Alberta 2012
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 12:56:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Alberta 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 23
Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 87608 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: April 05, 2012, 12:09:29 PM »

Wtf.... (is he just being snarky?)

http://www.albertaliberal.com/news.php?n=87
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: April 05, 2012, 02:32:47 PM »

Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?

Those EDM numbers look good for the Tories and the NDP, but I should qualify that 20% is not a surge for the NDP, which got 18% there in 2008.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: April 05, 2012, 02:40:32 PM »

Leger breakdown

Edmonton
PC: 37 (-)
Wildrose: 25 (+2)
NDP: 20 (+3)
Lib: 12 (-4)

Calgary
WRP: 47 (+12)
PC: 34 (-3)
Lib: 11 (-2)
NDP: 7 (-1)

Rest of AB
WRP: 54 (+15)
PC: 30 (-7)
NDP: 7 (-1)
Lib: 5 (-2)
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: April 05, 2012, 07:03:30 PM »

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: April 05, 2012, 07:42:40 PM »

Well, the Bloc was able to win seats that were previously marginal due to people who would've  voted NDP strategically voting, allowing the Bloc to win in some odd areas like Ahuntsic. So, the PCs might win some of those previous Liberal-PC races in Edmonton because of that. People who would otherwise vote WRP in some of those seats will vote PC to stop the Liberals.
Logged
Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: April 05, 2012, 07:46:43 PM »

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: April 05, 2012, 07:57:36 PM »

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!

Had he been elected in '06 Wildrose probably wouldn't exist today. Post-election he should join Wildrose, where he clearly belongs. The PC remnants can join the Liberals or flee east to McWorld.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,583
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: April 05, 2012, 09:19:48 PM »

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: April 06, 2012, 08:20:09 AM »

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,990
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: April 06, 2012, 01:21:48 PM »

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.

I think your Canadian bias is coming out here. Tongue

The WRP is almost a carbon copy of the latest dominant wave of movement conservatism down here in the states. It does have a distinctly western flavor and reminds me a lot of the modern Idaho GOP's rhetoric. In general, Albertan politics reminds me of Idahoan politics in style, rhetoric and even the demographic divides to an extent. The PCs are like perceived RINOs in Idaho. Some of them are simply attached to an older form of conservatism that doesn't worship market dogma and some of them are legitimate moderates. The Grits are like the old strain of moderate (DLC that control the party) and conservative Democrats (assorted legislators, Cecil Andrus). The NDP/CCF are like the up and coming progressive Democrats of Boise but who have had a long past in various populist and labor movements.

I'm probably really off base here though.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: April 06, 2012, 01:55:54 PM »

Yeah, Alberta would pretty clearly be about R+10 or so, maybe a little more, if it were a state.

This election's sort of interesting in that you've kinda got a competition between soft-communitarians and soft-libertarians.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: April 06, 2012, 03:03:59 PM »

Yeah, Alberta would pretty clearly be about R+10 or so, maybe a little more, if it were a state.

This election's sort of interesting in that you've kinda got a competition between soft-communitarians and soft-libertarians.

Alberta is politically much like the American states that it borders (the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho, et al.), yes?
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: April 06, 2012, 03:21:49 PM »

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: April 06, 2012, 03:24:56 PM »

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.
There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: April 06, 2012, 03:30:55 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2012, 03:58:03 PM by Χahar »

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.
There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?

Alberta is 1.72% Mormon, but I wasn't really referring to exit polls; they're geographically concentrated enough that it should be possible to tell from the election results.

There's no detailed religious information available for rural areas, but Lethbridge in 2001 was 8.6% Mormon.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: April 06, 2012, 05:54:15 PM »

Mormons will go WRP. Almost all of them are in the Taber-Warner-Cardston riding, which might be a plurality mormon, if not a majority. It was the only AA riding back in 2004.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: April 06, 2012, 06:11:58 PM »

I think your Canadian bias is coming out here. Tongue

The WRP is almost a carbon copy of the latest dominant wave of movement conservatism down here in the states. It does have a distinctly western flavor and reminds me a lot of the modern Idaho GOP's rhetoric. In general, Albertan politics reminds me of Idahoan politics in style, rhetoric and even the demographic divides to an extent. The PCs are like perceived RINOs in Idaho.

You mean like (if we go a state southward) Jon Huntsman Republicans?

Even so, it's hard for me to concile the WRP that aggressively with, if we may take an Idaho example, the "Helen Chenoweth" school of nutbar Republicanism...
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: April 06, 2012, 09:22:27 PM »

Would the Idaho Republicans say the same thing?: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-smith-abortion-response-friday.html

Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: April 07, 2012, 03:03:37 PM »

I have created an Alberta map gallery, including maps of provincial elections going back to 1997: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/alberta.html

I would love to make 1993 and 1989 as well (very interesting elections), but I don't have any maps from those years.
Logged
Smid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,151
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: April 07, 2012, 07:00:17 PM »

Fantastic job, mate!
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: April 07, 2012, 07:26:58 PM »

Most personable party leader ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5P5OxlP6KY
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: April 07, 2012, 07:27:52 PM »


Thanks. Ive added federal maps to going back to 1997 as well. I'll do more later, if I get the time.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: April 07, 2012, 07:30:11 PM »


I remember that. It was right after she became leader.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: April 08, 2012, 01:20:17 PM »

Added the 2004 Senate nominee map:

Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #199 on: April 08, 2012, 04:14:28 PM »

Getting nasty out there.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/Tories+Wildrose+Campaign+erupts+into+words/6426374/story.html

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 23  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 11 queries.