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Author Topic: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014  (Read 44817 times)
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Hashemite
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« Reply #825 on: October 28, 2014, 05:42:08 pm »

Hmm, I understand that some people within PMDB would want to run a presidential candidate, given the reward would be great, but that can be dangerous, given that PMDB has already established themselves as a party of (sucking on the) system and the presidential run could put their position in jeopardy.

With that in mind, what sort of person votes PMDB?

As I've previously said in this thread, voting in Brazil is based very, very heavily on personality/candidate rather than partisanship (especially downballot). Otherwise, the PMDB is a very powerful patronage machine. Needless to say, some people receive the benefits of that patronage.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #826 on: October 28, 2014, 07:13:30 pm »
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Two days after the election Dilma has already suffered a big loss on the Chamber as a landmark decree she signed a few months ago was nullified in a landslide voting. The Senate is expected to do the same.

Dilma will have major trouble with the Congress this time out.
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« Reply #827 on: October 28, 2014, 09:28:51 pm »
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Hmm, I understand that some people within PMDB would want to run a presidential candidate, given the reward would be great, but that can be dangerous, given that PMDB has already established themselves as a party of (sucking on the) system and the presidential run could put their position in jeopardy.

With that in mind, what sort of person votes PMDB?

As I've previously said in this thread, voting in Brazil is based very, very heavily on personality/candidate rather than partisanship (especially downballot). Otherwise, the PMDB is a very powerful patronage machine. Needless to say, some people receive the benefits of that patronage.

And Eduardo Paes is the kind of charismatic, populist politician who could do well on the entire country.

Another 3rd way option I forgot earlier is Cid Gomes (PROS-CE). After 2 successful terms as the Governor of Ceará, Dilma will give him a strong cabinet position, that he could use as a springboard. His brother Ciro is always a possibility, but he's been out of public office for just too long now.

The most probable 3rd way right now is still Michel Temer, though Tongue
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« Reply #828 on: October 28, 2014, 09:44:26 pm »
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Two days after the election Dilma has already suffered a big loss on the Chamber as a landmark decree she signed a few months ago was nullified in a landslide voting. The Senate is expected to do the same.

Dilma will have major trouble with the Congress this time out.

What was the content of the decree?

It was a decree regulating forums and councils and ways of helping the participation of individuals and social movements on policy-making affairs. The decree was quickly labeled as "bolivarian" by the opposition and was not well liked by Dilma's base as well.

Then again, I do think the decree involved matters that could only be regulated by a law passed by the Congress, but in the end the discussion was more about the substance than about the formal aspect, and that's why this ended up being a defeat for Dilma.

Also, today she already started to backtrack from her commitment for a plebiscite on political reforms, as her base is also against this. Most on the base + the opposition want a referendum instead.

Also, it's believed many old, traditional politicians such as Gilberto Kassab, Katia Abreu and perhaps even José Sarney will be on her cabinet. Dilma is scared she'll have major governability problems and is trying to pander to the base that will try to suck as much money and cabinet posts from her as possible. With the Petrobras scandal on her mirror, perhaps that's the only way for her to delay the bubble burst. Political analysts are adamant a bloodbath is coming, and they definitely know Dilma will be sucked into it. They are just waiting until the feds end the plea bargains they're dealing with right now to leak all the info they have, that's my bet.
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« Reply #829 on: October 28, 2014, 09:59:14 pm »
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More on the base rebellion: the PMDB has told the PT they want to have the next President of the Chamber AND the next President of the Senate. The PT wanted to have the President of the Chamber. Even worse for Dilma, the PMDB wants Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) to be the President of the Chamber, and he's already actively running for the post. Dilma has an awful relationship with him and she knows she'd have an even harder time getting things done on the Chamber with him running things. The danger for her: the opposition also wants to run a name, and if there's a division within the majority, then the Presidency of the Chamber could fall on the hands of a PSDBist of a PSBist (or a PSDB puppet from a theoretically PT ally). Imagine the nightmare for Dilma. In fact, don't count out on the possibility of Eduardo Cunha approaching the PSDB to get their support in exchange of giving them power on important committees and making Dilma's life on the Chamber a misery.

Finally, more problem for Dilma on the Congress: there are 2 inquiry commissions already underway on Congress to analyse the alleged wrongdoing on Petrobras. Now those 2 will be closed in favor of a 3rd, bigger, bicameral commission. Their expectation is getting a hand on the material the feds already have.

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« Reply #830 on: October 29, 2014, 10:04:42 am »
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The most probable 3rd way right now is still Michel Temer, though Tongue

Can't we skip Michel and have Marcela as President instead? Tongue
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« Reply #831 on: October 29, 2014, 11:37:49 am »
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It was a decree regulating forums and councils and ways of helping the participation of individuals and social movements on policy-making affairs. The decree was quickly labeled as "bolivarian" by the opposition and was not well liked by Dilma's base as well.
Presented like that it looks like a classic example of politicians from all sides uniting against decisions that could force them to share their power.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2014, 11:49:27 am by swl »Logged
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« Reply #832 on: October 29, 2014, 01:01:46 pm »

... that's not his daughter.
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« Reply #833 on: October 29, 2014, 04:19:49 pm »
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http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcela_Temer

Marcela Temer is Michel Temer's wife. She can run for president in 2018. She will be exactely 35 in 2018, the minimum age for running for president.
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« Reply #834 on: October 29, 2014, 04:38:16 pm »
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According to the Brazilian Constitution, valid since 1988, Brazil is both a representative democracy and a direct democracy. The constutition established some direct democracy mechanisms. Some of them need to regulated by ordinary law. Like the one concerning the participation of Civil Society Organizations in the laws proposed by the ministries.
Although supported by the Constitution, few mechanisms were used from 1988 to now. There were only two national plebicite. In 1993, there was a plebicite to decide if Brazil would be a presidential republic, a parliamentary republic or a parliamentary monarchy. The large majority decided that Brazil would continue to be a presidential republic. In 2005, there was a referendum to decide if the gun sale would be forbidden or not. The large majority voted against gun sale ban.
In 2011, there was a state plebicite to decide if the state of Pará would be splited in three states or not. The majority decided to not split.
During this period, there were also some laws approved by the Congress whose author was not a congressman or the executive power, but a petition which had a least one million signatures.

Usually, the conservative media and a large share of the Congress dislike direct democracy mechanisms. Venezuela is often used as a strawman in the argumentation against it.
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« Reply #835 on: October 29, 2014, 05:56:18 pm »
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Actually, it was more a formal problem than a substance one: Dilma should have asked the Congress to pass a law taking care of the issue instead of trying to regulate by decree something the Constitution says that has to be done by law.
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« Reply #836 on: October 30, 2014, 11:28:23 am »
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Sorry If I keep on harping on this topic.  But reading the news right after the election as well as some of the views on this board, it seems that a lot of PSDB supporters feel that Aecio lost because of the North and Northeast.  

For their point of view, a check of the Dilma vote share against 2010 for second round yields the following chart keeping in mind that PSDB needed a swing of -6.05% against Dilma to win.

Overall                  -4.41%
North                    -0.90%
Northeast            +1.11%
Centerwest          -6.53%
South                   -4.95%
Southeast            -8.03%

So the argument goes that North and Northeast is only 1/3 of the total vote but Dilma managing keep the swing against her to pretty much zero while the other three regions had a swing of more than 7% against her.  So if North and Northeast swung against Dilma like the rest of the country Dilma would have been defeated.

My point is that PSDB should have know this after the first round of elections.  I tend to look at it from the point of view of what % of the non-Dilma/Aecio vote did Dilma get from the first round.
Here for Aecio to win Dilma must be held to 33.83% or less of the non-Dilma/Aecio vote from the first round.  Here the table by region tells a different story

Overall                  40.43%
North                    30.02%
Northeast             47.59%
Centerwest          37.06%
South                   33.26%
Southeast            41.77%

Here, we find the the North region Aecio actually was able to hold Dilma's gains from the first round to the necessary level.  It is really the Northeast and Southeast which cost Aecio the election.  Even though Aecio is strong in the Southeast overall in terms of absolute support, his campaign failed to capture enough of the Silva vote there.  You can say that is mostly because of MG where Aecio failed to get enough of the Silva vote even in his home state, but it is more then than.  Even in RJ where Aecio did well by historically standards, 51.59% of the non-Dilma/Aecio vote from the first round went to Dilma.   Also in the South where Aecio is strong, they barely got enough of the  non-Dilma/Aecio vote from the first round to win which is nowhere close to enough to offset other places.  That plus the Northeast is what lost Aecio the election.
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« Reply #837 on: October 30, 2014, 04:00:59 pm »
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Aecio lost because of the North and Northeast

Sure, that's true. So what?
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« Reply #838 on: October 30, 2014, 06:40:06 pm »
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In the first round, the distribution of votes was

Left (Dilma+Luciana+Zé Maria+Mauro Iasi+Rui) = 43.29%
Right (Aécio+Everaldo+Levy+Eymael) = 34.79%
Greens (Marina+Eduardo Jorge) = 21.92%

Considering that all the left voted for Dilma in the runoff (a simplified argument, because some far leftists nulified their votes), all the right voted for Aécio, 8.35% of the greens went to Dilma and 13.57% went for Aécio, so although both Marina Silva and Eduardo Jorge endorsed Aécio in the runoff, ~38% of their votes went to Dilma and ~62% went to Aécio.

In Rio de Janeiro, Dilma gained many new votes in the runoff because Luciana Genro did well in the first round. PSOL leaders Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys did active campaign for Dilma in the runoff. Besides, almost half of the Marina's votes in Rio de Janeiro went to Dilma because most of these votes came from poor people.
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buritobr
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« Reply #839 on: October 31, 2014, 09:34:51 pm »
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Good analisys of the Brazilian election mada by political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida. Although Almeida is pro-PSDB, he did a non partisan analisys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOU_cW6eZCk

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« Reply #840 on: November 04, 2014, 05:23:56 pm »
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I cannot believe no one has done it yet...

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

Congrats, Phil!
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« Reply #841 on: November 09, 2014, 03:52:01 pm »
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Now I updated the Atlas of the Brazilian Presidential Elections

https://sites.google.com/site/atlaseleicoespresidenciais/

It is inspired on Dave Leip's, but it is much less sophisticated.

I added the 2014 data. Only the results at município level are missing. I will take some time to add them.
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« Reply #842 on: November 15, 2014, 12:57:36 pm »
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I made a ranking of the post-redemocratization Brazilian presidential elections considering how important/interesting/consequential they were

http://blogdomarcelobrito.blogspot.com.br/2014/11/o-ranking-das-eleicoes-presidenciais.html

1st: 2006
2nd: 1989
3rd: 2002
4th: 2014
5th: 2010
6th: 1994
7th: 1998
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« Reply #843 on: November 27, 2014, 03:41:21 pm »
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Today, Dilma Rousseff confirmed that Joaquim Levy will be her Minister of Finance during her second term, and Nelson Barbosa will be her Minister of Planning.

Joaquim Levy is a Chicago Boy. He worked in the Ministry of Finance, in lower positions, during the second term of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the first term of Lula.
He promised spending cuts.

Nelson Barbosa is keynesian, but not a very un-orthodox keynesian. He worked with minister Guido Mantega in the Ministry of Finance between 2006 and 2013.

The second term will have more conservative economic policies, in order to calm down the financial markets.
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« Reply #844 on: February 27, 2015, 12:40:43 pm »
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Reading stuff like  Moody's downgrades Petrobras to junk and  Brazil aims to generate 72 billion reais ($25 billion) in budget cuts and revenue this year, as it seeks to stave off a possible sovereign downgrade. Plus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/rousseff-braces-for-turmoil-as-brazil-awaits-graft-list

Rousseff Braces for Turmoil as Brazil Awaits Congress Graft List

Makes me feel the same way back in Nov.  Rousseff and PT were better off losing this election.
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« Reply #845 on: February 27, 2015, 06:13:53 pm »
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2015 will be not a good year for Brazil

Inflation was 6.5% last year, and it is close to the top of the target. High inflation in Brazil is usually decreased through currency overvaluation. However, the real needs to be undervalued, because Brazil had a big current account deficit last year. So, we will need a recession in order to reduce the inflation. But recession causes smaller tax revenue, and so, there is another problem, the budget deficit...

And Petrobras stocks are getting cheaper and cheaper
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Charlotte Hebdo
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« Reply #846 on: February 27, 2015, 06:25:16 pm »
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Talk about the economic situation of Brazil months after the election belongs in the general Brazil thread on IG.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=148240.0
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 06:46:04 pm by Charlotte Hebdo »Logged

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