Alberta 2012

[wormyguy]

Wtf.... (is he just being snarky?)

http://www.albertaliberal.com/news.php?n=87

[Hatman]

Sorry, posting craze today... Leger poll

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/04/05/wildrose-pulling-ahead-of-pcs-in-alberta-election-campaign-poll/

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Quote: The other surprise in the poll is the surge of the NDP in Edmonton.

Edmonton
PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

This is the second poll to have the NDP at 20%... Earl, how do you think this will play with your Edmonton prediction if this trend continues?

Those EDM numbers look good for the Tories and the NDP, but I should qualify that 20% is not a surge for the NDP, which got 18% there in 2008.

[Hatman]

Leger breakdown

Edmonton
PC: 37 (-)
Wildrose: 25 (+2)
NDP: 20 (+3)
Lib: 12 (-4)

Calgary
WRP: 47 (+12)
PC: 34 (-3)
Lib: 11 (-2)
NDP: 7 (-1)

Rest of AB
WRP: 54 (+15)
PC: 30 (-7)
NDP: 7 (-1)
Lib: 5 (-2)

[adma]

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

[Hatman]

Well, the Bloc was able to win seats that were previously marginal due to people who would've  voted NDP strategically voting, allowing the Bloc to win in some odd areas like Ahuntsic. So, the PCs might win some of those previous Liberal-PC races in Edmonton because of that. People who would otherwise vote WRP in some of those seats will vote PC to stop the Liberals.

[Smid]

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate, I'm wondering if Wildrose might wind up doing to the PCs what the federal NDP did to the Bloc Quebecois a year ago.  (Or if we might even be facing a retro-Lougheed circumstance in which no opposition party has official party status)

I would laugh so hard if Ted Morton was last pC standing... They should have elected him leader.

Thanks for fixing that earlier error for me, Earl!

Had he been elected in '06 Wildrose probably wouldn't exist today. Post-election he should join Wildrose, where he clearly belongs. The PC remnants can join the Liberals or flee east to McWorld.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

[Hatman]

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This is getting pretty disturbing. It's like a reflection of the Tea Party's takeover of the GOP here just in a different party.

Kind of, but I'd the WRP is more like mainstream Republicans, while the Tories (especially under Redford) are like mainstream Democrats.

I think your Canadian bias is coming out here.

The WRP is almost a carbon copy of the latest dominant wave of movement conservatism down here in the states. It does have a distinctly western flavor and reminds me a lot of the modern Idaho GOP's rhetoric. In general, Albertan politics reminds me of Idahoan politics in style, rhetoric and even the demographic divides to an extent. The PCs are like perceived RINOs in Idaho. Some of them are simply attached to an older form of conservatism that doesn't worship market dogma and some of them are legitimate moderates. The Grits are like the old strain of moderate (DLC that control the party) and conservative Democrats (assorted legislators, Cecil Andrus). The NDP/CCF are like the up and coming progressive Democrats of Boise but who have had a long past in various populist and labor movements.

I'm probably really off base here though.

[wormyguy]

Yeah, Alberta would pretty clearly be about R+10 or so, maybe a little more, if it were a state.

This election's sort of interesting in that you've kinda got a competition between soft-communitarians and soft-libertarians.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, Alberta would pretty clearly be about R+10 or so, maybe a little more, if it were a state.

This election's sort of interesting in that you've kinda got a competition between soft-communitarians and soft-libertarians.

Alberta is politically much like the American states that it borders (the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho, et al.), yes?

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.

[ModerateCoward]

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.

There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.

There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?

Alberta is 1.72% Mormon, but I wasn't really referring to exit polls; they're geographically concentrated enough that it should be possible to tell from the election results.

There's no detailed religious information available for rural areas, but Lethbridge in 2001 was 8.6% Mormon.

[Hatman]

Mormons will go WRP. Almost all of them are in the Taber-Warner-Cardston riding, which might be a plurality mormon, if not a majority. It was the only AA riding back in 2004.

[adma]

I think your Canadian bias is coming out here.

The WRP is almost a carbon copy of the latest dominant wave of movement conservatism down here in the states. It does have a distinctly western flavor and reminds me a lot of the modern Idaho GOP's rhetoric. In general, Albertan politics reminds me of Idahoan politics in style, rhetoric and even the demographic divides to an extent. The PCs are like perceived RINOs in Idaho.

You mean like (if we go a state southward) Jon Huntsman Republicans?

Even so, it's hard for me to concile the WRP that aggressively with, if we may take an Idaho example, the "Helen Chenoweth" school of nutbar Republicanism...

[Hatman]

Would the Idaho Republicans say the same thing?: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-smith-abortion-response-friday.html

[Hatman]

I have created an Alberta map gallery, including maps of provincial elections going back to 1997: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/alberta.html

I would love to make 1993 and 1989 as well (very interesting elections), but I don't have any maps from those years.

[Smid]

Fantastic job, mate!

[You kip if you want to...]

Most personable party leader ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5P5OxlP6KY

[Hatman]

Fantastic job, mate!

Thanks. Ive added federal maps to going back to 1997 as well. I'll do more later, if I get the time.

[Hatman]

Most personable party leader ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5P5OxlP6KY

I remember that. It was right after she became leader.

[Hatman]

Added the 2004 Senate nominee map:

[RogueBeaver]

Getting nasty out there.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/alberta/Tories+Wildrose+Campaign+erupts+into+words/6426374/story.html