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Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 22998 times)
PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #100 on: March 28, 2012, 05:09:59 pm »

Leger's Calgary sample seems too favourable to the PCs for me. I think most polls have confirmed that Calgary is now lean WR or something.
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« Reply #101 on: March 28, 2012, 08:55:31 pm »
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Leger's Calgary sample seems too favourable to the PCs for me. I think most polls have confirmed that Calgary is now lean WR or something.

It certainly was lean WR, or possibly even more favourable than that under Stelmach. I'm sure everyone is familiar with Smith's background on the Calgary Herald (? or is it another paper?) and with the PC Premier hailing from Edmonton and surrounds, WR was able to establish a stronger position in Calgary. I somewhat expected the new Premier to be able to claw back the WR lead in Calgary, given that she is also a local, so from that perspective, I wouldn't be surprised by the Leger result. Of course, I know that there's a fair degree of dissent in the city, so I also wouldn't be surprised if the Forum Research poll was correct. It seems out of step with all the other recent polls, so I would hesitate to give it much credance yet (until such time as it's backed up by at least one other), but if another poll came out supporting those figures, I wouldn't be surprised... in short, I don't know how the election will go, and would be prepared for anything from PC slightly in front, to a fairly strong WR victory (in popular vote terms, not necessarily reflected in number of seats).

Comparing PC vs Reform federally in days gone by could possibly give an indication of regional trends that may be repeated in this election.

EDIT: Just to emphasise, this is just my gut talking, and also the feel I get from friends and family in Alberta, but not based on anything scientific.
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« Reply #102 on: March 29, 2012, 12:10:19 am »
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I will be doing my first prediction soon. These are the numbers I have now:

WRP: 53-56
PC 22-27
NDP 4
Lib 3-4
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« Reply #103 on: March 29, 2012, 08:19:15 am »
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There was also a poll on Stephen Taylor's blog by those "evil people" at Campaign Research that confirmed a Wildrose lead at also had very good NDP numbers in Edmonton.
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« Reply #104 on: March 29, 2012, 09:10:50 am »
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Thank you! i was looking for that poll as it was mentioned on Rabble...
http://www.stephentaylor.ca/

Comparing that with the previous election:
Edmonton:
Edmonton
PC: 43         28 -15
Lib: 35         18 -17
NDP: 18       23 +5
WR: 2          23 +21

IF these are close to being the results; we could see huge wins (seat totals) for either the PCs, NDP or Wildrose... as i mentioned before, with numbers like this (factor in Alberta Party and Evergreen taking say 5% combined) we could see a party with with 25% of the vote.
The Liberals look like they might lose all their seats but probably will be left with 2 is more close to reality (Meadowlark and Centre probably). IF the Liberal vote swings 60%+ to the NDP this could mean 4-5 pick ups for the NDP (Glenora, Calder, Beverly-Clearview, Manning), If the WR eats enough into the PCs vote we could even see low hanging seats like Gold Bar, Ellerslie, Riverview or Centre going NDP. Thats my optimistic NDPer forcast. We could easily see WR pick up some strong right wing/affluent suburban ridings too by meer hundreds of votes. 


   
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« Reply #105 on: March 29, 2012, 04:28:01 pm »
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Campaign Research breakdown

Calgary
WR: 42%
PC: 31%
Lib: 14%
NDP: 6%

Rest of Alta
WR: 46%
PC: 31%
Lib: 10%
NDP: 10%

Edmonton
PC:   28
Lib:     18
NDP:  23
WR:   23
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« Reply #106 on: March 29, 2012, 11:08:47 pm »
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My first prediction for Alberta: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/03/2012-alberta-election-prediction-march.html
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« Reply #107 on: March 30, 2012, 07:46:41 am »
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Earl, killer... love your maps and the riding by riding predictions.
I commented too Tongue

Campaign Research seems to be so far an outlier in Edmonton... they have the NDP far higher than anyone else, and the PCs/WR lower. I love them numbers but for now i will take it with a grain a salt.

If people are looking for a comparison year, its 1971... SoCreds had been in power for about 36years; the tories went into that election with only 6 seats. The similarities are there; a seeming tired regime, a popular new party leader with momentum (WR Smith today); That elections saw the Liberals Shut out and the NDP under the late Notley won a seat (rural northern one at that). This time i don't see the PCs, like the SoCreds being shut out of Edmonton and Calgfary... Calgary maybe but not Edmonton. Also, Alberta is more diverse now then in 1971 but that could go either way, no longer are minority groups a given to vote for Liberals/NDP or even the moderate PCs now.

I think Smith already made a blunder; saying Redmond didn't love Alberta, really? thats a pretty novice weak attack.
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« Reply #108 on: March 30, 2012, 04:37:11 pm »
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Thanks for the comment Smiley Seems others have commented as well, which is nice to see. Someone mentioned the Abacus poll, so I should post the numbers here:

WRP 41 (+12)
PC 28 (-6)
ALP 16 (-2)
NDP 12 (-2)

Can't find any regional numbers yet. But it's clear to see that the PCs would be nearly wiped off the map with those numbers.

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« Reply #109 on: March 30, 2012, 05:08:14 pm »
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Interesting note about the Abacus poll, it was done using the IVR technology from EKOS. One of my friends/co-workers did the voice for it, so many Albertans will have heard her.
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« Reply #110 on: March 30, 2012, 06:28:44 pm »
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In terms of strong incumbents, I'd rank Ted Morton highly. He's somewhat more Conservative, and a fair amount of the PC to Wildrose change came after he lost the leadership ballot. This suggests to me that some conservatives may see him as almost defacto Wildrose. I could be wrong, and no one has said this to me, it's just my own hunch. Of course, Wildrose performed quite well in his riding last election, I think, so I could be wrong.

One Wildrose candidate I'd rate highly is the guy who had previously been elected to the Senate - the first elected as an independent, I believe.
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« Reply #111 on: March 30, 2012, 06:40:40 pm »
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In terms of strong incumbents, I'd rank Ted Morton highly. He's somewhat more Conservative, and a fair amount of the PC to Wildrose change came after he lost the leadership ballot. This suggests to me that some conservatives may see him as almost defacto Wildrose. I could be wrong, and no one has said this to me, it's just my own hunch. Of course, Wildrose performed quite well in his riding last election, I think, so I could be wrong.

One Wildrose candidate I'd rate highly is the guy who had previously been elected to the Senate - the first elected as an independent, I believe.

Yes, Morton is the PC right's longtime leader. Had he succeeded Klein 6 years ago Wildrose would probably not exist today IMO.
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« Reply #112 on: March 30, 2012, 09:07:48 pm »
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My favourite candidate name: "Garnett Genius" (WR, Sherwood Park)
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« Reply #113 on: March 30, 2012, 09:44:19 pm »
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Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html
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« Reply #114 on: March 31, 2012, 04:07:53 am »
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Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?
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« Reply #115 on: March 31, 2012, 08:15:30 am »
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Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?
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« Reply #116 on: March 31, 2012, 08:20:35 am »
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I found the Edmonton numbers from the Abacus poll:

PC: 30
WRP: 29
Lib: 20
NDP: 18


They also say that the WRP is ahead in Calgary, central Alberta and in the south, while the PCs are still ahead in the north... I can't find numbers yet.
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« Reply #117 on: March 31, 2012, 03:10:46 pm »
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Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?
Elijah.
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« Reply #118 on: March 31, 2012, 04:14:06 pm »
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Here are the Abacus breakdowns

Calgary
WRP: 50
PC: 25
Lib: 10
NDP: 8

Edmonton
PC: 30
WRP: 29
Lib: 20
NDP: 18

North
WRP: 39
PC: 37
NDP: 14
Lib: 7

Central
WRP: 49
PC: 29
Lib: 11
NDP: 9

South (caution: very small sample size)
WRP: 39
PC: 23
NDP: 14
Lib: 14
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« Reply #119 on: March 31, 2012, 08:03:59 pm »
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Getting nasty out there.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/03/31/calgary-redford-smith-fertility-resignation.html?cmp=rss
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« Reply #120 on: March 31, 2012, 08:19:35 pm »
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Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children. I wonder if they were actually some Tory partisan?
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« Reply #121 on: March 31, 2012, 08:26:36 pm »
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Way out of bounds IMO.

Here's a Redford profile if anyone's interested. She and the PM have known each other for nearly 30 years among other things.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alison-redford-a-leader-on-the-brink/article2387909/singlepage/#articlecontent

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« Reply #122 on: April 01, 2012, 12:06:45 am »
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Harper has green-lighted federal endorsements... but only in the MP's own riding. He'll be much happier with Smith.

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative%2Bpick%2Bhome%2Bturf%2Bfavourites%2Bprovincial%2Belections/6388122/story.html

Isn't Smith to the right of Harper though?

Which version of Harper?

The one that doesn't have to make his views more moderate with a minority government anymore.
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« Reply #123 on: April 01, 2012, 12:19:31 am »
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From what little I know of Redford she seems to be to the left of Harper. More so than Smith is to his right? I have no idea.
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« Reply #124 on: April 01, 2012, 04:00:31 am »
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Someone commented on my blog saying they werent going to vote WRP because Smith doesnt have children.
Lol. Sounds thirdworldy Christian to me.
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