if the supreme court strikes down the VRA...

[muon2]

The Illinois Constitution bars legislative mid decade redistricting.

Not for Congress, only for the legislature.

[muon2]

SCOTUS is not going to strike down the VRA in its entirety.

They wouldn't have to.  They would just need to rule that Section 2 and Section 5 do not apply to redistricting.  It's a little out there, but certainly within the realm of possibilities.

I can imagine striking section 5, particularly since Congress came close to that during the last decade. I don't see section 2 going away since there is too much weight of precedence defining the parameters of its application to redistricting. I expect that tightening the applicability will happen during this decade depending on which states have their cases go to SCOTUS.

[muon2]

The looming question will be where conflicts arise between different minority groups. SCOTUS has already noted that you can't count a combined minority population for section 2 because their political goals do not always align. The current battle over the Chicago ward map is an excellent example. The aldermen are all of the same party, but the great drop in black population is pitting them against Latinos who would gain wards at black expense if neutral mapping was followed. But Latinos are at a disadvantage on the council to get votes needed to be more evenly represented.