Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 06, 2016, 03:43:45 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  Hong Kong Local elections 2015
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Hong Kong Local elections 2015  (Read 694 times)
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« on: November 22, 2015, 09:05:03 am »
Ignore

Vote and counting is today.  Pro-Beijing camp tends to dominate elections at this level.  In 2011 it was Pro-Beijing 55.4% of the vote with 301 seats and Pro-Democracy camp winning 34.4% of the vote with 103 seats.   The Pro-Beijing camp won a majority in all 18 Councils. This is the first vote in HK since the protests last year.  It would be interesting to see what impact the protests last year had on the voting patterns.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2015, 09:24:40 am »
Ignore

Turnout at 43.7% as of 9:30PM, higher than any other local election up to this point by this time.  Highest before was 2003 when it was 40.7% by 9:30PM.  In theory this should be good news for the Pro-Democarcy camp but this could also be an anti-protest backlash.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2015, 09:45:34 am »
Ignore

Turnout rate relative to 2011.

Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2015, 10:04:26 am »
Ignore

Voting ended.  It will take hours for initial results to come in.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2015, 10:46:08 am »
Ignore

Note that out of the 431 seats available, the Pro-Beijing camp already won 65 seats and Pro-Democracy won 1 seat because there are due to no opposition.  The Pro-Beijing camp is facing a large number of rebel candidates where a bunch are pro-Beijing camp independents are running against the official Pro-Beijing camp party candidate.  This took place in 2011 as well but the scale of the number of rebels is much larger this year.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2015, 01:41:14 pm »
Ignore

Some small amounts of results coming in.  It seems that Pro-Beijing camp clearly has the upper hand but most likely lost some amount of votes and seats.  It will be seen how much.  Most likely not enough to really harm their domination of the various local councils. 
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2015, 02:03:59 pm »
Ignore

As more results comes in it seems better and better for the Pro-Beijing camp.  More results needed for this to be a trend.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2015, 02:33:59 pm »
Ignore

It seems the total balance of power in terms of seats is roughly the same between the Pro-Beijing and Pro-Democracy camps there does seems to be some churn as many incumbents on both sides seems to be defeated.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2015, 02:42:55 pm »
Ignore

Out of the 365 contest seats, so far it seems 58 Pro-Beijing camp elected and 23 Pro-Democracy camp elected.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1958
United States


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2015, 02:45:02 pm »
Ignore

Is that a lot for the pro democracy???
Logged


WE ARE COUNTING ON THE PEOPLE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE TO PROTECT THE CONSTITUTION AND VOTE FOR TED CRUZ
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2015, 02:48:16 pm »
Ignore

Is that a lot for the pro democracy???

Hard to say, a lot of Pro-Democracy camp incumbents getting defeated but so are a bunch of Pro-Beijing camp incumbents.  Only thing I can say is that most likely at the end it will be a wash.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2015, 02:57:47 pm »
Ignore

Pro-Democracy camp was hoping to recapture control of Sai Kung (葵青) District Council  which they lost in 2007.  This now seems very unlikely.   Another target is Sham Shui Po (深水埗) District Council where the Pro-Democracy camp also lost control in 2007.  This one the hope is still alive.  If the Pro-Democracy camp fail to re-capture Sham Shui Po then it will be a complete sweep of all Councils by the Pro-Beijing camp again.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2015, 03:07:09 pm »
Ignore

Turnout is around 47%.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2015, 04:06:27 pm »
Ignore

Out of the 365 contest seats, so far it seems 114 Pro-Beijing camp elected and 64 Pro-Democracy camp elected.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2015, 05:49:03 pm »
Ignore

One thing is clear as results are coming in, the radical parties within the Pro-Democracy camp are gaining strength relative to the moderate parties.  This will pressure the moderate parties from not making deals with the pro-Beijing establishment.  One can view these radical parties as the "Tea Party" of the Pro-Democracy camp.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2015, 06:43:42 pm »
Ignore

Out of the 365 contest seats, 229 Pro-Beijing camp elected and 136 Pro-Democracy camp elected.  I most likely overestimated the numbers for both camps as I might have miscounted some pure independents into each camp.  One way or another the Pro-Democracy camp did make some advances but given the surge in turnout it was most likely disappointing to the Pro-Democracy camp.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2015, 06:53:43 pm »
Ignore

Pro-Democracy camp came close to taking the Sai Kung (西貢) District Council but looks like will fall short 13-14.  
« Last Edit: November 22, 2015, 08:24:21 pm by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2015, 08:23:54 pm »
Ignore

Pro-Democracy camp came close to taking the Sham Shui Po (深水埗) District Council but looks like will fall short 11-12
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2015, 05:28:46 am »
Ignore

Initial count by news outlets are that Pro-Beijing camp won 298  seats and Pro-Democracy camp won 125 seats out of 431.  In 2011 it was Pro-Beijing camp 299 and Pro-Democracy 103.  So Pro-Democracy camp did gain some minor gains relative to the Pro-Beijing camp.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4154
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2015, 11:41:46 am »
Ignore

So it seems to be Pro-Beijing camp  297 seats and 54.4% of the vote and Pro-Democracy camp 123 seats with 38.9% of the vote.  In 2011 it was Pro-Beijing camp 301 seats with 55.4% of the vote and Pro-Democracy camp with 103 seats with 39.4% of the vote.    Up until 2007 it was mostly parity between the two camps but in 2007 the Pro-Beijing camp took a large lead in District Council elections both in terms of seats and votes.  It mostly has to do with the Pro-Beijing camp being about to absorb various local forces as well as internal splinters in Pro-Democracy camp lead to a loss support at the District Council level.  While the Pro-Beijing camp had a small swing against it they were able to retain majorities in all 18 District Councils despite a surge in turnout which in theory should have helped the Pro-Democracy camp a lot more.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines