Daily Gallup GOP Tracking Poll Thread

[jmc247]

Do you guys think Mitt will break 50%, and if so, when?

Yes, within 10 days of winning on April 3rd. According to the NY Times today a whole bunch of the establishment that were waiting for the 'right time' will jump off the fense are planning to do so if Romney wins as expected on April 3rd. Alot of the media are tired of the horse race as well and are ready to crown a winner so they can get on with the general.

If he stays above 50% I do think will be up to if Newt gets out or not otherwise he goes above 50% and then I think he dips back into the mid to upper 40% range until after the April 24th races.

[jmc247]

I've gotten two Santorum fundraising e-mails today.  I think he might be having cash flow problems.

The big donors are almost certainly drying up. They don't invest on lost causes. The rank and file money is probably starting to dry up as well.

[jmc247]

Romney - 43% (+1)
Santorum - 25% (-2)
Gingrich - 11% (nc)
Paul - 10% (nc)

Gallup for Mar 30-Apr 1, 2012

We may finally see a candidate go over 50% this week.

[jmc247]

Romney's up 7% on Santorum+Gingrich, his highest yet. He reached a 5% lead in January for one day. The anti-Romneys have only been below 37% (they are now at 36%) once since before Gingrich's second surge.

Romney does have the first real stable momentum he has gotten in the race so far. Him decisively winning tonight and then as the NYTimes has said much of the rest of the party establishment who have been waiting plan to come out to endorse Romney if he wins WI this week will finally allow momentum to trump demographics in this race.

I believe my prediction of Romney going over 50% in the next ten days is still on track.

[jmc247]

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I said I guessed within 10 days after the April 3rd elections that he would hit 50% and then drop down back into the 40s basically the 50 would be a suger rush from the victories.

Given Romney was at 43% at the time I said it a 7 point short term boost from three big victories that were about to happen wasn't some wild far out guess and we still don't know if Romney's sudden large polling drop here wasn't simply a really bad sample. We should know next week.
 
Today's sample

Romney 41% (+2)
Santorum 25% (-1)
Paul 12% (nc)
 

[jmc247]

There's a very decent chance Romney could hit 50 by the thirteenth.

It looks like my prediction will come to pass assuming Gallup still keeps track of the primary numbers.

[jmc247]

Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, can we close this board now? There really is no point in keeping track of primary polls at this point. 

I think we wait a few weeks and see how it shakes out.

Gallup ended their primary polls today and will from here on out focus on the general election. I am a bit dissapointed as I was hoping to see how Santorum's supporters break. But, hopefully other polls will show us in a few days time.