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Author Topic: The downfall of social-democracy  (Read 1069 times)
Colbert
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« on: May 10, 2015, 01:14:01 pm »
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you may have noticed in recent years the decline, sometimes sharp, of social democratic parties (SDP) in Europe. I wanted to know if it was a trend. For this, I have compiled all the results of SDP of the 11 countries that have a strong SDP and elections since 1945.
The result of the election year X gives the score for the intervening years.

Then I established the average.

For 2015, I based on polls or opinions on European election 2014. Whatever.


the coutries are as follow :

united kingdom
germany
austria
belgium
netherlands
luxemburg
sweden
norway
denmark
finland
switzerland



peak in... 1961 !



and here are the years of the best result (green) and worst (red)


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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2015, 01:55:12 pm »
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I'd like to see similar numbers but done for the combined total of social democrat, green, and far left parties.
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Hydera
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2015, 01:57:32 pm »
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Their losing some of their traditional working class voter base to pizza-spectrum left wing splinter parties for not being left enough and some to right wing populist parties for allowing mass immigration.

Some portions of UKIP voters actually voted for labour in 1997.

http://www.may2015.com/featured/ukippers-are-likely-to-have-voted-tory-in-2010-but-labour-in-the-1990s/
« Last Edit: May 10, 2015, 02:01:55 pm by Hydera »Logged

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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2015, 02:00:22 pm »
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A pox on pseudointellectuals and their associated gibberish.
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2015, 02:33:42 pm »
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Me thinks the numbers won't be so bad if you add splinter green and left parties, although there is a real shift of social democrats to traditionally liberal economics in Europe.
At least there's a chance for social democratic revival in Canada.
Also social democrats in Latin America are currently at a peak.
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Senator Cranberry
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2015, 02:45:07 pm »
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There seems to be an error with your Austria data, as a) there was no election in 1982 and b) the strongest SPÖ result was scored in 1979 (51.0%).
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Colbert
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2015, 05:23:55 pm »
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A pox on pseudointellectuals and their associated gibberish.


Huh





@sen.cranberry : i don"t understand your message. The graph is not based on austrians elections only.
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2015, 05:37:22 pm »
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I was asking myself the same question after the UK election. I know for sure that the German SPD is almost dead. Gerhard Schröder was to the SPD what George W. Bush was to the GOP. And Tony Blair also hurt Labour in the U.K.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2015, 05:41:01 pm by FreeTNvolunteer »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2015, 05:49:34 pm »
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Me thinks the numbers won't be so bad if you add splinter green and left parties, although there is a real shift of social democrats to traditionally liberal economics in Europe.

I did a quick skim of results. Social Democrats are bleeding voters in three streams

1) Communist/Hardline socialist parties. e.g. Socialist Party of the Netherlands, Die Linke etc.
2) "Bourgeois" green or left-liberal parties. e.g. D66, Alliance90/Grunen, Parti Vert.
3) Anti-immigrant/far right parties e.g. PVV, Front Nationale

So, while the numbers are much better for left wing parties as a whole, there is still a leak to the far-right.
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2015, 08:10:49 pm »
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There was a pink wave in the second half of the 1990s, when Tony Blair, Lionel Jospin, Gehrard Schröder and Massimo D'Alena became prime ministers. In Europe at the beginning of 1999, I think only Spain had a right wing government.
Then, in the 21th century, the center left have been declining. The far left, the greens and the far right are growing, the center right is stable.
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buritobr
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2015, 08:13:18 pm »
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Me thinks the numbers won't be so bad if you add splinter green and left parties, although there is a real shift of social democrats to traditionally liberal economics in Europe.
At least there's a chance for social democratic revival in Canada.
Also social democrats in Latin America are currently at a peak.

Social democrats are already in decline in Latin America. Bachelet had to change all of her ministers because of the decline of her popularity. Dilma Rousseff has a 13% approval rate. Her Workers Party lost seats last year. I think the right will win the presidencial election in Argentina this year because Cristina Kischner popularity is very low.
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2015, 01:03:19 am »
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@sen.cranberry : i don"t understand your message. The graph is not based on austrians elections only.

Not the graph, but this:

and here are the years of the best result (green) and worst (red)



The best result for the SPÖ was not in 1982, because like Cranberry said, there was no election in that year. Their best result was in the 1979 election.
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2015, 03:33:06 am »
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@sen.cranberry : i don"t understand your message. The graph is not based on austrians elections only.

Not the graph, but this:

and here are the years of the best result (green) and worst (red)



The best result for the SPÖ was not in 1982, because like Cranberry said, there was no election in that year. Their best result was in the 1979 election.

Some of the others are wrong too, at least if these are supposed to be parliamentary election numbers.
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2015, 05:08:06 am »
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Me thinks the numbers won't be so bad if you add splinter green and left parties, although there is a real shift of social democrats to traditionally liberal economics in Europe.
At least there's a chance for social democratic revival in Canada.
Also social democrats in Latin America are currently at a peak.

Alas I think the social democrats in South America habe begun to peak and are collapsing in on themselves. Rousseff, Bachelet and Kirchner are all mired in corruption cases and subpar approval ratings; while even the hard left leaders seem to be encountering some sticky problems.
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2015, 08:56:57 am »
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Alas I think the social democrats in South America habe begun to peak and are collapsing in on themselves. Rousseff, Bachelet and Kirchner are all mired in corruption cases and subpar approval ratings; while even the hard left leaders seem to be encountering some sticky problems.

I'm afraid that the true socialdemocrats have been always weak in Argentina and sadly the only socialdemocratic candidate running in the next election is going to perform rather poorly. As for the 'Boliviarian' leaders, there's a world of difference between Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. While Maduro is in a downward spiral (partly due to past errors and partly to his self-destructive and aggressive behaviour), Correa and Morales are dealing with a better economic situation and a more calm environment (at least, that's the general impression).
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2015, 09:17:18 am »
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Only natural considering "old school" working class is almost extinct in western world (at least in the way old Socialism\Marxism defined it), the old working class rose to become lower middle class with the lowest section usually occupied by immigrants. This of course created tension with it's 'ethnic base' and the base's dislike to the [cultural] Liberal trends the took hold in their old parties.
ohh and add to that the decrease in union membership.
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« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2015, 05:16:05 am »
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The decline of social democracy is interesting because it has a lot of implications. The left is struggling with making this new alliance with far-left and greens working properly.
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2015, 05:23:42 am »
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The left is doing decent in South America.
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Jens
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2015, 07:41:45 am »
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@sen.cranberry : i don"t understand your message. The graph is not based on austrians elections only.

Not the graph, but this:

and here are the years of the best result (green) and worst (red)



The best result for the SPÖ was not in 1982, because like Cranberry said, there was no election in that year. Their best result was in the 1979 election.
The Danish years are wrong too. The correct ones are 1960 and 2011
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2015, 08:09:14 am »
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@sen.cranberry : i don"t understand your message. The graph is not based on austrians elections only.

Not the graph, but this:

and here are the years of the best result (green) and worst (red)



The best result for the SPÖ was not in 1982, because like Cranberry said, there was no election in that year. Their best result was in the 1979 election.
The Danish years are wrong too. The correct ones are 1960 and 2011

As are the Swedish, which should be 1968 and 2010.
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Velasco
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2015, 08:42:39 am »
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Apparently the research work contains remarkable loopholes.
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Senator Cranberry
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2015, 08:52:48 am »
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I was asking myself the same question after the UK election. I know for sure that the German SPD is almost dead. Gerhard Schröder was to the SPD what George W. Bush was to the GOP. And Tony Blair also hurt Labour in the U.K.

The "fall" of the SPD in recent elections can be explained more by Merkel's stranglehold occupation on the centre ground - easy to do when you are as ideology-less as her - than by the general decline of Social Democrats in Europe. The latter is obviously a factor as well, but the huge losses since 2005, especially when compared to the CDU, are more related to Merkel than to anything else.
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Sigmund
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« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2015, 02:53:48 am »
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the coutries are as follow :

united kingdom
germany
austria
belgium
netherlands
luxemburg
sweden
norway
denmark
finland
switzerland
Why these ones and not France, Spain, Greece, Portugal ? Their parties are as much social-democratic, or as less, as the British or the Swiss one.
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« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2015, 06:52:51 pm »
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the coutries are as follow :

united kingdom
germany
austria
belgium
netherlands
luxemburg
sweden
norway
denmark
finland
switzerland
Why these ones and not France, Spain, Greece, Portugal ? Their parties are as much social-democratic, or as less, as the British or the Swiss one.

I think the author decided to exclude Spain, Greece and Portugal because these countries had dictatorships until the mid-1970s, so it is impossible to have data from 1945 to 2015. And I think he decided to exclude France because there was a time when the communists were the biggest let-wing force, and so, the socialists (social-democratics) had a small share of the vote not because the left was weak, but because there was a bigger left-wing force.
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