I decided to do a what-if to see what the 01 CA gerrymander would look like if it was cleaner meaning that there weren't excessive county splits. Here is my map:
had this been the actual map, how do you think things would play out? Here are my observations
- Linda Sanchez is never elected to congress
- Steve Horn and Gary Miller are double-bunked due to LA county having to go down a seat
- A new district is created in San Berdoo county that Miller probably runs in.
- I don't think Horn retires and he runs in the 39th and is easily re-elected. I think he eventually retires or dies in office (he died last February). The seat would then go democrat upon his retirement or death but it would have to be a blue dog because a seat like that wouldn't elect someone like Pete Stark.
- I think the 42nd district in SB County would have a PVI of around R+6. Miller would probably be OK, but might have a close election due to his ethical baggage.
- Dreier probably would have gotten the axe in 2006 I'm guessing.
- McKeon might have had a close election in 06 or 08 as it takes in a few hispanic precincts in the SFV. He probably still wins though.
- Both Gallegly and Capps might have lost under this map.
- Calvert is a lot safer here.
- The 11th would have played out the same despite looking cleaner. Dirty Dick wins re-election in 02 and 04. After learning about his connection with abramoff, he loses in 06. McNerney has a semi-solid re-election in 08 with about a twelve point victory in 08 and has a close call in 2010.
Any other comments about the map?
Probably your right on Drier. Wasn't his current district getting more minority populated anyway as it was? I mean his current district as it was was an R+3 district. Not safe for him by any means. Now he is retiring. I think if he ran in the configured 26th it would be hard for him to win. Alot of minorities in that district I have heard. I will miss him in Congress though. He always tried to be the adult in the room.
