Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 30, 2015, 03:03:24 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hashemite)
| | |-+  Liberia Senate Election - December 20, 2014
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Liberia Senate Election - December 20, 2014  (Read 1074 times)
Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« on: December 20, 2014, 08:30:14 am »
Ignore

Despite Ebola Liberia is going ahead with their Senate election today, half the 30 seats are up for election. The new Senators get to serve for nine years, so an attractive gig.

President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has forbidden campaigning for health and safety reasons, but the opposition claims its to protect her own Unity Party.

Former soccer star and national icon George Weah is among the candidates.

Will be an important test of how the voters judge Sirleaf's handling of the epidemic, Six out of UPs 10 Senate seats are on the line.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30553837

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberian_Senate_election,_2014
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 11:17:55 am by Hashemite »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2014, 08:53:32 am »
Ignore

Weah is running for his own Congress for Democratic Change party in Montserrado County, that includes the capital Monrovia and has 1/3 of the country's population. He is up against  the President's son Robert Sirleaf. It's a seat CDC won back in 2005 when the party was founded. So after failing to become President in 2005 and VP in 2011 it looks like he is going for something safe.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 11:06:33 am by politicus »Logged

Vega
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3014
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2014, 09:05:58 am »
Ignore

Are Liberian elections democratic? A quick glance at there Presidential elections don't show many close races. 
Logged

The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2014, 09:24:46 am »
Ignore

Are Liberian elections democratic? A quick glance at there Presidential elections don't show many close races.  

They have been since 2005.

Freedom House rates Liberia a 3 on political rights and 4 on civil rights on their 1-7 scale, that's "partly free". They accept 2-3 as Free (though I think it should be 2-2 to make sense). Its a fairly common middle of the road evaluation for developing countries with elections. Not Western standards of fairness, but a 3 means free elections with only minor irregularities. The 2005 election was widely praised as a "democratic miracle" after what the country had been through (the civil war and Charles Taylor's horror regime had just ended in 2003.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 09:52:37 am by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2014, 11:08:18 am »
Ignore

"Officials distributed 4,700 thermometers and 10,000 bottles of sanitizer to polling stations in preparation for the election. Earlier in the week, Assistant Health Minister Tolbert Nyenswah warned that anyone running a temperature higher than 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit could be removed from the line and sent for screening."
Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2014, 01:13:55 pm »
Ignore

Looking at some of the parties running, there are three holding more than one seat among the ones contested:

Sirleaf's Unity Party has 5 of the seats, it is economically liberal and also fairly non-authoritarian (="liberal") by West African standards.

National Patriotic Party is Charles Taylor's old outfit filled with people guilty of various atrocities + they actually promoted a bill that would have made homosexuality a felony caring the death penalty.. So obviously horrible people.

Alliance for Peace and Democracy is a 2005 merger of two leftist parties and seems to be a legit Social Democratic party.

Minor parties:

Weah's CDC is populist and "big talk", but he has a surprising number of the old Americo-Liberian elite on board, so hardly leftist,

National Union for Democratic Progress (sic) is another ex warlord outfit. Prince Yormie Johnson - the guy responsible for capturing, torturing, mutilating and executing ex President Samuel Doe + various massacres - is up for reelection in Nimba county, which he hopefully loses.

The rest seems to be benign, but empty shell/career vessel parties, but some of the new ones may have an ideology of sorts.

EDIT: Johnson is running as an independent, the party is not on the lists. Nimba is in the interior and only got six candidates. UP isn't even contesting it.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2014, 01:51:19 pm by politicus »Logged

Vega
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3014
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2014, 02:27:33 pm »
Ignore

Funny that Weah's party's abbreviation is "CDC".

How much influence does the U.S. have in Liberia? I imagine given Liberia's founding, it'd be closer than most other countries. 
Logged

The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2014, 12:07:11 am »
Ignore

Funny that Weah's party's abbreviation is "CDC".

How much influence does the U.S. have in Liberia? I imagine given Liberia's founding, it'd be closer than most other countries.  

Not on the level of the Samuel Doe regime where Liberia was CIAs main base in Africa and State Department could more or less run things by proxy, but Sirleafs government is pro-American, she offered to house AFRICOM and there are big USAID projects. On the other hand they also have increased cooperation with China to balance things and refused to support the Libya invasion. Then there is the cultural factor with the elite being educated in America and lots of ties to the African-American community.

Sirleaf is 76 and her son Robert seems to act like an unofficial and powerful "deputy" with the family pursuing their own interests so the Weah vs. Robert Sirleaf election is central.

EDIT: Robert used to be a US citizen and the opposition claims he never revoked his American citizenship and alleged as proof that he voted in the midterms! If true it would have made him ineligible.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2014, 09:45:58 am by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2014, 03:33:50 am »
Ignore

Preliminary results:

No numbers, but according to Liberian media the following will win:

George Weah (CDC) in Monterrado County (with Robert Sirleaf last!)

Varney Sherman (UP) for Grand Cape Mount County,
Conmeny Wesseh (UP) for River Gee County,
Steve Zargo (LP) for Lofa County
Clarice Jah (LP) for Margibi County,
Jewel Howard Taylor (NPP) for  Bong County (gay hater no. 1)
Zoe Pennue (Ind.) for Grand Gedeh County
Lahai Lansanah (NPP) for Bomi County
Bhofal Chamber (CDC)for Maryland County
Jonathan Kaipay (LP) for Grand Bassa County
Milton J. Teajay (UP) for Sinoe County
Edith Gongloe-Weh (LP) for Nimba County - so thankfully Johnson is out!

The remaining three have not been called.

So 3 seats to Sirleafs UP, 4 to LP, that was in coalition talks with CDC and seems "benign", 2 to CDC, 2 to the Horrible People in NPP and an Indie. Generally that's a consolidation behind the big parties and a win for the opposition so far, but if UP takes a couple of the remaining seats it's an okay result for them.

EDIT: The Liberty Party is officially Liberal, but led by Charles Brumskine, who was a Taylor ally until 1999, when they fell out and is a bit of a religious nutcase.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2014, 04:48:42 am by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2014, 07:40:04 am »
Ignore

Very low turnout according to reports. Hardly surprising, but I wonder if the bad result from the leftist APD is due to depressed turnout. The poor are generally more scared of the epidemic than the better off.

BBCs Africa editor on the election:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDuywArUgfQ
Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2014, 04:52:10 am »
Ignore

Results only finalized for 35% of polling places:

http://www.necliberia.org/senate2014/

Turnout 27.9%, so far. They might adjust it a bit, but its going to be awful low.
Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2014, 10:26:59 am »
Ignore

NEC has released the final results, but not yet published them on their webpage.

According to Liberian media the winners are:

Montserrado County - George Manneh Weah (CDC) 79.7%

Bomi County - Morris G. Saytumah (UP) 53.6%

Grand Cape Mount County - Varney G. Sherman (UP) 70.0%

Gbarpolu County - Daniel F. Naatehn (ANC) 29.4%

Lofa County - Joseph K. Jallah (APD) 29.2%

Bong County - Henrique F. Tokpa (Independent) 32.3%

Grand Bassa County - Jonathan L. Kaipay (LP) 57.8%

Nimba County - Prince Yormie Johnson (Independent) 62.1%

Sinoe County - Milton J. Teajay (UP) 50.2%

Grand Gedeh County - Marshall A. Dennis (CDC) 29.0%

River Gee County - Conmany B. Wesseh (UP) 26.1%

Grand Kru County - Albert Chie (Independent) 50.0%

Maryland County - Bhofa Chambers (CDC) 38.1%

Rivercess County - Wellington Geevon Smith (UP) 27.9%

One county missing from this list.

So:

UP 5
LP 1
CDC 3
APD 1
ANC 1
Indies 3

One unknown

NPP has failed to keep the two seat where they were ahead, but Johnson has unfortunately been reelected. LP has not got nearly as good as result as the early numbers predicted. All in all it seems the number of HPs has gone down a bit.

EDIT: This turned out to be pretty inaccurate.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2014, 04:36:50 am by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: December 25, 2014, 03:59:43 am »
Ignore

With 91.3% of polling stations counted and 13 of 15 counties fully counted it should be possible to call this election. The two remaining counties are Montserrado, where Weah is on a rock solid 78% with 73.8% of polling stations counted and Bomi, where the UP candidate is at 47% with 92% counted, with the runner up at 36%+.

Turnout is estimated at 25.8% now.

UP 4
CDC 2
LP 2
NPP 1 (Jewel Taylor..)
NDC 1
PUP 1
ANC 1
Indies 3 (Johnson in Nimba and two counties in the far south)

CDC was only 76 votes away from a third seat in Maryland County, that went to an Indie and maybe they will demand a recount down there, but otherwise this should be it.

The left wing in APD got wiped out and lost both seats, probably due to low turnout. Four seats to UP is also a loss. In the HPs departement NPP was cut down to one seat, but unfortunately that seat belong to Jewel Taylor and Prince Johnson is still a Senator. The ANC/PUP look like one man outfits with mostly local appeal, so de facto Indies. All in all a more fragmented Senate, which is not good for Sirleaf.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2014, 08:13:46 am by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: December 25, 2014, 08:07:07 am »
Ignore

Looking at the balance in the Senate the 15 old seats are distributed this way:

UP 5
NPP 3
CDC 2
NDC 1
LP 1
LDP 1
NUDP (Johnsons defunct  party) 1
Indepenent 1

So the new Senate is:

UP 9
CDC 4
NPP 4
LP 3
NDC 2
Ex-NUDP 2
Genuine Indies 3
Micro parties 3

Sirleaf will have difficulty creating a workable majority without CDC, so more power to George Weah - and possibly LP.

There are 1 seat up in 2016 (UP), 1 in 2018 (CDC), 12 in 2020 and 1 in 2022 (LP) before the current ones wil be up in 2023. So this "Ebola-election" will shape Liberian politics for the next 5 1/2 years.
Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: December 26, 2014, 01:07:00 pm »
Ignore

NDC is an alliance between 5 small leftist parties, so the left wing is still represented in the Senate. NDC briefly included the bad guys in NPP and Samuel Doe's old party (an odd couple..), but they both left the alliance before the Presidential election in 2011 and the rest seems legit.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2014, 02:25:18 pm by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: December 27, 2014, 01:33:09 pm »
Ignore

No change after the remaining polling stations have been counted. Final turnout a meagre 25.2%.
Logged

Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35617
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2014, 01:40:59 pm »
Ignore

No change after the remaining polling stations have been counted. Final turnout a meagre 25.2%.

That's actually not bad.

It's only 8% worse than US midterm turnout.

I thought it would be closer to 10%, considering the Ebola situation.
Logged
Charlotte Hebdo
politicus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7207
Denmark


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2014, 03:21:38 pm »
Ignore

No change after the remaining polling stations have been counted. Final turnout a meagre 25.2%.

That's actually not bad.

It's only 8% worse than US midterm turnout.

I thought it would be closer to 10%, considering the Ebola situation.

The difference in disease risk created huge differences between various parts of the country. Turnout was lowest in the capital region with 20.1%, but 38%+ in a nearby county and above a third in the entire south.

It was a midterm, but the last general election in 2011 had a  74.9% turnout, and they are not on US turnout levels.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2014, 03:24:11 pm by politicus »Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines