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| | |-+  (Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018.
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Author Topic: (Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018.  (Read 5802 times)
Charlotte Hebdo
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« Reply #100 on: December 28, 2014, 12:23:32 am »
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So is Sweden becoming more and more like Austria where the major parties end up forming perpetual grand coalitions to keep out the neo-nazi racist party?

Well as I'm sure you can understand DL, it is either going the Austrian way, or the Danish way.  

The Austrian Way on this issue includes the large conservative party being in government with the right wing populists for five years after which there is a split between fundis and moderates in the right wing populist party and the moderates subsequently wither away. So it is the result of a quite specific set of circumstances and not likely to repeat itself.

Sweden has a different party system with a far more fragmented centre-right than Austria and they lack anything close to the Kronen Zeitung to legitimize bigotry of all sorts (on the contrary even the popular Swedish press is quite PC). So Austria is not an apt comparison. SD is unlikely to grow to a similar strength and you lack the "we have tried working with these people and they are useless" experience on the centre-right.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2014, 12:52:29 pm by politicus »Logged

Charlotte Hebdo
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« Reply #101 on: December 28, 2014, 01:14:15 am »
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While there are several politicians in at least five out of the seven other parliamentary parties who would openly or secretly welcome a similar development to Denmark, there are as many in the parties who would rather leave their party than stand any form of nearing to the Sweden Democrats because of this.
 

1. I imagine this segment must be quite small in Folkpartiet. How is the status in Centre?

2. KD seems already to have begun adjusting their immigration policy in a tougher direction.

3. At the end of the day the party that matters is the Moderates. If Sweden were to follow a  "Danish way"  (or even a "Norwegian way" with a shared government) SD and M could do it without the two small liberal parties and under the right circumstances also without KD.

So it is the internal dynamics in M that will be decisive, incl. whether the party is prepared to dump their Social Liberal option(s) (as the Liberals in Denmark dropped theirs). It is worth remembering that you risk handing over "free" coalition partners to the SocDems if you take that road as a Conservative party. The Danish Liberals did it in a situation where two of our three centrist parties were already "dead" (or dying in the case of KrF/KD).
The fact that the small Swedish centre-right parties are quite right wing on economics at the moment may make this less risky.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #102 on: December 28, 2014, 04:14:19 am »
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Kronenberger Zeitung

Kronen Zeitung, not Kronenberger Zeitung.

Or just "Krone".

But otherwise you are right with your analysis.
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Swedish Cheese
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« Reply #103 on: December 28, 2014, 06:04:55 am »
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So is Sweden becoming more and more like Austria where the major parties end up forming perpetual grand coalitions to keep out the neo-nazi racist party?

Well as I'm sure you can understand DL, it is either going the Austrian way, or the Danish way. 

The Austrian Way on this issue includes <snip>

When I say the Austrian way, I mean it as a simplified way of saying broad cooperation from left and right. I am of course aware of the fact that it isn't entirely correct historically as Austria (together with Italy) was the first Western European country to open up to a so called populist xenophobic party, even before Denmark. Just as when I say the Denmark way, that is only a simplified way of saying the other parties adapting to and including the party.

1. I imagine this segment must be quite small in Folkpartiet. How is the status in Centre?

2. KD seems already to have begun adjusting their immigration policy in a tougher direction.

3. At the end of the day the party that matters is the Moderates. If Sweden were to follow a  "Danish way"  (or even a "Norwegian way" with a shared government) SD and M could do it without the two small liberal parties and under the right circumstances also without KD.

So it is the internal dynamics in M that will be decisive, incl. whether the party is prepared to dump their Social Liberal option(s) (as the Liberals in Denmark dropped theirs). It is worth remembering that you risk handing over "free" coalition partners to the SocDems if you take that road as a Conservative party. The Danish Liberals did it in a situation where two of our three centrist parties were already "dead" (or dying in the case of KrF/KD).
The fact that the small Swedish centre-right parties are quite right wing on economics at the moment may make this less risky.
   

Folkpartiet is an odd party. It might be a correct analysis that the segment is smaller in FP, historically they have been the most pro-immigration party on the right, and despite the fact that Venstre is their official Danish sister party, when you look at their historic base and roots they're much more closely aligned to Radikale, which of course tells you something. But they were also flirting with the idea of stricter immigration policies in the early 2000's, and it was the FP mayor of Landskrona (now a Member of Parliament) who first neared SD on the local level, so it isn't entirely sure that it is smaller.

I could write an entire novel on the divisions on this issue within my own party, heck I could probably write a book just around my own local party club's division, but I'll leave it at the fact that such a section exist, and are in certain local councils very influential. But this is the party that two years ago was saying they might want completely free immigration so it isn't we that will take the leap.

The Moderates probably has the largest section, and while the similar sections in C, FP, and S who work very discretely, there are several people in the party openly calling for the Moderates to take that direction. That being said, between Reinfeldt and Anna Kinberg Batra the national leadership is dead-set against it.

KD is the obvious candidate. They're a Conservative party with Conservative values (make of that what you wish) and they desperately need a winning profile issue, and in difference to M, C, and FP their youth-wing isn't against the idea, quite the opposite Christian Democratic Youth could actually be described as the cheerleaders of such a development. Still even if they were to take the plunge... it's KD, their influence and the grand scale of things is well...   
 
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« Reply #104 on: December 28, 2014, 06:20:03 am »
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The Liberal People's Party is traditionally the most pro-immigrant?

I'm sure I remember about a decade ago the BBC was lumping them in with the National Front and Pim Fortuyn because they supposedly questioned immigration. Although the comparison itself was obviously sensationalist I imagine there was at least a little truth to the Liberals taking on the immigration issue.
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« Reply #105 on: December 28, 2014, 06:37:43 am »
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The Liberal People's Party is traditionally the most pro-immigrant?

I'm sure I remember about a decade ago the BBC was lumping them in with the National Front and Pim Fortuyn because they supposedly questioned immigration. Although the comparison itself was obviously sensationalist I imagine there was at least a little truth to the Liberals taking on the immigration issue.

If you'd read the entire section, you'd have had the answer. 

Folkpartiet is an odd party. It might be a correct analysis that the segment is smaller in FP, historically they have been the most pro-immigration party on the right, and despite the fact that Venstre is their official Danish sister party, when you look at their historic base and roots they're much more closely aligned to Radikale, which of course tells you something. But they were also flirting with the idea of stricter immigration policies in the early 2000's, and it was the FP mayor of Landskrona (now a Member of Parliament) who first neared SD on the local level, so it isn't entirely sure that it is smaller.
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« Reply #106 on: December 28, 2014, 06:45:31 am »
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What is the majority view in Sweden with regards to immigration? In most countries the pressure for immigration restrictions isn't only due to far-right party strength, but also to the fact that most of the right-wing electorate shares their view of this topic. Maybe the reason why right-wing parties haven't aligned with the SD is because their base wouldn't necessarily follow them?
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« Reply #107 on: December 28, 2014, 07:30:19 am »
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What is the majority view in Sweden with regards to immigration?

There was an opinion poll on the topic in May by SIFO which gave the following:

44% - Immigration is too high.
36% - Immigration is at a good level as is.
10% - Immigration is too low. 
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Charlotte Hebdo
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« Reply #108 on: December 28, 2014, 07:45:47 am »
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Folkpartiet is an odd party. It might be a correct analysis that the segment is smaller in FP, historically they have been the most pro-immigration party on the right, and despite the fact that Venstre is their official Danish sister party, when you look at their historic base and roots they're much more closely aligned to Radikale, which of course tells you something. But they were also flirting with the idea of stricter immigration policies in the early 2000's, and it was the FP mayor of Landskrona (now a Member of Parliament) who first neared SD on the local level, so it isn't entirely sure that it is smaller.

I could write an entire novel on the divisions on this issue within my own party, heck I could probably write a book just around my own local party club's division, but I'll leave it at the fact that such a section exist, and are in certain local councils very influential. But this is the party that two years ago was saying they might want completely free immigration so it isn't we that will take the leap.
 

Actually Radikale started as a strange alliance of the sort of people that founded Folkpartiet with the poorest part of the Centre basis. No Swedish party resembles Venstre in any meaningful way.

Too bad you did not feel like breaking down the internal division in Centre on immigration. I would be very interested in that.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #109 on: December 28, 2014, 09:38:55 am »
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Sweden has a different party system with a far more fragmented centre-right than Austria and they lack anything close to the Krone Zeitung to legitimize bigotry of all sorts (on the contrary even the popular Swedish press is quite PC). So Austria is not an apt comparison. S

Thinking about it, the Kronen Zeitung's popularity is probably because of their A4-format while all the other major & more in-depth newspapers (such as the Standard, Presse, Kurier, Wr. Zeitung, SN, etc.) all use the more reader-unfriendly and huge A3-format. Maybe if the other newspapers would switch to A4 format, they would get more readers too. Now, the Krone has 3 Mio. daily readers (every 2nd Austrian voter), while other newspapers are well below 1 Mio. daily readers.

That doesn't explain the Krone's populism and bigotry of course.
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« Reply #110 on: December 28, 2014, 12:03:41 pm »
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I find the idea of Sweden's cancelling an election very amusing.

Did SAP basically win this budget negotiation against the Alliance?

Looking at the in-campaign polling figures, SD was very strong, but not strong enough to support one of the two large parties on its own. They needed a small party to join, too. So two parties would have to defect to immigration-control policies at the same time. On the other hand, neither SAP+MP nor Alliance could form a government without massive compromises, and a grand coalition would make much more sense. Furthermore, SAP and SD were the most influential parties: Any government required support from one of them. So the natural outcome would be SAP+M.

Sweden has a different party system with a far more fragmented centre-right than Austria and they lack anything close to the Krone Zeitung to legitimize bigotry of all sorts (on the contrary even the popular Swedish press is quite PC). So Austria is not an apt comparison. S

Thinking about it, the Kronen Zeitung's popularity is probably because of their A4-format while all the other major & more in-depth newspapers (such as the Standard, Presse, Kurier, Wr. Zeitung, SN, etc.) all use the more reader-unfriendly and huge A3-format. Maybe if the other newspapers would switch to A4 format, they would get more readers too. Now, the Krone has 3 Mio. daily readers (every 2nd Austrian voter), while other newspapers are well below 1 Mio. daily readers.

That doesn't explain the Krone's populism and bigotry of course.

The British broadsheet press tried this (except The Telegraph); circulation continued to fall. My theory is that broadsheet readers have desk jobs and were earlier adapters of online news, whereas the tabloids sell better to people in manual jobs and homemakers, where idle web-browsing time is more limited. So, the popular newspapers remain popular.
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Hal Jam
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« Reply #111 on: December 29, 2014, 11:44:34 am »
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Speaking of Austrian-way or Danish-way, you can also be on track for the French-way : far-right fascist-ish party that nobody except a few right-wing hawks wants to work with eventually finds the voters to grow to first place and win local elections on its own.

Not sure about national ones, be it France or Sweden.
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