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Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 24425 times)
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change08
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« Reply #225 on: April 10, 2012, 09:58:31 pm »
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Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.
Yea but that would lead to a lot of face palming by Albertans if they elect a more left-wing government on accident by voting WRP.

Living in a province where your choices are the PCs and the Wildrose is reason enough to face palm, nevermind accidentally electing a government.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #226 on: April 11, 2012, 03:45:06 am »
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Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.
What's with the Liberal strength in the city's northeast? Not where you'd expect it.
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« Reply #227 on: April 11, 2012, 04:02:31 am »
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Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.
What's with the Liberal strength in the city's northeast? Not where you'd expect it.

High number of immigrants from South Asia (my understanding is Vietnam and more recently, India). I think lots of manufacturing up there, too, and aircraft noise from the airport. I'll try to post a link to the demographic maps thread (although it's listed in the "special threads" thread).
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« Reply #228 on: April 11, 2012, 05:33:00 am »
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Here is the demographic thread. There are some federal maps of Calgary near the bottom of the first page and some additional language maps on the second page. You'll note the combination of generally high % of low income, low % of high income, high number of manufacturing employees, low number with degrees, high number of trades, etc. Additionally, in the language maps, the highest proportion speaking a non-official language at 35% (the next highest is below 30%).

I asked my brother-in-law about it and he said mostly the immigrants are Indian, but I asked about Vietnamese and he said you can get good Vietnamese food there. Also a large number of generally low income immigrants, including from Europe.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #229 on: April 11, 2012, 05:49:32 am »
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So I guess the complete lack of red in the city centre is the only genuinely surprising bit. Smiley
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« Reply #230 on: April 11, 2012, 07:06:20 am »
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So I guess the complete lack of red in the city centre is the only genuinely surprising bit. Smiley

Possibly vote splitting with the NDP? It's fairly red at the provincial level. Perhaps hometown advantage for Harper? Or low expectations for the Liberals leading to low turnout?
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« Reply #231 on: April 11, 2012, 07:37:35 am »
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A tale of two cities... nothing new to us

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/10/albertavotes2012-vote-compass-edmonton-calgary-differences.html

Calgary's "centre" or the cities core is all Liberal, they held all the seats under the old distribution and if they can work their vote they may be able to hold one or two. Except Currie which was Taylors seat and he sits as an Alberta Party member but ain't running. Interestingly the seats the Liberals hold were the one the NDP held in the 80s (Mountain View and McCall as its called now).
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« Reply #232 on: April 11, 2012, 04:00:24 pm »
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Filed under "no sh**"
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« Reply #233 on: April 11, 2012, 05:24:46 pm »
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1993 election map Smiley

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« Reply #234 on: April 11, 2012, 05:30:44 pm »
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_1917
That's a lot of clicking(starting with 2008).
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« Reply #235 on: April 11, 2012, 08:35:44 pm »
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1989

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« Reply #236 on: April 11, 2012, 09:08:39 pm »
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Back to polls now, the Leger poll was most definitely an outlier. 2 new polls:

Forum Research

WRP: 43 (n/c)
PC: 31 (+2)
NDP: 11 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-3)

ThinkHQ

WRP: 43 (n/c)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Lib: 12 (+1)

so yeah, no major shifts...

ThinkHQ breakdown

Edmonton:
WRP: 30 (-1)
PC: 30 (n/c)
NDP: 18 (+1)
Lib: 17 (-1)

Calgary:
WRP: 48 (+1)
PC: 26 (-3)
Lib: 13 (+2)
NDP: 10 (+3)

Rest:
WRP: 49
PC: 31
NDP: 11
Lib: 5

Forum Research

Edmonton
PC: 32 (-1)
WRP: 29 (+3)
NDP: 18 (n/c)
Lib: 16 (n/c)

Calgary
WRP: 50 (+2)
PC: 32 (+6)
Lib: 8 (-6)
NDP: 8 (n/c)

North
WRP: 49 (n/c)
PC: 32 (+3)
Lib: 6 (-3)
NDP: 5 (-2)

South
WRP: 52 (-5)
PC: 25 (+1)
Lib: 10 (+2)
NDP: 9 (+3)

More statistical noise.
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« Reply #237 on: April 11, 2012, 09:13:23 pm »
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Stat noise or are we seeing pro-PC strategic voting emerging?
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« Reply #238 on: April 11, 2012, 09:20:36 pm »
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Ugh. I was really hoping the Socialists would place in fourth here, but it looks like the Grits are going to prevent that from happening.
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« Reply #239 on: April 11, 2012, 09:55:39 pm »
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Ugh. I was really hoping the Socialists would place in fourth here, but it looks like the Grits are going to prevent that from happening.

Do you write for the Daily Telegraph c. 1959?
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« Reply #240 on: April 11, 2012, 11:05:11 pm »
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Stat noise or are we seeing pro-PC strategic voting emerging?

The Liberals are polling at about half of what they got in 2008 when they had something like 26% of the vote province-wide...but their vote collapsed before the election was even called. Some of it was probably a generic anti-PC vote that shifted to the Wild Rose and some of it probably went to the PC when Redford won the leadership since she is a Liberal masquerading as a PC in the first place. I think that at 10-13% the Liberals are at their floor and are unlikely to go any lower. The NDP is consistently up a bit from the 8.5% they got in 2008 and are likely to get 11-12% this time. They will almost certainly get more seats than the Liberals (who may get wiped off the map). I don't see NDP voters going PC at all.

The one thing that COULD still happen is that if enough doubts are raised about Danielle Smith - some WRA votes might go back to the PCs or to a seemingly safer anti-PC party like the Libs or NDP.
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« Reply #241 on: April 12, 2012, 01:49:11 pm »
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More debate stuff. Smith defused the SoCon strawman, so long as she doesn't gaffe she'll be fine.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Thomson+Leaders+debate+could+prove+pivotal+point+election/6445565/story.html
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« Reply #242 on: April 12, 2012, 02:50:16 pm »
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Debate is tonight. Wondering if I will watch it, since the Sens are playing their first playoff game tonight.
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« Reply #243 on: April 12, 2012, 05:02:41 pm »
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You're seriously considering Albertan politics over the NHL playoffs? wtf is wrong with you?
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« Reply #244 on: April 12, 2012, 05:10:30 pm »
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You're seriously considering Albertan politics over the NHL playoffs? wtf is wrong with you?

Maybe because I love politics more. And, we're only talking the first round here. The Sens will probably lose anyways. Realigning elections in Alberta only happen every 40 years.
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« Reply #245 on: April 12, 2012, 07:38:46 pm »
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Fairly scripted so far. The format is panel questions.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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« Reply #246 on: April 12, 2012, 07:43:01 pm »
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Squabbling over healthcare.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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« Reply #247 on: April 12, 2012, 07:50:09 pm »
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Sherman's talking a lot about tax increases... and Alberta just posted a record surplus.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



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« Reply #248 on: April 12, 2012, 07:54:56 pm »
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Redford's the one on defence, not Smith.

Mason: "You're stealing, Ms. Redford, from future generations because you don't have a way to pay for your promises." "You have thrown out your budget... bribing them with their own money."

Smiley
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« Reply #249 on: April 12, 2012, 08:12:14 pm »
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Online link? I wanna see if WRP are clowns like the tea party in America.
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