Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[Volrath50]

Yikes. Mittens had a rough sample last night I guess.

Has there been a notable shift from attacking Gingrich to attacking Romney among the not-Romneys and their ads? That could be the reason.

[Volrath50]

Looks like Gingrich's brief "coalition" consisted of both establishment voters and conservative voters. Now that he's collapsed nationally, they are splitting off to both Santorum and Romney.

[Volrath50]

Mittens' coronation has been postponed indefinitely:

Romney 30% (-3)
Gingrich 20% (+3)
Santorum 13%
Ron Paul 13%
Other 9%

His lead has plummeted from 24% to 10% in less than a week.

Romney's post NH surge is starting to look similar in shape to Perry, Cain and Gringrich's. I wonder if Newt will surge ahead and then implode for a third time?

[Volrath50]

To drop 3 points in a single day in a five-day rolling average is unfathomably bad.

I'm terrible at math, but thinking about that, wouldn't Newt have probably led yesterday's poll?

[Volrath50]

Romney 31% (+1)
Gingrich 23% (+3)
Paul 14% (+1)
Santorum 12% (-1)
Other 8% (-1)

Romney's first day since the 14th where his numbers haven't fallen or stayed still. But it's also the second day in a row Gingrich has gone up by 3%.

I imagine the bump for Romney is from Perry's support scattering, mostly to Gingrich, but also a bit to Romney and Paul.

[Volrath50]

Newtmentum slows ever so slightly

Romney 30% (-1)
Gingrich 25% (+2)
Paul 13% (-1)
Santorum 12%
Other 6% (-2)

We still haven't even had any reasonable reading after SC yet

Yep, and Perry still hasn't been fully phased out. Gingrich is almost certainly going to be on top in a few days.

[Volrath50]

Excellent. I was really worried for that day or two that that there was no change that Santorum was about to start falling like Gingrich. I'm hoping Rick is resistant to the sort of collapse the other ABRs have had. It probably helps that his surge was in two different parts, rather than from nothing to the lead like the other ABRs.

[Volrath50]

Looking at the poll data, February 14 seems to have been a good day for Mitt, being the last time he actually gained. That falls off tomorrow, so he should drop another point or two tomorrow.

[Volrath50]

As I predicted yesterday, Mitt loses two points. Santorum's unchanged, though. Lets hope he hasn't peaked.

[Volrath50]

Santorum 35% (-1)
Romney 27% (+1)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Paul 10% (-1)

I have a bad feeling about this...

Oh good god, are we seeing the beginning of a third Newt Surge?

[Volrath50]

Newt gets a point and it's a Newt surge? Please.

Well, he's gained two points in two days. I was probably overreacting, but my first reaction these days to seeing Gingrich climbing is to think he's about to surge again...

[Volrath50]

Last two days:

March 1:
Romney 35% (+2)
Santorum 24% (-1)
Gingrich 15% (-1)
Paul 11% (NC)

March 2:
Romney 35% (NC)
Santorum 24% (-1)
Gingrich 15% (+1)
Paul 11% (NC)

Romney's failure to gain today makes me happy. Hopefully he has reached the peak of his surge, and will start declining.

[Volrath50]

Today's Gallup makes me sad, but I am consoled by the fact that history shows that Gringrich or Santorum will probably surge again, somehow.

But if Romney now leads forever more, I am a sad panda.

[Volrath50]

Today's Gallup almost made me spit out my tea in surprise.

Romney: 34% (-4)!
Santorum: 24% (+2)
Gingrich: 15% (NC)
Paul: 12% (NC)

I think 4 points is the single biggest movement of any candidate in a single day. Are people getting cold feet about Romney just before Super Tuesday? I hope so. But yeah, Mitt just lost a whopping 6 points of his lead in a single day, something so far not seen except during massive surges.

I'm hoping this isn't just a huge outlier yesterday, and a prelude to a huge surprise upset today.