Alberta 2012

[lilTommy]

Because no one wants to be left out of a ruckus

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/06/albertavotes2012-mason-letter-healthcare-wildrose.html

[Lincoln Republican]

Have the Progressive Conservatives gone into panic mode yet?

[Smid]

I've updated the blank map in the gallery (and also on the first page of this thread) to remove the Greens as an option, and to change the Wildrose colour to green.

[LastVoter]

I wonder what would be the game plan for Liberals or Dippers in Alberta? They obviously can't rise above 30% even if the other party collapses. It seems to me at least Canada is somewhat swing able unlike a lot of US. Try to move to the center(closer to Tories) and attempt to assistance their character based on scandals/corruption/etc?

[Hatman 🍁]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

[LastVoter]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

[Smid]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

I think this link to Krago's poll-by-poll maps has been posted previously. Scroll down to Calgary. I believe there are some provincial ones out there, too.

[LastVoter]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

I think this link to Krago's poll-by-poll maps has been posted previously. Scroll down to Calgary. I believe there are some provincial ones out there, too.

Pretty anomalous.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.

[lilTommy]

I wonder what would be the game plan for Liberals or Dippers in Alberta? They obviously can't rise above 30% even if the other party collapses. It seems to me at least Canada is somewhat swing able unlike a lot of US. Try to move to the center(closer to Tories) and attempt to assistance their character based on scandals/corruption/etc?

Hmmm from what i have been seeing (basically monitoring the Edmonton Journal, CBC, Globe) the Liberals are trying to out-NDP-the-NDP running on planks like eliminating Tuition (i think this is geared to holding Edmonton Riverview home of UofAlberta campus). The NDP is playing two familiar cards; Health care and a newer Jackish "lets all play civil and nice" approach. The NDP presented the most moderate and cost effective platform (nothing splashy like the WR or tories). The NDP is playing to its base, going after the Liberal supporters... the Liberals are just trying to hold on for dear life. Of the two, the NDP has the most momentum or vigure from what ive seen of the CBC news coverage.
And yup, Hatman has it right... the big difference between Edmonton and Calgary is that Calgary is one sprawling suburb, like Mississauga with more offices; edmonton has a urban city feel in the core and Strathcona areas from what my ALberta friends tell  me

[Hash]

Edmonton-Riverview is held by the Liberals, not the NDP.

[lilTommy]

Edmonton-Riverview is held by the Liberals, not the NDP.

... i know, i said "holding" Edmonton-Riverview. With Taft gone, it makes this riding more vulnerable for the Liberals, the only "safe" Liberal seat would probably be Centre in large part to Blakemann (one n?)

[RogueBeaver]

All the subtlety of a train derailment.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/alberta-tories-play-race-card-call-wildrose-party-of-old-white-men-in-election-146856345.html

[tpfkaw]

Were the PCs this left-wing before the election?  They're starting to sound like Elizabeth Warren or something.

[RogueBeaver]

Were the PCs this left-wing before the election?  They're starting to sound like Elizabeth Warren or something.

They were usually squishy centrists, but never to my knowledge had they tried playing the demographic cards. This could well be yet another self-nuking. Redford will be asked about this at the debate- whether she'll weasel, apologize or defend I don't know. What I do know is that they richly deserve what's coming to them.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

[RogueBeaver]

It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

(Insert joke about converts here)

[mileslunn]

It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

He never struck me as that ideological, if anything he seemed more like an opportunist and only run under the PC banner so as to have an influence in government and when that failed, took his marbles and went over to the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Things are getting interesting...

New Leger poll:

WRP: 35.5 (-6)
PC: 34 (-)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Lib: 12.5 (+3)

Edmonton (the media fabricated NDP surge in the city has created just that...)
PC: 33 (-4)
WRP: 24 (-1)
NDP: 23 (+3)
Lib: 15 (+3)

Calgary
WRP: 43 (-5)
PC: 29 (-4)
Lib: 16 (+5)
NDP: 8 (+1)

Rest
PC: 41 (+11) !!!
WRP: 40 (-14)
NDP: 8 (+1)
Lib: 6 (+1)

Junk poll, conducted over Easter, or reality?

[RogueBeaver]

Until we see confirmation, junk poll. Last I checked Wildrose didn't self-nuke over the weekend.

[You kip if you want to...]

In the event of a minority government (i'm not sure what the convention is in Canada, you guys are more experienced in minority governments), surely the Liberals and the NDP give confidence to the PCs rather than let Wildrose in, right?

[RogueBeaver]

In the event of a minority government (i'm not sure what the convention is in Canada, you guys are more experienced in minority governments), surely the Liberals and the NDP give confidence to the PCs rather than let Wildrose in, right?

Yep. Redford's a McGuinty Liberal, so Sherman won't have much trouble having his demands met.

[LastVoter]

Could the right-wing vote be split enough that NDP and Liberals actually have some power? Wildrose might actually move Alberta to the left!

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.

[LastVoter]

Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.

Yea but that would lead to a lot of face palming by Albertans if they elect a more left-wing government on accident by voting WRP.  Also Edmonton is winnable by red/orange, so that is like 20% of total seats.