State Legislative Chambers in LA, MS, and VA

[rbt48]

What about the Virginia State Senate?  It is currently 22D, 18R.  I remember the Democrats gaining 5 seats to take a 21 to 19 advantage in 2007, then adding one more in a special election when the new Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, vacated his seat.

Is this likely to change one way or the other?

[Frodo]

What about the Virginia State Senate?  It is currently 22D, 18R.  I remember the Democrats gaining 5 seats to take a 21 to 19 advantage in 2007, then adding one more in a special election when the new Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, vacated his seat.

Is this likely to change one way or the other?

Johnny Longtorso wrote up a pretty good analysis over in Daily Kos (which he also linked to earlier in this thread).  I would be curious to see if he has done any updates on the races since then.  

Edit: he did actually do an update, though this was back in early September.   

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'll have one more update prior to the election, once the final fundraising reports come out. Basically I see it as a tossup. It's really hard to predict, though, since there's no polling.

[Harry]

Mississippi elected a Democratic Senate in 2003 and 2007, but defections flipped them during the term. So it doesn't really matter which party wins in November - Republicans will convince enough right-wing "Democrats" to change if the will of the people doesn't go their way.

[Frodo]

I'll have one more update prior to the election, once the final fundraising reports come out. Basically I see it as a tossup. It's really hard to predict, though, since there's no polling.

Is it ready?

[Meeker]

I'll have one more update prior to the election, once the final fundraising reports come out. Basically I see it as a tossup. It's really hard to predict, though, since there's no polling.

Is it ready?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/10/31/1031958/-2011-Virginia-General-Assembly:-Final-Race-Rankings?via=sidebytagfeed

[rbt48]

I must admit, I'm surprised at the lack of comments on this thread.  We are within 48 hours of election returns starting to be available for the New Jersey, Virginia, and Mississippi.  

What effect (if any) will the recent Corzine financial implosion have on the NJ legislative races?

Anyone care to toss out predictions for the three states?  Here are mine:

NJ Senate:  22 D, 18 R
NJ Assembly: 43 D, 37 R

MS Senate: 29 R, 23 D
MS House:  62 R, 60 D

VA Senate:  21 R, 19 D
VA House:   63 R, 36 D, 1 I

[shua]

VA Senate: 20 R, 20 D
VA House: 64 R, 35 D, 1 I

[Torie]

Here is another guy's predictions about the Virginia State Senate outcome. He may be a  Pubbie partisan.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is another guy's predictions about the Virginia State Senate outcome. He may be a  Pubbie partisan.

Some of his ratings are full of crap.  Barker a likely loser in a D+6 district?  Puller in a tossup in a D+10 district?  Republicans didnt even pick up any seats like this in 2010.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

NLS is ostensibly a Democratic activist/political consultant, but his site has become such a gossip rag in the past few years and he's developed so many random grudges against Democratic politicians that I find him hard to take seriously as a political analyst. Plus he likes to rate as many races as "tossup" as possible so he can maintain his "99.7% accurate" claim. After all, whichever side wins, he's right, it was a tossup.

That said, I really don't think anyone can accurately predict what's going to happen tomorrow; turnout in these off-off-year elections is wildly erratic, and there's been no polling.

[Former Moderate]

The races to watch in New Jersey are thus:

State Senate
There are only two real "battleground" races. In District 2, State Sen. Whelan (D) faces a too-close-to-call battle against Republican Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). In District 38, Sen. Bob Gordon (D) may be on the ropes in an already tough race after a solid week of bad press and conflicts with organized labor over the Xanadu project. Both candidates in SD38 are on NYC network TV with ads.

Republicans have a far lesser shot at District 14, where Megan's Law dad Richard Kanka is facing off against first-term Sen. Linda Greenstein (D). No GOP seats appear to be in danger.

My best guess is that the GOP goes +1 in the State Senate.

State Assembly
Democrats have a stronger majority in the State Assembly, so perhaps it should be no surprise that the GOP found more targets to chase after there.

The GOP-friendly District 1 will be a perpetual target, though Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D) has shown the ability to generate genuine coattails in the past. Likely Dem hold x2.

The far more marginal District 2 offers a solid shot for Democrats to gain territory -- incumbent Rep. Polistina is seeking the Senate. Still, polling here shows Republicans likely to hold both seats. Likely GOP hold x2.

GOP Assemblyman DiCicco was a surprise winner on Election Day 2009, picking up a seat in the heavily Democratic 4th District. Redistricting threw him into District 3, and he was written off for dead. That may have been premature -- polling shows DiCicco an even money shot to win one of the two Assembly seats here.

District 7 is strongly Democratic territory, but Republicans think they can pick up a pair of Assembly seats here for a variety of reasons. First, the ticket is led by the incredibly popular State Sen. Diane Allen (R), who has shown a strong ability to deliver coattails in the past. Second, one of the two Assembly seats is open. Third, the GOP has a strong candidate for at least one of the seats in the mayor of Mount Laurel. Fourth, redistricting made this area about 5 points more Republican on the whole. This is probably too-close-to-call.

District 11 recently rose to prominence as a contested zone when Republicans launched a poorly received attack ad at their Dem opponents. This is genuinely GOP territory, but Democrats may be able to make inroads here with a strong candidate thanks to a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

District 14: More competitive on paper than in reality. Expect a solid Democratic hold of both seats.

District 18 was another surprise on Election Night 2009 -- not because Republicans won it, but because they almost did. It's heavily Democratic territory in Middlesex, but all indications are that this area is getting less Democratic and more competitive. Republicans think they have a chance here with Marcia Silvia, who has received a number of endorsements from key Democrats in the area. Also helping the GOP: A number of high-profile corruption charges against Middlesex County Democrats. Republicans shouldn't win here, but Christie was just here campaigning the other day, suggesting that there's at least a glimmer of hope for Team Blue ...

District 27 was made significantly more Republican thanks to redistricting, but with former Gov. Codey topping the ballot, there's real question as to whether GOP attempts at the district are serious. Most are writing a strong GOP campaign here off as "preparing for the future,"possibly for 2013 if the former Governor runs against Christie.

District 38: If Democrats are struggling to hold the Senate seat in D38, then surely the two assembly seats must be vulnerable on some level as well.

My best guess for the Assembly is no change -- a swap of Jim Keenan in LD7 for DiCicco in LD3.

[rbt48]

Does anyone have AP websites for election returns for tonight for Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Kentucky? 

I know the Kentucky SOS site has traditionally reported quite quickly athttp://elect.ky.gov/results/Pages/default.aspx. 

Virginia's site is http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/Election_Results_for_2011.html

[Harry Hayfield]

Using the results from the 2007 state house elections on Ballotpedia, here's a sort of battleground list for 2011

5% swing needed to gain
111, 43, 20, 19, 71, 25

10% swing needed to gain
45, 34, 78, 105, 2

15% swing needed to gain
86, 3, 79, 66

[rbt48]

Using the results from the 2007 state house elections on Ballotpedia, here's a sort of battleground list for 2011

5% swing needed to gain
111, 43, 20, 19, 71, 25

10% swing needed to gain
45, 34, 78, 105, 2

15% swing needed to gain
86, 3, 79, 66

Apologies for my denseness, Harry, but I don't follow what your numbers mean.

[Frodo]

Decided to pull this from another thread just to keep it on track:

Oh, and if a new election is ordered in Mississippi, the Republican margins will be maintained pretty much as they are.  If the new legislature is given the opportunity to draw the boundaries, for sure.  If they are court ordered, I still don't see much advantage for the Democrats there as black majority districts would be protected leaving the Republican districts in tact.

By January next year there will be -I think- 8 white Democrats in the Senate, and around 20 in the House.  With the Republican takeover of the legislature and subsequent redistricting next year, I fully expect their current margins in both houses padded to such an extent as to make any possible comeback by Mississippi Democrats improbable and extremely difficult.  I would not be surprised if the final totals in the Senate results in a 35:17 GOP majority, and a 75:47 margin in the House.  As in Georgia, Alabama, and elsewhere in the Deep South, around 90% of all elected Democrats in Mississippi will be African-American.  

[smoltchanov]

Well, the difference with the past is that party-switchers from Democrats to Republicans in Deep South in the past were very conservative Democrats, undistinguishable in their voting records from conservative Republicans (sometimes - even more conservative), while last party switchers (like state Senator and state Representative in Mississippi, who switched after recent election) are, essentially, white centrists (at least - by that state standards). That's may be very troubling future tendency for party. I easily see about quarter of 22 (by majorityinms.com count) white Democratic members of Mississippi House switching during this 4-year legislative term, both because of conservatism of some of them and desire to be in majority of other. The same, essentially, took place in Louisiana during last (2008-2011) electoral term... The Democtatic party in Deep South rapidly becomes "Black party" with some whites from big urban or university areas in addition....

[Frodo]

It's official: the GOP has captured the Mississippi House with 62 seats -with two more still undecided. 

[rbt48]

It's official: the GOP has captured the Mississippi House with 62 seats -with two more still undecided. 

Here is the story from the Jackson Clarion Ledger:
http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20111114/NEWS/111114023/Rep-Philip-Gunn-backed-House-speaker?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home

[Frodo]

I'll have one more update prior to the election, once the final fundraising reports come out. Basically I see it as a tossup. It's really hard to predict, though, since there's no polling.

With an evenly split Senate and a two-thirds majority in the House of Delegates, do you think the Virginia Republican Party would have better off in the Senate if they had decided to hold off redistricting until next year?  Would they have won an outright majority in the Senate with the old districts? 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'll have one more update prior to the election, once the final fundraising reports come out. Basically I see it as a tossup. It's really hard to predict, though, since there's no polling.

With an evenly split Senate and a two-thirds majority in the House of Delegates, do you think the Virginia Republican Party would have better off in the Senate if they had decided to hold off redistricting until next year?  Would they have won an outright majority in the Senate with the old districts? 

Wouldn't have been an option, it would have gone to the courts. A court-drawn map would probably have resulted in a Republican takeover of the Senate but Democratic gains in the House (but not enough to gain a majority).

[rbt48]

Questions from the 2011 elections:

Has a final result in VA House of Delegate district 87 been declared?

What about the two Mississippi House districts that the Republican candidates had slim leads?

If anyone knows the answers, I do appreciate it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republican won in HD-87 by 51 votes.