Alberta 2012
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Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 87589 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #150 on: April 04, 2012, 07:23:33 PM »

Apparently you have to email them to get more of a break down Sad
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #151 on: April 04, 2012, 08:19:09 PM »

There was a Forum Research poll also released

WRP 43 (+2)
PC 29 (-2)
Lib 13 (+1)
NDP 10 (-1)

Calgary
WRP 48 (+1)
PC 26 (-2)
Lib 14 (+1)
NDP 8 (-)

Edmonton
PC 33 (+3)!
WRP 26 (-5)!
NDP 18 (-)
Lib 16 (-1)

North
WRP 49 (+3)
PC 29 (-)
Lib 9 (+1)
NDP 7 (-2)

South (incl Red Deer)
WRP 57 (+11)!
PC 24 (-5)
Lib 8 (-2)
NDP 6 (-5)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #152 on: April 04, 2012, 08:24:17 PM »

The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #153 on: April 04, 2012, 08:27:30 PM »

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/6404846/story.html

NDP Balanced Budget platform... could be(probably is) an attempt to lure Liberals over to their camp espcially in Edmonton.
Last election the PCs were stronger in Edmonton b/c Stelmach had the local boy effect, if you look at 2004 the Lib/NDP held all but three edmonton seats. This year the PC/WR leaders are both Calgary gals so Edmonton is going to be a battle between for who in the opposition can win over more voters.
If WR sweeps, it will be interesting to see which seats stay PC and weather its based more on local political leanings of the MLA themselves

It might also due to strategic voting too.  Many not on the right will vote for whomever is most likely to stop the most right wing party and considering the PCs are doing much better than the Liberals or NDP, so might vote PCs for that reason never mind Alison Redford is pretty centrist anyways.  I know many on the centre-left who despised Klein, Harper, and Manning but would have no problem supporting Redford.  In fact that is partly why the WRA is doing so well is many Conservatives don't see her as a real conservative.  

Given the dynamics of three-way FPTP races, if the WRP lead keeps expanding, you'll eventually start having two competing trends:

1. Liberal and NDP voters voting PC to keep out WRP.

2. PC voters voting WRP to keep out Liberals and NDP.

The PCs have to hope that 1 is a stronger trend than 2, or they'll be wiped off the map.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #154 on: April 04, 2012, 08:30:37 PM »

There are some PCs who'll survive on their personal popularity. If they lose official party status and Liberals form OO, Sherman will have a good claim to the last laugh.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #155 on: April 04, 2012, 08:47:50 PM »

The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.

QP?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #156 on: April 04, 2012, 08:49:22 PM »

The leaders' debate is a week from tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out. I saw Smith on QP last week and was impressed when she dismantled some myths about equalization.

QP?

CTV's Question Period. Here's the link.

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/ctvs-question-period/april-1/#clip649165
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #157 on: April 04, 2012, 08:53:46 PM »

Cheers.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #158 on: April 04, 2012, 10:07:12 PM »

There are some PCs who'll survive on their personal popularity. If they lose official party status and Liberals form OO, Sherman will have a good claim to the last laugh.

Except the Liberals will be lucky to win more than a couple of seats.

Anyways, here's my Edmonton analysis (whew!): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-edmonton.html
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redcommander
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« Reply #159 on: April 05, 2012, 01:13:34 AM »

Has Alberta ever had a Liberal or NDP Premier before?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #160 on: April 05, 2012, 02:00:15 AM »

It was Liberal from Confederation until...uh, ninety-one years ago. Not that long, in geologic time.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #161 on: April 05, 2012, 02:26:02 AM »

Why does everyone assume that the many of the remaining NDP and Grit supporters will strategically vote for the PCers? The MLPs are the same troupe of right-wingers that they've opposed for decades and presumably most Blue Liberals are already supporting Redford.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #162 on: April 05, 2012, 07:01:04 AM »

Why does everyone assume that the many of the remaining NDP and Grit supporters will strategically vote for the PCers? The MLPs are the same troupe of right-wingers that they've opposed for decades and presumably most Blue Liberals are already supporting Redford.

My Guess is that more Liberal voters are flexible, exp. since Redford is the typicla red tory. The Liberals are running a very left-wing platform from what ive seen so they don't seem to be going after the PC vote. I think the Liberal vote might be nearing its bottom, which is probably close to what the NDP is at, around 10%
The NDP might see 2008 numbers but i think thats the basement right now, their numbers since election call haven't tanked or skyrocketed so i think more of that moderate vote might be going PC if the WR looks to win big. The NDP are pretty stable, there sitting about (province wide) 2004 numbers... but with four-way splits who knows how thats going to manifest.
2008 - 8.5% (EDM - 18%)
2004 - 10.2 (EDM - 22%)
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Hash
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« Reply #163 on: April 05, 2012, 07:08:40 AM »

Has Alberta ever had a Liberal or NDP Premier before?

Alberta was a Liberal stronghold federally until 1917 and provincially until 1921. Pedants will argue that the NDP is the descendant of the UFA, which dominated provincial politics between 1921 and 1935.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #164 on: April 05, 2012, 07:10:35 AM »

The combined WRP + PC vote according to polls is around 70%, so obviously some Liberals have switched their vote. There are also polls that show how 2008 votes are going this time, I'll try to find some examples.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #165 on: April 05, 2012, 07:18:48 AM »

Abacus seems to be the most recent pollster to ask about 2008 votes.

People who voted Tory last time
WRP: 52%!
PC: 40%
Lib: 4%
NDP: 3%

People who voted WRP last time
WRP: 81%
PC: 10%
Lib: 4%
NDP: 4%

People who voted Lib last time
Lib: 54%
WRP: 19%
PC: 14% (less than the WRP, so not that much I guess)
NDP: 9%

People who voted NDP last time
NDP: 61%
Lib: 15%
WRP: 15%
PC: 7%

So yeah, not many left of centre votes are going to the PCs yet. In fact, more are going to the WRP. Sounds like 1993, when many populist NDP votes went Reform in the west.

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Smid
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« Reply #166 on: April 05, 2012, 07:25:35 AM »
« Edited: April 05, 2012, 07:27:44 AM by Smid »

Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be are very interesting!
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #167 on: April 05, 2012, 07:27:44 AM »

Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be very interesting!

Not sure about Martin. I don't know why he would switch ridings, AFAIK there's no residency requirements to run, but Alberta might have those rules.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #168 on: April 05, 2012, 07:31:40 AM »
« Edited: April 05, 2012, 07:39:30 AM by Smid »

May not be a formal requirement, just a personal attachment to the area? There were parts that transferred in from his riding, not substantially, but a small amount did.

Interesting that over half the PC voters last election are intending to vote PC this election! Just incredible! Given Wildrose's dramatic rise in the polls, unsurprising that they have the highest voter retention. Interesting that the NDP has the second highest voter retention figures.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #169 on: April 05, 2012, 07:48:03 AM »



Interesting that over half the PC voters last election are intending to vote PC Wildrose this election!

Corrected for you Smiley
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lilTommy
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« Reply #170 on: April 05, 2012, 07:55:49 AM »

Earl, great work on your Edmonton analysis. I guess Ray Martin was from the part of his old riding that got shifted into the new riding where he's competing this election?

Those polls showing vote switching since 2008 would be very interesting!

Not sure about Martin. I don't know why he would switch ridings, AFAIK there's no residency requirements to run, but Alberta might have those rules.

The Edmonton Journal did a write up on Edm-Glenora (papers do that kinda thing, bios of ridings) anywho Martin said the "party" thought he would have a good shot at the riding given his name and political history in the city, he really was the face of the NDP back when the party took 16seats in the late 80s. (the liberal social media space was so pissed at that news, they thought they had this one locked up) Also the riding he held in 04 was Beverly-Clearview (earl you pointed that out) they had already nominated an different candidate... Martin is getting up there in age so i think the common perception was he was done after running in 08 and in May 11 in EDM East.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #171 on: April 05, 2012, 08:18:47 AM »

Daveberta.ca did a review of some potential WR MLAs and potential cabinet ministers:
http://daveberta.ca/2012/04/danielle-smith-wildrose-candidates/

A nice mix of Evangelicals, sexually-insecure anti-gay activits, Harper Conservative connected people and weird eco-conservatives who think LRT is dirtier then cars...
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lilTommy
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« Reply #172 on: April 05, 2012, 08:43:07 AM »

Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?
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DL
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« Reply #173 on: April 05, 2012, 10:16:53 AM »

The way I see it there are 6 winnable seats for the NDP - all in Edmonton (plus a possible longshot in Lethbridge West)

Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Highlands Norwood are easy holds
Edmonton-Calder and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview were very narrow losses last time and should be very low hanging fruit this time what with the collapsing PC and Liberal vote
Edmonton-Glenora is a good target with ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar is entirely part of the Linda Duncan's federal riding and redistribution has added even more NDP territory to it. With no Liberal incumbent and a strong NDP campaign that is building on the federal NDP check-marks - this is highly winnable for the NDP in a four way split.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #174 on: April 05, 2012, 10:48:34 AM »

The way I see it there are 6 winnable seats for the NDP - all in Edmonton (plus a possible longshot in Lethbridge West)

Edmonton-Strathcona and Edmonton Highlands Norwood are easy holds
Edmonton-Calder and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview were very narrow losses last time and should be very low hanging fruit this time what with the collapsing PC and Liberal vote
Edmonton-Glenora is a good target with ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar is entirely part of the Linda Duncan's federal riding and redistribution has added even more NDP territory to it. With no Liberal incumbent and a strong NDP campaign that is building on the federal NDP check-marks - this is highly winnable for the NDP in a four way split.

Sounds about right to me... I'm going to throw Manning into the mix if the NDP end up at 20+ in the city; The have a strong (on paper) candidate in a School board trustee, they earned about 20% in 08 when the there was a liberal-turned-indie MLA and a Liberal in the mix. I think this is the next low-hanging fruit in the city
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