Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[tmthforu94]

LOL at the people who were literally saying one week ago that Romney was pretty much done.

[tmthforu94]

A lot is going to have to happen for Romney to NOT win the nomination.

[tmthforu94]

As with Paul, no sign of national Santmentum.

It will come after Iowa.

[tmthforu94]

Romney 34% (nc)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Santorum 14% (-1)
Paul 12% (-1)
Perry 5% (nc)
Huntsman 2% (nc)
Other 2% (nc)

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, Romney's probably leading pretty much everywhere now. Maybe a couple Southern states, but that's it.

[tmthforu94]

Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:

Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

[tmthforu94]

Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:

Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.

One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.

[tmthforu94]

Romney will break 40% soon, and after SC probably breaks 50. D:

Impossible. Don't you remember? 75% of Republicans despise and distrust Mitt. No way will he ever get that high.

They don't like him, dude. It's ok to admit it. Hell, I have to admit that a lot of people within the PA GOP dislike one of their own (Santorum).

Romney's boost can be attributed to a feeling of inevitability now. We're being bombarded with stories about how the GOP is/has to unite behind the "clear frontrunner" now. Romney is naturally going to benefit.

One of the worst myths in this cycle is that the GOP absolutely despises Mitt. A few do, yes, but a majority of GOP voters are fine with him being the nominee. His favorable are better than most candidates left in the race. People who really dislike and despise him aren't going to flock to him after he won two states - they'll keep supporting an alternative until he's the only one left.

Despise? No. But I think it's fair to say that a lot of Republicans dislike him. At this point, it's "Let's unite behind the guy early and focus on beating Obama. Plus, he's supposedly the most electable."

Fair enough. A lot of Republicans also dislike Santorum, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, and Perry. It's a race to the bottom!

Mitt Romney is going to win the nomination because a majority of Republicans (and I believe they're right here) believe Romney is our best chance to beat Obama, and because he's the most knowledgeable and experienced in terms of the economy. They may not love his social issues, but that's not their top concern right now.

[tmthforu94]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

[tmthforu94]

Mittmentum!



Somewhat of a relief - I was fully expecting Newt to start running away with this. Is there another debate before Florida?

[tmthforu94]

ZOMG IT"S HAPPENING!!!1!!

[tmthforu94]

This is a genuine surprise to me - yeah, Santorum has surged, but I was expecting him to easily pass Romney and lead by 10 points or so.

I'm very glad this race is coming down to these two - I've now determined none of them will beat Obama, but Romney will at least make it a race and help Republicans downballot. We'd be at risk to losing the House if Santorum or Gingrich were nominated.

[tmthforu94]

Honestly, Gingrich needs to go hard after Santorum in the debate on Wednesday, rather than focus on Romney, which he'll probably try to do. The only way Gingrich can still win is if he completely deteriorates Santorum enough to once again by the "Anti-Romney" choice. He's not going to be able to make this a two-way race between himself and Santorum, try as he might.

[tmthforu94]

The Santorum camp seems to be the only group that thinks he was the winner last night. Due mostly to poor organization, he fell behind even further in the delegate count, won only the states he was supposed to win (Seriously, don't tell me he has the momentum because he won ND, the only state in the air), and most importantly, lost Ohio, a state he was leading by double-digits in a week ago.

The narrative is that Mitt Romney wasn't quite able to seal the deal yet, but more and more are seeing him as the likely nominee. It certainly wasn't a great night for Santorum. Looking off the New York Times tracker, it looks like he only got around a dozen more delegates than Gingrich did last night, the guy who Santorum's camp is wanting to drop out.

[tmthforu94]

You all do realize that this "victory" for Romney is being billed as a disastrous disappointment, right? Everywhere it's being said that he massively underperformed...whether this is objectively true or not doesn't matter...he ed up according to the Media and that's what the average voter listens to. I think Gingrich and Santorum might get a small bounce, but I think Romney stays flat, especially after this weekend/next week.

Yes, Romney's going to stay in the high 30's, and considering both Gingrich and Santorum will stay in, as well as Paul, that's all he's going to need to win the nomination. Santorum had to over-perform on Super Tuesday - he needed to win Ohio, and he didn't. Yesterday probably helped Gingrich more than it helped him, and if Gingrich can nab Alabama and Mississippi next week, he could be on his way to replacing Santorum.

[tmthforu94]

I talk about Santorum's disorganized campaign structure because it has severely hindered his chances at winning the nomination, and I have reservations on how well he can go up against Obama's machine when he can't even get on the ballot in all states.

And yes, that's right - Gingrich ran a smart strategy, and it's going to prove to be so when he wins Alabama and Mississippi next week and passes Santorum in national polls.

[tmthforu94]

At the rate this is going, there could soon be a huge hole in the argument that Gingrich dropping out would lead Santorum to come back and win the nomination. At this rate, even if all of Gingrich's supporters joined the Santorum camp, Romney would still hold a small lead.

Of course, there will probably be a decent chuck of the Gingrich vote that would go to Romney. Santorum will have to create a perfect storm in order to be able to come back and upset Romney.

[tmthforu94]

Yeah, because all of Gingrich's supporters will go directly to the Santorum camp.

[tmthforu94]

And it grows...

Romney - 42% (+2)
Santorum - 26% (nc)
Gingrich - 15% (+1)
Paul - 8% (nc)

It appears that undecideds are starting to break towards Romney. Based off this, 91% are now decided, compared to 88% a couple days ago.

[tmthforu94]

Romney - 42% (+3)
Santorum - 27% (-1)
Gingrich - 11% (+1)
Paul - 10% (-1)

I think there was a day that wasn't included, so the change from the last poll is for 2 days, not just one.

[tmthforu94]

Well...

Romney - 40% (-3)
Santorum - 25% (nc)
Paul - 12% (+2)
Gingrich - 11% (nc)

[tmthforu94]

The race is over. Gingrich has all but dropped out and endorsed Romney - he's only in to help influence the party platform.

Today's Numbers:
Romney: 44% (+2)
Santorum: 25% (nc)
Paul: 13% (+2)
Gingrich: 10% (+1)

92% of Republicans have made up their mind. That may be the highest number yet.