Alberta 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Since we have a Quebec thread up... figured might as well start this one. Earlier this week the Alberta Legislature enacted a fixed-date elections law mandating an election between March 1- June 1.

Latest polls have the PCs up 51-19 on Wildrose, with the Grits and Dippers back at 13-14% apop.

Personally, I find the idea of another PC mandate loathsome. But it looks like the dynasty will survive another 4 years- when they should be wiped off the electoral map.

[redcommander]

Ahhh my favorite Canadian province where the two main parties are a choice between Conservative and even more Conservative.

[Smid]

I've put together a map of Alberta provincial ridings, following the 2010 redistribution.

I was thinking of trying to calculate notional margins but I would prefer someone else to - I'm still going with the new Quebec map and I'd like to prioritise that rather than estimate margins. I'm particularly interested in Northeastern Calgary - it looks to me like some of the more Liberal polls have been split up and may reduce the margin or flip them to PC. I think the NDP may notionally pick up an Edmonton riding off PC, too.

Anyway, hopefully everyone will find this blank base map of Alberta provincial riding boundaries helpful. As always, there is a bigger version in the blank map gallery.

Alberta Provincial Election Map

[Smid]

Here are maps showing the 2008 Alberta provincial election results. I'm posting from my mobile, so I'll apologise in advance for spreading them over several posts. Again, they're all uploaded into the gallery, so bigger versions in there.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map

[Smid]

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Winning Margins




Bigger version in the gallery. The redistribution obviously changes some of the riding boundaries.

[Californian Tony]

Looks like a boring election ahead.

[Smid]

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - PC Primary Vote




Bigger version in the gallery.

Some of the strongest results for the Progressive Conservative Party were in rural ridings outside Edmonton, I don't think Wildrose contested those ridings, but I could be wrong - we'll see in another few maps.

[Smid]

The Liberal Party won the second-most seats in the legislature at the 2008 election:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Liberal Primary Vote

[Smid]

The NDP won two seats in Edmonton:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - NDP Primary Votes




Again, a bigger version is in the gallery.

[Smid]

The Wildrose Alliance didn't run in every seat, but still performed reasonably well. Since the election, there have been a few defections from the PC Party to the Wildrose Alliance.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - WRA Primary Vote

[Smid]

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Greens Primary Vote



Bigger version in the gallery (again).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

No kidding. To be fair, except for Ralph Klein's first two terms, they've never really been all that big on the noun.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Klien was an Alberta Liberal back when he was Mayor of Calgary. Calgary, in fact, is much more moderate than people think. It's been tainted by the MP's it elects - and even then, half of them were born in Toronto.

[Californian Tony]

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

[Hashemite]

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

It was deregistered after the last election for not doing some financial paperwork thingees

[Californian Tony]

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

It was deregistered after the last election for not doing some financial paperwork thingees

Oh God. For a few seconds I thought Albertans were even crazier than I've been told.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Thats why I like phrasing it like that

[Senator MaxQue]

They got in intense infringing (some group tried to take over leadership), which led to a two years long fight which paralysed the party for two years and saw most members leaving and most of the leadership resigning.

It was so paralysed than it asked to be unregisted when the executive of the party saw they would be unable to fill the annual reports requested by law.

They can attempt to recreate themselves (and probably will) after next election.

[Hatman]

It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.

[Smid]

I'll fix the new map to reflect Wildrose = green and Greens = doesn't exist, when I'm back from holidays after New Year's (minimal access to a computer in the interim).

I remember that about the Greens now, I was reading that their President at the time is now a Wildrose candidate...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Aye

The Green Party of Ontario and the Green Party of Canada had their own "war" back in the 90's that started very slowly. The GPC was more left wing and the GPO very slowly started to move to the right.

Over the next decade, those who agreed with the GPO took over really. GPC is now in line with the GPO (which itself has not moved) and GPBC has perhaps outdone GPO in right-wingidness. The only truly left-wing Greens left are the GPSK.

The long-story-short of the Alberta story was an attempt by the Eco Capitalists to take the party over from the Socialists, but the gulf between them was much larger than in other Green Parties in Canada. IIRC the party would have went from the most left-wing to the most right-wing Green Party in all of Canada. One half walked out of the convention, taking the chair of said meeting with them, and the other half continued with someone as chair who'd not renewed their membership, and this caused chaos. Eventually the party lost it's status. The leftos are creating their own "movement" which may or may not run candidates, while the righties are running for parties like Wildrose.

[Hatman]

Heh. Somehow I dont see the Wild Rose party to be too perceptive of any type of environmentalism.  Isn't their leader a climate change denier?

[DL]

It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.

Would the Alberta PCs under Redford be part of a "united left" in Alberta?

[RogueBeaver]

Progressives on track for another majority.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/23/alison-redford-alberta-poll_n_1166255.html?ref=canada-politics