Israeli election and demographic maps

[Sibboleth]

It's mostly an ethnic issue, even if that might not be quite the right word. The Israeli Left (however defined) has almost always been a very Ashkenazi thing. Mapai and then Labour never really bothered to reach out to the Sephardi communities when it mattered, leaving them to Likud. Some interpretations of that fact are not especially charitable. Of course if you're looking in terms of raw socio-economic tendencies, things can quickly get very complicated in Israel, because of the various Religious (big 'r' important) communities.

[danny]

Huhh thats rather interesting... my guess is wealth=education=knowledge of the issues... therefore they are more likely to vote for parties who are less reactionist. Thats my leftwing analogy.

Like you mentioned above the religious groups seem to vote along different paterns, do the Ashkenazi, Sephardi, Mizrahi, Beta ... (missing any?) vote along those paterns?

Secular ashkenazis, the historic "elites" and founders, are the base of the left.
Sephardi/Mizrahi vote for the right (Likud and Shas).
Beta (Ethiopians) are a new immigrant and very poor group and also vote mostly for the right.
There are also the immigrants that came from the USSR after its collapse who nowadays also vote for the right (Yisrael Beitenu and Likud)

The long term problem of the left is that its base has a slower population growth than the country as a whole.

[danny]

Map of Kadima strength:

[danny]

And Likud:

[danny]

Haifa district:
population 913,000

Big cities:
Haifa (268,200)
Hadera (81,500)
Kiryat Atta (51,500)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Thanks, but, can I request something with fewer jews I'm much more curious how places full of Arabs vote!

[Sibboleth]

I think you'll find that Umm Al-Fahm is full of Arabs...

[danny]

Thanks, but, can I request something with fewer jews I'm much more curious how places full of Arabs vote!

They generally vote like the southeast part of the Haifa district, except for the south where everyone votes UAL.

[Vasall des Midas]

Oh yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid Arab-majority part there. Possibly even some of the Jewish-colored nearby municipalities thanks to vote splitting?

[danny]

Oh yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid Arab-majority part there. Possibly even some of the Jewish-colored nearby municipalities thanks to vote splitting?

No, There are no Jewish minority towns in Israel, all cities and villages in Israel either have a Jewish majority (usually with no Arabs and a few with an Arab minority) or a basically non-existent one. What that area has is something that isn't uncommon at all in Israel, which is a 99+% Arab town adjacent to a 99+% Jewish one.

[Vasall des Midas]

Oh yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid Arab-majority part there. Possibly even some of the Jewish-colored nearby municipalities thanks to vote splitting?

No, There are no Jewish minority towns in Israel, all cities and villages in Israel either have a Jewish majority (usually with no Arabs and a few with an Arab minority) or a basically non-existent one. What that area has is something that isn't uncommon at all in Israel, which is a 99+% Arab town adjacent to a 99+% Jewish one.

Yeah. That sounds logical. It was just the appearance of all three Arab parties next to each other that made me wonder.
So is that a random occurrence or is it normal for Arab towns to vote en bloc for one of the three?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Oh yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid Arab-majority part there. Possibly even some of the Jewish-colored nearby municipalities thanks to vote splitting?

No, There are no Jewish minority towns in Israel, all cities and villages in Israel either have a Jewish majority (usually with no Arabs and a few with an Arab minority) or a basically non-existent one. What that area has is something that isn't uncommon at all in Israel, which is a 99+% Arab town adjacent to a 99+% Jewish one.

There is a part of the north that's very Arab and Non-Jewish... where is my map.

[danny]

Oh yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid Arab-majority part there. Possibly even some of the Jewish-colored nearby municipalities thanks to vote splitting?

No, There are no Jewish minority towns in Israel, all cities and villages in Israel either have a Jewish majority (usually with no Arabs and a few with an Arab minority) or a basically non-existent one. What that area has is something that isn't uncommon at all in Israel, which is a 99+% Arab town adjacent to a 99+% Jewish one.

Yeah. That sounds logical. It was just the appearance of all three Arab parties next to each other that made me wonder.
So is that a random occurrence or is it normal for Arab towns to vote en bloc for one of the three?

Those towns didn't vote en bloc they just had a different percent voting for each of the three, for example:

Umm al-Fahm: Hadash-55%, Balad-24%, UAL-19%
Ar'ara: Balad-44%, UAL-32%, Hadash-21%
Baqa-Jatt: UAL-48%, Balad-39%, Hadash-5%

[danny]

Oh yeah, there seems to be a fairly solid Arab-majority part there. Possibly even some of the Jewish-colored nearby municipalities thanks to vote splitting?

No, There are no Jewish minority towns in Israel, all cities and villages in Israel either have a Jewish majority (usually with no Arabs and a few with an Arab minority) or a basically non-existent one. What that area has is something that isn't uncommon at all in Israel, which is a 99+% Arab town adjacent to a 99+% Jewish one.

There is a part of the north that's very Arab and Non-Jewish... where is my map.

Yes, the north district is 53% Arab, unfortunately, it also has a million little towns and villages
(total population of 1.3 million but the largest city is only 70 thousand) which means it will be the hardest one to do, so it won't be done anytime soon.

[Vasall des Midas]

Those towns didn't vote en bloc they just had a different percent voting for each of the three, for example:

Umm al-Fahm: Hadash-55%, Balad-24%, UAL-19%
Baqa-Jatt: UAL-48%, Balad-39%, Hadash-5%

Not exactly blockvoting, no. But a pretty damn striking difference nonetheless.

[danny]

Those towns didn't vote en bloc they just had a different percent voting for each of the three, for example:

Umm al-Fahm: Hadash-55%, Balad-24%, UAL-19%
Baqa-Jatt: UAL-48%, Balad-39%, Hadash-5%

Not exactly blockvoting, no. But a pretty damn striking difference nonetheless.

Different, yes, but pretty mild compared some other places in Israel with real bloc voting:

Ar'ara-in-the-negev (southern Bedouin): UAL-95% (2534 votes out of 2664 total)
Yitzhar (far right settlement): National Union-87%
Beit Hilkia (ultra Orthodox Moshav): UTJ-84%

[danny]

Jerusalem district
population 945,000

big cities:
Jerusalem (788,100)
Beit Shemesh (80,600)
Mevaseret Zion (24,000)

[danny]

Thanks, but, can I request something with fewer jews I'm much more curious how places full of Arabs vote!

Took a bit of time but here is the North district:

Population: 1,242,100

Religion:

Jews: 44.2%
Muslims: 37.7%
Druze: 8%
Christian:7.3%
Other: 2.8%


I labeled everything over 15k population

[Vasall des Midas]

Beautiful.

Where do the Druze live and how do they vote?

[danny]

Beautiful.

Where do the Druze live and how do they vote?

They live mostly around an area where I labeled Yarka.

Their vote is all over the place, there are majority Druze localities that voted for each of Kadima, Likud, Shas and Labour.

[Vasall des Midas]

Shas?

Now that was unexpected.

[danny]

Shas?

Now that was unexpected.

Yeah, that surprised me as well.

Actually amongst Arabs (non-Druze ) there seems to be a close fight between Shas and Labour for the biggest Jewish party. And no, I have no idea why Shas would appeal to Arabs (Labour is understandable).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Thanks, but, can I request something with fewer jews I'm much more curious how places full of Arabs vote!

Took a bit of time but here is the North district:

Population: 1,242,100

Religion:

Jews: 44.2%
Muslims: 37.7%
Druze: 8%
Christian:7.3%
Other: 2.8%


I labeled everything over 15k population

OMG thank you!!! This is going to take quite a while of time to enjoy properly. I'll finish my other Internet errands and come back here to analyse this when I can focus.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I recoloured it based on arab, moderate, and right-wing parties

[danny]

Your map Teddy, shows one of the problems for the Zionist left-centre, you can see how they couldn't win a single city.

Oh, and Yisrael Hazaka was actually a left wing party founded by a former Labourite that supported the separation of state and church.