's see if it's down to 6 or so on Monday.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2011, 06:46:10 pm »
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Newt surge.

Gingrich 37% (+3)
Romney 23% (-2)
Paul 9% (-1)
Bachmann 6% (-1)
Perry 6% (+1)
Santorum 2% (nc)
Huntsman 1% (nc)
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« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2011, 07:03:44 pm »
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Once Bachmann and Perry drop out after losses in early states, their supporters are going over to Gingrich. Fair or not, this race is going to be between Moderates backing Romney and conservatives backing Gingrich very quickly. I think it's pretty clear which wing rules the GOP.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2011, 07:52:11 pm »
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Quote from: Likely Voter on December 08, 2011, 09:07:46 pm

Trend or noise?


5 day rolling average, and a subset of their presidential approval tracking poll.

Gonna be a whole lot of noise in that one...

Also, the sample universe is Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, so I ~~suspect~~ the actual primary voters who turn out to vote may look a LOT different than this sample.

Gingrich has a lot more intensity, buy Romney has a ton more actual organization... we see how those play out.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2011, 02:39:35 pm »
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Gingrich 35% (-2)
Romney 23% (nc)
Paul 9% (nc)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Perry 6% (nc)
Santorum 3% (+1)
Huntsman 2% (+1)
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2011, 05:27:26 pm »
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Pretty stable.

Gingrich 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2011, 05:41:42 pm »
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Quote from: realisticidealist on December 12, 2011, 05:27:26 pm
Pretty stable.

Gingrich 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%

Looks like Gingrich is starting to deflate.
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IDS Legislator Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2011, 07:00:43 pm »
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Quote from: redcommander on December 12, 2011, 05:41:42 pm
Quote from: realisticidealist on December 12, 2011, 05:27:26 pm
Pretty stable.

Gingrich 33%
Romney 23%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 3%
Huntsman 2%

Looks like Gingrich is starting to deflate.
He'll probably get a boost once Perry/Bachmann/Santorum drop out, as they inevitably will. Same with Romney and Huntsman. I'm thinking Paul's going to be a Huckabee-esque side-thorn up until the convention.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2011, 07:05:43 pm »
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Mitt's numbers so far in this thread:


22,21,22,23,25,23,23,23.
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redcommander
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2011, 07:08:36 pm »
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Quote from: Thomas D on December 12, 2011, 07:05:43 pm
Mitt's numbers so far in this thread:


22,21,22,23,25,23,23,23.



McCain didn't exactly start to consolidate support until after New Hampshire.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2011, 07:10:25 pm by redcommander »Logged
Meeker
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« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2011, 08:27:46 pm »
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Quote from: redcommander on December 12, 2011, 07:08:36 pm
Quote from: Thomas D on December 12, 2011, 07:05:43 pm
Mitt's numbers so far in this thread:


22,21,22,23,25,23,23,23.



McCain didn't exactly start to consolidate support until after New Hampshire.

Either you're trolling or you have no understanding of the dynamics of the 2008 race.
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State Comptroller Atkins
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2011, 01:40:02 pm »
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Gingrich 31% (-2)
Romney 22% (-1)
Paul 8%
Perry 7% (+1)
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2%
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cavalcade
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« Reply #20 on: December 13, 2011, 02:00:39 pm »
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Quote from: Joseph Gordon Levitt on December 13, 2011, 01:40:02 pm
Gingrich 31% (-2)
Romney 22% (-1)
Paul 8%
Perry 7% (+1)
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2%

In the last week Newt is down 6, Santorum is up 1, and Huntsman is up 1.  Everyone else is flat.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2011, 02:02:25 pm »
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Looks like gravity is exerting its influence again.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #22 on: December 14, 2011, 02:56:56 pm »
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Santorumentum? Tongue

Gingrich 31% (nc)
Romney 23% (+1)
Paul 9% (+1)
Bachmann 6% (nc)
Perry 6% (-1)
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2% (nc)
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Badger
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« Reply #23 on: December 14, 2011, 03:12:56 pm »
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Quote from: cavalcade on December 13, 2011, 02:00:39 pm
Quote from: Joseph Gordon Levitt on December 13, 2011, 01:40:02 pm
Gingrich 31% (-2)
Romney 22% (-1)
Paul 8%
Perry 7% (+1)
Bachmann 6%
Santorum 4% (+1)
Huntsman 2%

In the last week Newt is down 6, Santorum is up 1, and Huntsman is up 1.  Everyone else is flat.

That's not statistical noise; Newt is wounded, and both the media and his rivals are scenting blood.
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State Comptroller Atkins
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« Reply #24 on: December 15, 2011, 01:15:36 pm »
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Gingrich 29% (-2)
Romney 24% (+1)
Paul 10% (+1)
Bachmann 7% (+1)
Perry 5% (-1)
Santorum 4% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)
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