if the supreme court strikes down the VRA...

[freepcrusher]

does that mean the IL dems can "spike" all the suburban chicago districts with blacks.

[Bacon King]

It would mean they wouldn't have any Federal law preventing them from doing so, I guess, but any map like that would be a tough sell for the black state legislators so I imagine it'd have a hard time passing.

[krazen1211]

The Illinois Constitution bars legislative mid decade redistricting.

[muon2]

The Illinois Constitution bars legislative mid decade redistricting.

Not for Congress, only for the legislature.

[Torie]

SCOTUS is not going to strike down the VRA in its entirety.

[Skill and Chance]

SCOTUS is not going to strike down the VRA in its entirety.

They wouldn't have to.  They would just need to rule that Section 2 and Section 5 do not apply to redistricting.  It's a little out there, but certainly within the realm of possibilities.

[muon2]

SCOTUS is not going to strike down the VRA in its entirety.

They wouldn't have to.  They would just need to rule that Section 2 and Section 5 do not apply to redistricting.  It's a little out there, but certainly within the realm of possibilities.

I can imagine striking section 5, particularly since Congress came close to that during the last decade. I don't see section 2 going away since there is too much weight of precedence defining the parameters of its application to redistricting. I expect that tightening the applicability will happen during this decade depending on which states have their cases go to SCOTUS.

[Skill and Chance]

This would also mean that Texas could probably draw 32 R+7 or greater districts in 2013.  But some left wing group would probably retaliate with a 2012 ballot referendum for at-large Congressional elections in California.  In short, it would be pure chaos nationwide.   

[krazen1211]

The Illinois Constitution bars legislative mid decade redistricting.

Not for Congress, only for the legislature.

True, but I see no mechanism to get those blacks out of the Jackson/Rush/Davis districts.

Part of the ultimate issue is that people are using lawsuits to settle what the Missouri judge called a political quarrel. Perhaps that always occurred, but it seems to have ramped up this cycle.

[nclib]

I wonder how aggressive the southern states' GOP would get, in the absence of the VRA...

Miss.: certainly 4 safe GOP seats
Ala.: probably 7 safe GOP seats
Ga.: probably 2 Dem seats in Atlanta, the rest safe GOP
S.C.: probably would draw a Dem or swing seat with rest safe GOP
N.C.: probably similar to actual map
La.: probably 6 safe GOP seats esp. with New Orleans losing population

Texas would probably draw a few urban or border Dem packs.

Any other thoughts...

[minionofmidas]

I can see them striking preclearance.

[krazen1211]

I wonder how aggressive the southern states' GOP would get, in the absence of the VRA...

Miss.: certainly 4 safe GOP seats
Ala.: probably 7 safe GOP seats
Ga.: probably 2 Dem seats in Atlanta, the rest safe GOP
S.C.: probably would draw a Dem or swing seat with rest safe GOP
N.C.: probably similar to actual map
La.: probably 6 safe GOP seats esp. with New Orleans losing population

Texas would probably draw a few urban or border Dem packs.

Any other thoughts...

In Texas the Democrats would get many 2 seats in Houston, 1 in Dallas, 1 in Austin/San Antonio, 2 in the Valley. Maybe 1 in El Paso if the mappers were generous.

[minionofmidas]

How do you avoid a Dem seat in El Paso County? Split it three ways with one of the three being one of those listed under "Valley"?

[krazen1211]

How do you avoid a Dem seat in El Paso County? Split it three ways with one of the three being one of those listed under "Valley"?

Split in 2 and connect with Lubbock, Odessa, Midland. Would probably never fly, though, as I don't think Reyes is hated like Doggett is.

[minionofmidas]

How do you avoid a Dem seat in El Paso County? Split it three ways with one of the three being one of those listed under "Valley"?

Split in 2 and connect with Lubbock, Odessa, Midland. Would probably never fly, though, as I don't think Reyes is hated like Doggett is.

It also wouldn't actually do the trick. At least not be certain to.



Green district here is actually (just barely) an Obama district.

So you would at the very least have to carve out the minority sections of Lubbock, in order to be able to stuff more of El Paso into that district and keep more Permian Basin in the other.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, that did it.



54.6% and 55.0% McCain 2pp, respectively. Also 55% and 65% Hispanic VAP, respectively.

And the next district after that combines Abilene, San Angelo and Laredo and anything not yet taken to the west, for 56.0% McCain and 59% Hispanic VAP. Nice.

I think I'll save this file and continue the project in the future. Not today though.

[jimrtex]

Yes, that did it.



54.6% and 55.0% McCain 2pp, respectively. Also 55% and 65% Hispanic VAP, respectively.

And the next district after that combines Abilene, San Angelo and Laredo and anything not yet taken to the west, for 56.0% McCain and 59% Hispanic VAP. Nice.

I think I'll save this file and continue the project in the future. Not today though.

One of the Hispanic advocacy groups did propose a split somewhat like that of El Paso.  TX-16 would extend over to Odessa so another 90,000 El Pasoans would be in TX-23.  The Bexar County part of TX-23 would be 19% Black.

See C211 MALC Interim Congressional Plan.  TX-33 is also interesting.

[lowtech redneck]

Ga.: probably 2 Dem seats in Atlanta, the rest safe GOP

I don't think the Republicans could get away with less than three Dem CDs in Metro Atlanta; there is a compact zone of overwhelming Democratic territory that's probably big enough for about 2.5 CDs all on its own, and Georgia voters are not as tolerant of obscene gerrymandering as the voters in Pennsylvania.  You could probably safely eliminate Bishop's district, though.

[Bacon King]

I think I'll save this file and continue the project in the future. Not today though.

Looking forward to seeing you continue this!

Also, lol at Culberson County there, less than 3k people but split between three districts.

[minionofmidas]

I think I'll save this file and continue the project in the future. Not today though.

Looking forward to seeing you continue this!

Also, lol at Culberson County there, less than 3k people but split between three districts.

I wanted to split off a few hundred people for better population balance, and those two rural precincts happened to fit the bill nicely (IIRC both districts are within 150 of ideal now) and vote heavily for Obama.

[jimrtex]

I think I'll save this file and continue the project in the future. Not today though.

Looking forward to seeing you continue this!

Also, lol at Culberson County there, less than 3k people but split between three districts.

I wanted to split off a few hundred people for better population balance, and those two rural precincts happened to fit the bill nicely (IIRC both districts are within 150 of ideal now) and vote heavily for Obama.

The precincts are:

   3-5

3-3 2 4

   1

2 and 1 are not contiguous, but 3-3 and 4 are.

I demand that 2 be moved to the purple district.

[minionofmidas]

You can, if 53% McCain 2PP is safe enough for you and you disregard incumbents for the time being, condense Democrats into three districts.



Emerald Snake 54% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% White, 91.5% Obama
West Central 47% White, 39% Hispanic, 7% Black, 53.3% McCain
Harris / Fort Bend 32% White, 32% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 16% Black, 54.1% McCain
West 37% White, 34% Hispanic, 16% Black, 11% Asian, 57.1% McCain
Galveston & points west 45% White, 33% Hispanic, 14% Black, 57.9% McCain
Pasadena 55% Hispanic, 33% White, 7% Black, 57.6% McCain
North 40% Hispanic, 37% White, 18% Black, 56.7% McCain

And that's not even using Montgomery County (MontCo district in the north sheds 27k people on its rural edges)



Golden southern Dem Pack 95% Hispanic, 5% White, 78.2% Obama
Laredo & points north 64% Hispanic, 31% White, 55.4% McCain
Corpus & points east & points south 62% Hispanic, 33% White, 54.3% McCain
Hill Country & Hidalgo green district 67% Hispanic, 31% White, 56.1% McCain
San Antonio to Lake Jackson 57% Hispanic, 36% White, 5% Black, 55.6% McCain
San Antonio to College Station 50% Hispanic, 39% White, 9% Black, 55.0% McCain
NW Bexar 46% Hispanic, 42% White, 6% Black, 55.3% McCain
E Bexar 46% Hispanic, 41% White, 9% Black, 54.1% McCain
North Austin to Temple 58% White, 25% Hispanic, 9% Black, 6% Asian, 53.2% McCain
East Austin to beyond Bryan 50% White, 36% Hispanic, 10% Black, 53.4% McCain
Central Austin & random points north 67% White, 21% Hispanic, 6% Black, 54.9% McCain
South Austin to Wichita Falls (outside the map) 68% White, 22% Hispanic, 5% Black, 53.5% McCain

And Dallas, of course, doesn't need to look much different from what the R's actually drew (though what you see in tiny detail in this map works about as well. It's a max D pack inside Dallas County - 86.0% Obama - and kinda sloppily drawn around that.)

[minionofmidas]

No comments?

I need to go cry now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No comments?

It's a thing of twisted evil. Also, he looks like a younger, Korean, Eric Pickles.

[minionofmidas]

No comments?

It's a thing of twisted evil.

I particularly like the huge district linking parts of Hidalgo with, basically, nothing in particular.