Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

Hope you're being sarcastic.

(Towards Cameron and Enda, before anyone says anything.)

[You kip if you want to...]

37% for me is the magic number. It is completely over, no matter what goes on in SC the media won't give enough momentum if a not Romney wins.

Meh, not sure. 38%, yes. 37%...not so sure about.

Well it was the magic number in NH for me too, it's just that in the last GE in Ireland and Britain the leading party got an unconvincing victory with 36%, and that I got the feeling in both of those that 37% would have made a significant difference.

The idea that Fine Gael's victory was "unconvincing" is one I haven't heard before.

In fairness there was a lot of hype about an overall majority, and the fact that FG couldn't get above what FF got for an age said to me that the people don't trust FG.

Now, that's comparable to UK 2010.

[You kip if you want to...]

Absolutely no words for this primary.

[You kip if you want to...]

Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

We still haven't even had any reasonable reading after SC yet

[You kip if you want to...]

Gingrich 31% (+3)
Romney 27% (-2)
Paul 12% (-1)
Santorum 12% (+1)
Other 3% (-2)

Need to start a thread of just photos of Democrats laughing during the Republican Convention.

[You kip if you want to...]

Take it to tumblr and 4chan, kids.

[You kip if you want to...]

Looks like either Mitt had a real good night last night or a massive Newt sample rolled off... maybe a bit of both.

I think the first post-SC sample will have just rolled off.

[You kip if you want to...]

Gingrich is still expanding his lead nationally, so it looks like the only reason Mitt is ahead again in Florida is because he's blanketing the airwaves. His campaign really is disgusting.

Gingrich 31%
Romney 25% (-3)
Paul 13% (+1)
Santorum 13% (+1)
Other 3%

If Newt can open up a 10 point lead, would a lose in FL even matter that much? Where would his supporters go? The anyone-but-mitters aren't going to Mitt or Paul and Santorum'll probably drop out soon after FL.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh dear

Romney 31% (+4)
Gingrich 26% (-2)
Santorum 16% (-1)
Paul 11% (-2)
Other 2%

[You kip if you want to...]

Romney, like Gingrich, goes gaffe city whenever he has frontrunner status.

Mitt's gaffe city all the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Deluges of Santorum.

[You kip if you want to...]

Nate Silver from 538 tweeted "Reverse engineering the Gallup tracking poll, looks like Wed.'s results were about Romney 32, Santorum 32, Gingrich 16."

LOL, Mitt Romney.

[You kip if you want to...]

Santorum will have the lead tomorrow and it will only get progressively more Santorum until the next break point at the debate.

Santorum trickling its way up.

[You kip if you want to...]

Romney 32 (nc)
Santorum 30 (nc)
Gingrich 16 (nc)
Paul 8 (nc)

[You kip if you want to...]

Santorum soon will be on the lips of every Republican.

Well, he's certainly making a big splash on the polls.

[You kip if you want to...]

Mitt's peak on RCP - 34.5%
Santorum currently at 34.2%.

Mitt's crap.

[You kip if you want to...]

A Newt surge in the next few days helps Romney more than anyone else. Splitting the social conservative vote between Gingrich and Santorum helps Romney get back in the race for Arizona and Michigan. With those under his belt, he's going into Super Tuesday in a much better position.

These surges have been happening in the space of 2 days, 6 is plenty of time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Santorum 33 (-1)
Romney 27 (nc)
Gingrich 16 (+1)
Paul 11 (+1)

Newtmentum Mark III

[You kip if you want to...]

And now the GOP has to settle

[You kip if you want to...]

Santorum could be 3-4 ahead again come Thursday for all we know. This primary is insane.

[You kip if you want to...]

Romney: 38% (nc)
Santorum: 22% (nc)
Gingrich: 15% (-2)
Paul: 12% (+2)

Erm, ok.

Implies Mittmentum's halted. Another santorum deluge?

[You kip if you want to...]

Rickmentum!

[You kip if you want to...]

Bigger swing that at the start of the latest Romney surge (February 25th).

[You kip if you want to...]

I was (sort of) joking yesterday about Romney's slide. But look at today:

Romney 32% (-2)
Santorum 27% (+2)
Gingrich 17% (+2)

Okay seriously, the trollishness of the GOP electorate (we're now on Rickmentum Mark III!) has made this the most hilarious/the best primary ever. Rick/Newt now about a 12 point (joint) edge over Mitt, he was tied with them right before Super Tuesday, right?

[You kip if you want to...]

My common sense keeps telling me Mitt is going to just keep pulling it out, but I just can't picture him giving an acceptance speech at the convention.

Requiring an ever wider stretch of the imagination, can anyone really see?:

"I, Willard Milton Romney, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.