This will be updated semi-regularly until the actual election (I hope). No details; just a map.
Republicans gain 5 seats, Democrats gain 1. Should be obvious. I'm going with a mathematical model -- averaging the last 3 polls from different companies. If PPP's conducted 4 polls, I just take the most recent one, no averaging. If there's a single different one from a few months ago, it gets included. I get my polling from RCP; if a poll isn't included, ask them.
The two independents are counted as Democrats for the purpose of this exercise. Republicans take the Senate, 51-49.
Obviously this map will change dramatically by Election Day.
Dems flipping NV but not MA seems unlikely. Everything else looks very reasonable. It's fascinating that the Senate is polling at essentially an exact tie right now.
