Alberta 2012

[Leftbehind]

You'd think it'd be the opposite - the type of disaffected Tory > WRP would be more likely to turnout, to my mind, than FN voters.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

The FN in 1984 might be something like the Wildrose, but the FN in 2012 is clearly nothing like the Wildrose. The Wildrose is closer to the Droite populaire of the UMP if you're looking for an analogy, though the xenophobia of course isn't there.

[Hatman]

You'd think it'd be the opposite - the type of disaffected Tory > WRP would be more likely to turnout, to my mind, than FN voters.

That was Ezra Levant's theory.

The FN in 1984 might be something like the Wildrose, but the FN in 2012 is clearly nothing like the Wildrose. The Wildrose is closer to the Droite populaire of the UMP if you're looking for an analogy, though the xenophobia of course isn't there.

There's a small bit of xenophobia, I'm sure. I know a large % of Albertans are racist. It's second nature for a lot of Albertans. I have some racist family members who live there... it's quite common to complain about those lazy injuns or the corrupt "pakis".

[Vasall des Midas]

WRP did badly in seats for losing by "only" ten points. How many FPP elections won by similar margins have resulted in such lopsided numbers? Conversely, the Liberals and NDP did pretty well for parties that won less than 10% of the vote. Just look at Calgary and Edmonton - the WRP beat the Liberals in both cities (by a significant margin in the former), but still won less seats.

The only comparison I can think of recently would be Manitoba last year, where the PCs came within 2.5% of the NDP's overall vote share and gained absolutely nothing.

Last Jamaican election comes to mind. Blowout in the results map, semi-close in the vote shares.

[wormyguy]

There was that Venezuelan "election" in which the opposition won the popular vote but Chavez's party won 2/3rds of the seats...

[Smid]

I think the expectation that Wildrose would win meant that people were more cautious voting for them and considered how they would govern. The PC scare campaign managed to spook enough voters into going with "better the devil you know..." They probably now form a large-enough opposition that voters will be more comfortable with them next election (assuming no awkward gaffes).

I think their polls really shot up once the campaign was called, if I remember correctly. I could be wrong, but I seem to remember polling in the low-to-mid-twenties as recently as the start of this year. This result is still a ten percent improvement in on those figures. I think the polls represented decided voters, and I was reading with one of the final polls, a report of a high number of undecideds. Presumably the other polls were the same. If those undecideds were being excluded from the polls, and then predominately broke for the incumbents, that could explain much of the election-day swing (plus, the benefit of incumbency meaning better voter lists and therefore a stronger GOTV campaign). Those undecideds are likely also disaffected with the government, but just unwilling to vote Wildrose this time. This probably bodes well for WR next election, particularly with the outcome this time deviating so far from expectations.

I don't think strategic voting made much difference, except perhaps in E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar (I suspect some progressives in those seats are feeling pretty filthy at helping re-elect a PC majority). It will be interesting to see the C-McCall polls, but it would be ironic if Liberals voting strategically for PC almost managed to split the non-WR vote enough to almost elect the WR candidate.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

This is a far larger difference between polls and results than most, but it's no secret that unpopular government parties tend to underpoll.

[BaldEagle1991]

I know this is out of topic, and kind of silly to ask, but is Alberta is to Canada, like what the Southern US is to the USA?

All I know that province is all Con without any hope for any other party.

[Hatman]

Alberta is more like Texas or Montana.

[Smid]

Earl and Hashemite both have maps up on their websites, but no one has uploaded one here, so I did:

2012 Alberta General Election Results




Obviously this map shows the primary vote of the winning party in each riding. Bigger versions available in the gallery.

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - PC Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Wildrose Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Liberal Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - NDP Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Alberta Party Vote

[Smid]

2012 Alberta General Election - Evergreen Party Vote

[Hatman]

Excellent work, Smid. I was wondering if I was going to have to do those myself

[Smid]

Excellent work, Smid. I was wondering if I was going to have to do those myself

Ha! Sorry to give you a fright! I was worried while I was finishing them that you were also working on them and that one of us would find the other had completed them and we'd double-up the work. Feel free to use them as you see fit.

Lesser Slave Lake surprises me. I'm sure I saw in the Census stats somewhere that it is majority First Nations, and I am always surprised it doesn't have a higher Liberal/NDP vote. PC vote was a smidgeon under 50% and Wildrose just under 40% (so both were nearly in the next-darker category).

I'd like to work on some Senator-in-waiting maps, but I'm still thinking about how to go about them, since there are three candidates per party and the NDP doesn't run.

Edit: Oh, and thanks for the compliment!

[Hatman]

Well, take a look at my 2004 Senator map, Smid. It's in this thread, but also on my site under "Alberta maps".

BTW, I'm reading Hashemite's analysis on his site. Very well done (as always). I think I learned a bit or two myself, despite immersing myself in Alberta political history/geography these past few weeks.

[Smid]

Well, take a look at my 2004 Senator map, Smid. It's in this thread, but also on my site under "Alberta maps".

BTW, I'm reading Hashemite's analysis on his site. Very well done (as always). I think I learned a bit or two myself, despite immersing myself in Alberta political history/geography these past few weeks.

I enjoy reading both your sites - you always have the primary vote of winning candidate map, and he always has the margin of win map, so the two provide a good overview of both ways of looking at the election results. You both invariably have different items of information in there, too, which is also very handy and enlightening.

I'll take a look for your Senate maps from 2004 and have a crack at this election.

[Smid]

2012 Alberta Senate Election



It's a pretty boring map, because it's multiple first past the post, etc. The interesting bits are the brown ridings in the North (Medicine Hat was won by the same candidate, at 14%).

The third Wildrose candidate doesn't appear to have won any ridings.

I have completed another table where I have totalled the vote received by the three PC candidates and the three Wildrose candidates (left independents separate, as I don't think there was a "ticket" for them). I'll work on a map of that tomorrow - it looks like PC and Wildrose won every riding. Surprises include Wildrose winning Calgary-Fort, Calgary-McCall, Fort Mac-Conklin and Lesser Slave Lake, while PC wins Highwood, Calgary-Fish Creek and Calgary-Shaw. All Liberal and NDP provincial seats went PC for the Senate.

[Smid]

Can't edit my previous post from my phone browser. Obviously the final sentence should include the words "with the exception of Calgary-McCall" at the beginning.

[Hatman]

Strange map. I noticed the key is different from mine, as I used percentage of ballots while used percentage of votes.

[BaldEagle1991]

Alberta is more like Texas or Montana.

I've been told its more OK or UT than TX or MT, but to me it's more like Alabama or Georgia.

[You kip if you want to...]

To me (not that I know too much about the province), it seems like its US neighbours: Montana, the Dakotas, Idaho, etc...