Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[Lief 🗽]

These numbers are presumably almost all from before Santorum won last night.

Too bad it looks like Romney is surging as well.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney: 27% (+1)
Gingrich: 19% (-3)
Paul: 13% (nc)
Santorum: 11% (+3)
Perry: 6% (nc)
Huntsman: 2% (nc)
Other: 6% (+4)

Remember, there's still a low percentage Santorum-sample in there from Monday, so he should at least be at 15% tomorrow.

More than just Monday - it's a five-day rolling average. This poll is last Wednesday and Thursday plus this Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. So only one day of post-Iowa polling data.

[Lief 🗽]

Who are these people still supporting Perry?

[Lief 🗽]

Romney 30% (-1)
Santorum 18% (nc)
Gingrich 17% (+1)
Paul 13% (nc)
Perry 6% (nc)
Other 2% (-1)
Huntsman 1% (nc)

[Lief 🗽]

THE RETURN OF NEWT (or the collapse of Romney, same thing): Part 3

Romney 34% (-3)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Santorum 15% (+1)
Paul 12%
Perry 6% (+1)

[Lief 🗽]

Romney's lead over Newt has gone from 24% (37%-13%) to 17% (33%-16%) in three days.

[Lief 🗽]

The Newt surge continues:

Romney 33%
Gingrich 17% (+1)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (-1)
Perry 8% (+1)

[Lief 🗽]

Mittens' coronation has been postponed indefinitely:

Romney 30% (-3)
Gingrich 20% (+3)
Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Other 9%

His lead has plummeted from 24% to 10% in less than a week.

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, it's pretty clear than Romney was the flavor of the month for January. Unfortunately, when put under the spotlight, he, like all the anti-Romneys before him, faltered.

[Lief 🗽]

If my math is right (which let's be honest, it's probably not), yesterday's sample would have been Newt 32, Romney 18.

[Lief 🗽]

What I did was multiply Mitt's number today by five, to unaverage it, and Newt's number today, by 5, to unaverage it.

So that's 150 for Mitt and 100 for Newt. Then you subtract yesterday's numbers four times from that, so

150-33-33-33-33 = 18
100-17-17-17-17 = 32

Is that right?

[Lief 🗽]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Looks like tmth was right. Romney never did reach 38% and his campaign has collapsed as result.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

[Lief 🗽]

Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

[Lief 🗽]

Romney's lead has been cut to one point.

Romney 29% (-1)
Gingrich 28% (+3)
Paul 13%
Santorum 11% (-1)
Other 5% (-1)

[Lief 🗽]

It has finally happened! Praise Jesus!

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

[Lief 🗽]

Uh oh, last night might have been a good night for Mitt:

Gingrich 31%
Romney 28% (+1)
Paul 12%
Santorum 12%

[Lief 🗽]

I think that insane sample where Gingrich had something like a 15-point lead is the one that rolled off today, which would explain the numbers.

[Lief 🗽]

Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

Gingrich 31%
Romney 25% (-3)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (+1)
Other 3%

[Lief 🗽]

Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

If you think that Romney's money-soaked campaign is disgusting, you must have been really upset over how Obama absolutely drowned McCain in 2008 in terms of ads and campaign spending. Right?

No. The two aren't comparable, as I explained to JJ.

[Lief 🗽]

I am pleasantly surprised by these numbers today. Newt just needs to figure out how to win Florida.

Just get it down to a narrow Romney win and I think we're still okay.

[Lief 🗽]

No signs of a Newt crash nationally, only in Florida where the Mormon is buying the election.

Gingrich 32% (+1)
Romney 24% (-1)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 13%
Other 3%

[Lief 🗽]

Gingrich is collapsing but Romney's not gaining any of it:

Gingrich 28% (-4)
Romney 26%
Santorum 15% (+2)
Paul 14% (+1)
Other 2%

[Lief 🗽]

Not much movement today, though the mini-Santorum surge continues:

Gingrich 28%
Romney 27% (+1)
Santorum 16% (+1)
Paul 13% (-1)
Other 2%

[Lief 🗽]

Mini-Santorum surge continues, but otherwise literally nothing happens today.

Gingrich 28%
Romney 27%
Santorum 17% (+1)
Paul 13%
Other 2%