Alberta 2012

[lilTommy]

I did the political compass on CBC, and got closer to the Liberals than the NDP *scratches head*. I didn't realize the Liberals were that left wing, and that the NDP was REALLY left wing in Alberta. WTF? How are they supposed to win in Alberta with those policies?

Because in at least one case (Liberals), the Progs do their work. A Brisonian ALP could have easily outflanked the Progs as they nearly did in '93- but too late, because now there's an unhyphenated conservative opposition.

I did the same VoteCompass... 90% NDP.
I think the NDP wins in some areas naturally esp in Edmonton given its demographics (government workers, conceration of students, etc) NOW is a perfect time for the NDP to show its the only progressive option since the PCs and Liberals are all Blue Liberals/Red Tories... The federal election momentum might help the NDP but in polls that ive seen the party has been stuck at about 13-14% even with the liberals so.

[Holmes]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

[lilTommy]

... Maybe i'm just as the crazy Don Cherry would say a "Left-wing pinko commie"

[Hatman]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

[Holmes]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

Maybe not on the issues of the day in Alberta.

[Smid]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

I was going to say that I've always found you to be moderate, but than realised that's not true. Neither of us are particularly moderate (indeed, we're each about equally far from centre), which highlights the difference between moderation and respect for people who hold an alternative opinion.

[Senator MaxQue]

NDP 82, Lib 79, PC 50, WR 37.
I'm to the right of the NDP, which surprise me only a little bit.

[RogueBeaver]

WA 74, PC 63, Lib 39, NDP 20. I was significantly to Wildrose's right on fiscal matters but only slightly more socially conservative.

[Hatman]

I got 76% NDP, 68% Lib, 50% PC, 42% WR. *shrug*

Weird, I thought you were more moderate than me!

I was going to say that I've always found you to be moderate, but than realised that's not true. Neither of us are particularly moderate (indeed, we're each about equally far from centre), which highlights the difference between moderation and respect for people who hold an alternative opinion.

Smid, I must confess, I'm not always respectful to the other side like you are; but I could never throw any harsh words towards you. (In fact, you're so darned nice, it's hard to picture you as a cold hearted conservative )

Anyways, some recent polls:

Ipsos-Reid:
PC: 38%
WR: 38%
NDP: 12%
Lib: 11%

Think HQ Public Affairs:
PC: 36% (-6)
WR: 33% (+4)
NDP: 13% (-)
Lib: 13% (+1)

It's a close race!

[Peter the Lefty]

Alberta a close race?  Wtf wow.  This should be interesting.  A race between rightists and wacko tea-party-style rightists.  What a screwed up province.  Reminds me of the far-right mud-hole of a country where I live

[RogueBeaver]

Alberta a close race?  Wtf wow.  This should be interesting.  A race between rightists and wacko tea-party-style rightists.  What a screwed up province.  Reminds me of the far-right mud-hole of a country where I live

A race between centrists and conservatives. Apart from Ralph Klein's first two terms the Progs have always taken the adjective much more seriously than the noun. How did Lougheed found the dynasty? By decrying the Socreds as a bunch of fast-buck Uncle Toms who were depriving Albertans of "our fair share" of oil revenue. His solution? An in-house NEP.

As for the close race, I expect a strong opposition but no Wildrose victory. Maybe in 2016. At best the heat gets strong enough to force the Progs rightwards, as Decore did in '93. That's the point- they only get serious about budget hawkishness when the gun's at their head. Albertans should not have to beg a supposdely conservative government to be fiscally conservative. That's without mentioning their corruption and shameless abuse of eminent domain. Did I mention aping McGuinty on nannyism?

Last but not least, 40 years is a ridiculously long incumbency. Half that is the maximum I'd be prepared to tolerate from any government.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I got
PC 65%
WR 60%
Lib 53%
NDP 39%

I guess I'm the only one rooting for the PC's

[Hatman]

It should also be known that there will also be a Senate election. The Tories, WRP and the Greens are running candidates.

[Smid]

Personally, I think the NDP should field a candidate, too. I realise that the party is taking a principled stand against the Senate, but I think not fielding a candidate is putting ideology before reality, and although I can respect that (I generally prefer ideologues to pragmatists), I think it makes as much sense as not fielding candidates in single member electorates to protest against the electoral system not being PR. Obviously, they'd be unlikely to win anyway, but that's just my personal opinion.

[lilTommy]

The reason why Wildrose is even around is the fact that the PC's are pretty red tory... Wildrose is true blue conservatives now and Alberta has almost always been a more conservative province. The last "preogressive" government (i use that sparingly) was the United Farmers back in the 1921-35... its been SoCred and PC ever since.

The NDP is also taking some guff in NS since they want teh senate abolished and the Libs/Tories want them to organize for an election of senators. Me, personally if elections for senators are being held then the NDP should run... this is how the ALP eliminated the Council in Queensland (probably over simplifying things)

Should be exciting... there is a danger that with PC/WR fighting the right... esp in Edmonton that might mean a Liberal or NDP comming up the middle and winning... with as little as 25%! (4 main parties and two smaller ones, Alberta Party and Evergreen something-or-other so depending on how the votes go)

[Hashemite]

The UFA government tended to be relatively moderate, at least they were far more moderate than most Ginger UFA MPs who were clamouring for 'group government'.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

If Wildrose does well, any chance they'll try to expand to other provinces and/or run candidates federally?

[lilTommy]

Doubt it... the right-wing parties tend to be very provincially focused; and many Tories are starting to drift to the right anyway (here in Ontario is a good example of that).
BC has the new Conservatives, SASK has the Saskatchewan Party... the provincial tories are on life support in MAN along with the Liberals so there is no room there for another party on the right... that would mean NDP sweeping all seats. The only potential area is the Maritimes, but they never warmed up to the western based right-wing Reform, so i doubt they would vote for another one, even if it was a provincially focused one.

[danny]

For me:
PC
61%
LIB
60%
WR
57%
NDP
54%

Social seems to mean something very different in Alberta and the USA, I'm far left in the USA and moderately right in Alberta (It's even more different in Israel).

[Leftbehind]

NDP 81%
Lib 73%
PC  48%
WR  32%

Same height but a bit left of the NDP.

I hadn't realised Alberta was that right-wing; even if the provincial PC are made up of "Red Tories", it's still a fight between two forms of conservatism.

[Hatman]

Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

[RogueBeaver]

Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

So 1993 all over again- the campaign will determine a winner. Or perhaps 2004 federally.

[Hatman]

Some more polls:

Forum Research shocker!

WR: 41% (+11%)
PC: 31% (-6%)
Lib: 12% (-2%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Leger still shows the Tories ahead:

PC: 37% (-16%)
WR: 34% (+18%)
Lib: 12% (+1%)
NDP: 11% (-2%)

Sad that the NDP is now in 4th...

So 1993 all over again- the campaign will determine a winner. Or perhaps 2004 federally.

If the WRP pulls away, it might make things easier to predict. But, as it stands now I have no idea how the WRP vs PC vote will split in terms of ridings.

Anyone want to put in their 2 cents?

[RogueBeaver]

If WA surges too quickly, then tactical voting might kick in a la '04. Apart from that I have no idea. Any resident Albertans here?

[Hatman]

Here's a breakdown of the FR poll:

Rural north:
WR: 41
PC: 36
NDP: 9
Lib: 8

Rural south:
WR: 46
PC: 29
NDP: 11
Lib: 10

Calgary:
WR: 47
PC: 28
Lib: 13
NDP: 8

Edmonton:
WR: 31
PC: 30
NDP: 18
Lib: 17

Leger breakdown

Edmonton:
PC: 37
WR: 23
NDP: 17
Lib: 16

Calgary
PC: 37
WR: 35
Lib: 13
NDP: 8

Rest of Alta
WR: 41
PC: 37
NDP: 8
Lib: 7

To compare, the last election:

Calgary
PC: 46
Lib: 34
WR: 9
NDP: 4

Edmonton
PC: 43
Lib: 35
NDP: 18
WR: 2