Vosem's Senate Prediction

[nkpatel1279]

Vulnerable Republican held US Senate seats up in 2012 are MA(Brown-R) and NV(Heller).
Brown(R-MA),represents one of the most bluest states in the nation. He is more conservative than the ME US Senators (Snowe-R and Collins-R). His Democratic opponent-Warren-D,is a first time candidate, but is a national celebrity. Progressives from every state love Warren. 2012 MA US Senate race is going to be like the 2008 MN US Senate race (Coleman-R vs Franken-D).
Heller(R-NV), is a freshman US Senator from a purplish blue state. He is your average Conservative Republican. His Democratic opponent, Berkley-D, is a longtime US House member from the Las Vegas metro area. Berkley is a traditional Liberal Democrat.
In MA, it would take Warren, to make gaffes in the debate or campaign trail late Sept/mid Oct 2012 for Brown to win.
In NV, for Heller to win, he needs Romney to be the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee, Berkley needs Gingrich to be the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee.
Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2012 are ND(OPEN-Conrad-D),NE(Nelson-D),MT(Tester-D),MO(McCaskill-D),and WI(OPEN-Kohl-D).
ND is a Republican pickup. Red State, General Election matchup is between a generic DEM (Heitkamp-D) vs a generic REP (Berg-R).
NE is a Republican pickup. Red State, mediocre Democratic incumbent. If Republican nominee is Heineman, Nelson loses by a double digit margin, if it's Bruning, Nelson loses by a high single digit margin, if it's Stenberg, Nelson loses by a narrow margin.
MT is a Tossup. MT is a Red State, but Democratic incumbent Tester is personally likable. Republican challenger Rehberg is Conrad Burns Part 2.
MO is a Tossup. Purplish Red State, Democratic incumbent McCaskill is personally likable. Republican challenger Akin or Steelman are traditional right wingers.
WI depends on who the Republican nominee is. If its Thompson, Republican pickup. Moderate Republican vs Liberal Democrat. If its Neumann or Fitzgerald, Tossup but Democratic lean. Democratic nominee Baldwin is more liberal than Kohl and Feingold. Neumann and Fitzgerald are right wingers. Either Neumann or Fitzgerald will win the Republican primary.

[nkpatel1279]

Scott Brown (R-MA) average poll numbers against Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is at 44% while Warren is at 42%. That leaves the 14% undecided voters. Brown gets 1/3 of the undecided voters. Warren gets 1/2 of the undecided voters. Warren-D wins by a 49-48,50-48,51-48 margin. The undecided voters are unlikely going to vote for Brown but they are waiting to see how Warren performs until they commit to her.