Alberta 2012

[Smid]

LOL at the 11% who thought Sherman was the best speaker.

"Looked and sounded like a Premier" was an interesting question. Especially considering you have two women, and Indian and well, the NDP guy. Not traditional Premier qualities.

Sounds to me like the 11% made their mind up about that before the debate began... Perhaps 11% really is the Liberal floor this election?

[RogueBeaver]

Probably. I mean, he talked about tax increases (not quite so suicidal as to be specific) for 45 minutes nonstop and the debate analyses hardly mention that. Yeesh.

[Hatman]

His message would have been better could he speak less choppily.

[Hatman]

A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

[RogueBeaver]

A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

Could the Liberals be shut out? Also, does it mean anything seat-wise if the PCs drop below 30 and/or WRP hits 50?

[RogueBeaver]

Good profile from the G&M.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-is-she-albertas-sarah-palin-or-the-future-of-canada/article2402264/singlepage/#articlecontent

Lougheed & Getty endorse Redford.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Wildrose%2Bvictory%2Bwould%2Bgood%2BAlberta%2BCanada/6458494/story.html

[Hatman]

I don't like the Sarah Palin comparisons, Danielle Smith is much more moderate, and is well... more well spoken. She knows her stuff.

[You kip if you want to...]

I don't like the Sarah Palin comparisons, Danielle Smith is much more moderate, and is well... more well spoken. She knows her stuff.

It's because she's a young, conservative woman with a strong personality. You don't get many like that.

And her voice sounds similar.

[Smid]

Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.

[The Vorlon]

Not often you see a party die in Alberta.

Alberta had always has two possible governing parties.  The red Tories and the blue Tories.

For 41 years they agreed to run a joint candidate in the provincial election, this is the year the marriage fell apart.

Wild rose will get 50 something seats, the PCs the bulk of the rest.

Liberals could be wiped out, NDP will take a handful.

Objectively speaking smith and Redford were pretty close in the debate, but folks just like smith more as a person.

Barring a meltdown, this thing is over.

[mileslunn]

A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

Strategic voting probably.  I know some people who went Liberal in Alberta but are going PC this time just to keep the WRP out of power.  Add to the fact Redford is more of a Joe Clark style Tory than one like Harper whereas Danielle Smith is probably closer to Harper although a little less experienced and more likeable.

[mileslunn]

Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.

Anybody have the federal results for each provincial riding.  It would be interesting to see how the federal parties fared.  Also in maybe another topic, we should try and do this for all provincial ridings across the country.  In Ontario, only the Northern Ontario ridings are necessary as the Southern ones are identical to their federal counterparts.  I also believe the Liberals won Calgary-McCall although I could be wrong, while I think the NDP won 2 or 3 in Edmonton federally.  I think they also took Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood despite losing Edmonton East as the NDP was strong in the southwestern corner of the riding.  I think Edmonton Centre went Tory federally although they probably got in the 30s only, but the NDP and Liberals I think split the centre-left vote here unlike elsewhere in the city.  Could be the effect of Laurie Blakeman as well as the holdover from Anne McLellan who although out of politics, still is quite popular.

[RogueBeaver]

Den Tandt: No one should be surprised.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/15/michael-den-tandt-a-wildrose-victory-in-alberta-would-hardly-be-surprising/

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Questions for EarlAW and RogueBeaver

One week to go, have the PC's gone into panic mode?  Or

Do they have some kind of blitz operation for the final week in an effort to pull this thing out of the fire?  Or

Are they resigned to losing the election and simply trying to salvage whatever they can at this point?

What do you think?

Thanks.  

[RogueBeaver]

They had one strategy with two parts: 1) Palinize Smith 2) Build flaming social-issues strawmen, mostly on abortion and gay marriage. Both failed. Barring any major reversal, they're headed for a "five-spiral crash", to quote GWB in another context.

[Hatman]

They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

Thank you RogueBeaver and EarlAW.

Much appreciated.

In that case, from what both of you seem to agree on, the election would appear to be all but over except for the vote counting.

[Hatman]

Thank you RogueBeaver and EarlAW.

Much appreciated.

In that case, from what both of you seem to agree on, the election would appear to be all but over except for the vote counting.

Yeah, the parties have been stagnant since the beginning of the campaign. No one has any momentum, so the WRP will probably coast to victory.

[Smid]

Liberals switching to PC could mean a PC pickup in Edmonton-Gold Bar. Federally it voted Conservative over NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona, so I think it's more likely to be one of the areas which could possibly even see a swing to PC, especially if the Liberal vote continues to decline (and Earl makes the point of Liberal-PC vote switching). PC strength/Wildrose weakness in Edmonton probably makes this riding more favourable to the PCs than many other ridings.

It would be quite interesting if, despite losing swathes of ridings across the province, the PCs could actually gain a seat.

Anybody have the federal results for each provincial riding.  It would be interesting to see how the federal parties fared.  Also in maybe another topic, we should try and do this for all provincial ridings across the country.  In Ontario, only the Northern Ontario ridings are necessary as the Southern ones are identical to their federal counterparts.  I also believe the Liberals won Calgary-McCall although I could be wrong, while I think the NDP won 2 or 3 in Edmonton federally.  I think they also took Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood despite losing Edmonton East as the NDP was strong in the southwestern corner of the riding.  I think Edmonton Centre went Tory federally although they probably got in the 30s only, but the NDP and Liberals I think split the centre-left vote here unlike elsewhere in the city.  Could be the effect of Laurie Blakeman as well as the holdover from Anne McLellan who although out of politics, still is quite popular.

Krago did some great maps of city-wide federal vote, and the506 also did poll maps of individual ridings (his show winner and also support for each party, but only within one riding, whereas Krago's only show winner, but across the whole city for geographic trends, so I'd recommend looking at both. Krago's maps are at the Rabble website (I think I posted a link last week in this thread) and the506 has his own website, which I've linked to above.

[RogueBeaver]

Hatman, when's your final projection going up?

[Smid]

They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

I saw that site last week, but it seems a bit heavily weighted for the Liberals. Of course, I'm glad when the "united" left gets it wrong, but I think if I were them, I'd switch E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar around. Both are largely covered by the E-Strathcona federal riding, but Gold Bar generally voted Conservative, while Riverview (south of the river) voted NDP federally. Of course, of the two, Riverview is probably the riding more likely to stay in the hands of either the Liberals or NDP, which is part of the reason I think the site is a bit biased to the Liberals.

[Hatman]

They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

I saw that site last week, but it seems a bit heavily weighted for the Liberals. Of course, I'm glad when the "united" left gets it wrong, but I think if I were them, I'd switch E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar around. Both are largely covered by the E-Strathcona federal riding, but Gold Bar generally voted Conservative, while Riverview (south of the river) voted NDP federally. Of course, of the two, Riverview is probably the riding more likely to stay in the hands of either the Liberals or NDP, which is part of the reason I think the site is a bit biased to the Liberals.

Well, I compared it to my projections, and I found it to be more NDP friendly than my predictions, so I don't know...

Hatman, when's your final projection going up?

I plan on two more projections, one tomorrow and one on Sunday.

[Smid]

Fair enough - you have more reason to be sensitive to Liberal vs NDP bias than I do, indeed, anything other than a balanced assessment of those two parties is likely to benefit the party I support, so I'll accept you vouching for them.

[ModerateCoward]

Can the PC's try to suppress Wildrose turnout aka the last page of the Rethuglican playbook? Seems to me it's a part of Harper playbook(the phone calls). This should be some good fodder for PC's.

[lilTommy]

This kinda stuff has started to come out... this "born this way" nonsense, and a link i posted earlier to a review done by daveberta.ca of some of the WR candidates. Now this probably plays better in Edmonton over Calgary but Smith might have a hard time playing the moderate card when those she leads appear more more and extremist, if the media picks this stuff up.
I've been hearing (from my bfs friends in Calgary, mostly located around the University in the NW) that they are planning to vote strategically for the PCs. this is a group who would otherwise vote Liberal...
Ya the polls are looking dead, its all going to depend on how the local riding-by-riding campaigns go.
whoever was looking for the Federal poll-by-poll votes, earls page is my one-stop-shop (nice plug eh )
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/