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Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 24560 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: December 10, 2011, 08:54:11 pm »
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Since we have a Quebec thread up... figured might as well start this one. Earlier this week the Alberta Legislature enacted a fixed-date elections law mandating an election between March 1- June 1.

Latest polls have the PCs up 51-19 on Wildrose, with the Grits and Dippers back at 13-14% apop.

Personally, I find the idea of another PC mandate loathsome. But it looks like the dynasty will survive another 4 years- when they should be wiped off the electoral map.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
redcommander
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2011, 05:31:54 am »
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Ahhh my favorite Canadian province where the two main parties are a choice between Conservative and even more Conservative.
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Smid
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2011, 06:18:31 am »
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I've put together a map of Alberta provincial ridings, following the 2010 redistribution.

I was thinking of trying to calculate notional margins but I would prefer someone else to - I'm still going with the new Quebec map and I'd like to prioritise that rather than estimate margins. I'm particularly interested in Northeastern Calgary - it looks to me like some of the more Liberal polls have been split up and may reduce the margin or flip them to PC. I think the NDP may notionally pick up an Edmonton riding off PC, too.

Anyway, hopefully everyone will find this blank base map of Alberta provincial riding boundaries helpful. As always, there is a bigger version in the blank map gallery.

Alberta Provincial Election Map

« Last Edit: April 09, 2012, 11:02:53 pm by Smid »Logged
Smid
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2011, 06:28:25 am »
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Here are maps showing the 2008 Alberta provincial election results. I'm posting from my mobile, so I'll apologise in advance for spreading them over several posts. Again, they're all uploaded into the gallery, so bigger versions in there.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map

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Smid
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2011, 06:33:39 am »
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2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Winning Margins




Bigger version in the gallery. The redistribution obviously changes some of the riding boundaries.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2011, 06:37:02 am »
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Looks like a boring election ahead.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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Smid
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2011, 06:43:12 am »
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2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - PC Primary Vote




Bigger version in the gallery.

Some of the strongest results for the Progressive Conservative Party were in rural ridings outside Edmonton, I don't think Wildrose contested those ridings, but I could be wrong - we'll see in another few maps.
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Smid
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2011, 06:47:47 am »
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The Liberal Party won the second-most seats in the legislature at the 2008 election:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Liberal Primary Vote

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Smid
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2011, 06:51:31 am »
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The NDP won two seats in Edmonton:

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - NDP Primary Votes




Again, a bigger version is in the gallery.
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Smid
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2011, 06:56:54 am »
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The Wildrose Alliance didn't run in every seat, but still performed reasonably well. Since the election, there have been a few defections from the PC Party to the Wildrose Alliance.

2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results Map - WRA Primary Vote

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Smid
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2011, 07:01:01 am »
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2008 Alberta Provincial Election Results - Greens Primary Vote



Bigger version in the gallery (again).
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2011, 12:36:43 pm »
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Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2011, 12:43:12 pm »
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Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

No kidding. To be fair, except for Ralph Klein's first two terms, they've never really been all that big on the noun.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2011, 01:12:28 pm »
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Klien was an Alberta Liberal back when he was Mayor of Calgary. Calgary, in fact, is much more moderate than people think. It's been tainted by the MP's it elects - and even then, half of them were born in Toronto.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Antonio V
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2011, 02:44:18 pm »
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Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Hashemite
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2011, 02:48:44 pm »

Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

It was deregistered after the last election for not doing some financial paperwork thingees
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Antonio V
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2011, 02:51:07 pm »
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Wildrose (no longer having Alliance in it's name) uses Green; and, the Green Party is illegal in Alberta.

Also, Redford, PC leader, would be a Liberal in places like BC, Ontario, or Quebec.

Wait wait what ?

It was deregistered after the last election for not doing some financial paperwork thingees

Oh God. For a few seconds I thought Albertans were even crazier than I've been told. Grin
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2011, 03:01:17 pm »
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Thats why I like phrasing it like that Cheesy
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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MaxQue
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« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2011, 05:14:11 pm »
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They got in intense infringing (some group tried to take over leadership), which led to a two years long fight which paralysed the party for two years and saw most members leaving and most of the leadership resigning.

It was so paralysed than it asked to be unregisted when the executive of the party saw they would be unable to fill the annual reports requested by law.

They can attempt to recreate themselves (and probably will) after next election.
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Hatman
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« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2011, 05:48:07 pm »
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It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.
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Smid
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« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2011, 06:38:23 pm »
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I'll fix the new map to reflect Wildrose = green and Greens = doesn't exist, when I'm back from holidays after New Year's (minimal access to a computer in the interim).

I remember that about the Greens now, I was reading that their President at the time is now a Wildrose candidate...
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2011, 10:59:29 pm »
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Aye

The Green Party of Ontario and the Green Party of Canada had their own "war" back in the 90's that started very slowly. The GPC was more left wing and the GPO very slowly started to move to the right.

Over the next decade, those who agreed with the GPO took over really. GPC is now in line with the GPO (which itself has not moved) and GPBC has perhaps outdone GPO in right-wingidness. The only truly left-wing Greens left are the GPSK.

The long-story-short of the Alberta story was an attempt by the Eco Capitalists to take the party over from the Socialists, but the gulf between them was much larger than in other Green Parties in Canada. IIRC the party would have went from the most left-wing to the most right-wing Green Party in all of Canada. One half walked out of the convention, taking the chair of said meeting with them, and the other half continued with someone as chair who'd not renewed their membership, and this caused chaos. Eventually the party lost it's status. The leftos are creating their own "movement" which may or may not run candidates, while the righties are running for parties like Wildrose.
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Hatman
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« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2011, 11:51:30 pm »
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Heh. Somehow I dont see the Wild Rose party to be too perceptive of any type of environmentalism.  Isn't their leader a climate change denier?
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DL
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« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2011, 12:54:12 pm »
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It's for the best; if a province ever needed a "united left", it's Alberta.

Would the Alberta PCs under Redford be part of a "united left" in Alberta?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #24 on: December 24, 2011, 12:09:55 pm »
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Progressives on track for another majority.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/23/alison-redford-alberta-poll_n_1166255.html?ref=canada-politics
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
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