Alberta 2012

[Hatman]

Expect some different numbers in my next projection, as I compile a lot of feedback I have got, plus that strategic vote site, that seems to be getting some "on the ground" feedback which I wish I could get (well, I'm getting some at least).

[Hatman]

BTW, CBC did a poll that was released today (first post debate poll that I can see)

WRP: 43 (what else is new?)
PC: 36
Lib: 11
NDP: 9

Big surprise out of Calgary:
WRP: 45, PC 41 (lots of strategic votes from Liberals going to the Tories)
In Edmonton:
WRP 37, PC 31 (huh?)
Rural areas
WRP: 52, PC 31

Not sure how valid this poll is, I'd like to see some more post debate polls

ETA:

Calgary
WRP: 45
PC 41
NDP: 8
Lib: 5

Edmonton
WRP: 37
PC: 31
Lib: 19
NDP: 12 (yeah, right...)

Conclusion: Junk poll

[Hatman]

New prediction http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april_16.html

[RogueBeaver]

New prediction http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april_16.html

[Smid]

As always, some great work, Earl!

I plan on sharing on Facebook later today (perhaps over lunch, or after 5), when all my work-related friends won't think I have it open at the office all day...

[Hatman]

Excellent. Looks like I've already got a few ridings wrong though (read comments). But that's good. People don't complain when you get things right. And I want to get this right.

[lilTommy]

I wasn't expecting this:

http://www.calgarysun.com/2012/04/16/alberta-ndp-boss-lands-lethbridge-leader

I don't think it will change the NDPs fortunes in Lethbridge, but might help their numbers esp in LWest where the NDP was really hoping they could have a strong showing. Could this push them over the top to win? probably not, but might help them bust through 20%

Great work Earl, Ya i was wondering why Calder was in the too-close-to-call... I think if anything this is the next NDP riding since Eggan has more "name cred" then Bilous (beverly-clearview) but i agree the NDP "should" be able to skate away with 4 at a minimum, 6 if the votes get split their way (Glenora and maybe Gold Bar... or Riverview or Manning).

[Hatman]

I saw that endorsement, and I gave the NDP candidate a 5 point bump there.

If comments on my blog are any indication, seats where the WRP will win are going to be rather random, and depending on local campaigns. Maybe I should troll the 308.com comments to see what people are saying there, as he gets more comments, and probably many of them (unfulfilled) complaints.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

I'm not sure Earl. Most comments on 308 are stupid mindless hacks who get into trite debates with other hacks, I haven't noticed a lot of more serious complaints about his predictions.

Anyhow, good luck with your predictions. I hope you do better than 308 so that you can prove that UNS/scientific/math-based predictions are stupid.

[Hatman]

I'm not sure Earl. Most comments on 308 are stupid mindless hacks who get into trite debates with other hacks, I haven't noticed a lot of more serious complaints about his predictions.

Anyhow, good luck with your predictions. I hope you do better than 308 so that you can prove that UNS/scientific/math-based predictions are stupid.

I've been getting stupid mindless hacks on my site too But, there have been some serious complaints as well. Some of them are "WHY DO YOU HAVE SUCH AND SUCH AHEAD THAT'S NOT WHAT'S HAPPENING", but that's ok, I realize that's how I would probably comment as well if it were someone else's blog.

[DL]

Regarding Lethbridge, keep in mind that the federal NDP got 27% of the vote in 2011 and the federal riding is not just the city of Lethbridge but also includes a lot of rock-ribbed Tory rural areas. The University of lethbridge did a poll of the two Lethbridge provincial seats in February and they had the NDP at 20% in Leth-West back then.

[Hatman]

Regarding Lethbridge, keep in mind that the federal NDP got 27% of the vote in 2011 and the federal riding is not just the city of Lethbridge but also includes a lot of rock-ribbed Tory rural areas. The University of lethbridge did a poll of the two Lethbridge provincial seats in February and they had the NDP at 20% in Leth-West back then.

Good to know. I do warn you that a lot of that support was inflated because of the terrible Conservative candidate in the riding. But it is a good point. Outside of the Lethbridge proper, that riding has to be the most right wing in Alberta (or Canada, for that matter) because of all the Mormons.

[Hatman]

Forum Research Poll

WRP: 40 (-3)
PC: 33 (+2)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (n/c)

Calgary
WRP: 46 (-4)
PC: 32 (n/c)
Lib: 11 (+3)
NDP: 6 (-2)

*scratches head*

Edmonton
PC: 38 (+6)
WRP: 26 (-3)
NDP: 18 (n/c)
Lib: 13 (-3)

This makes more sense

North
WRP: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 19 (!)
Lib: 5

Tightening up. Small sample size though.

Central
WRP: 50
PC: 30
NDP: 10
Lib: 5

South
WRP: 49
PC: 26
NDP: 10
Lib: 8

[RogueBeaver]

What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

[Vasall des Midas]

This election is probably somewhat hard to poll as it's a new alignment. I wouldn't read anything into minor swings.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

It's an election that happens to be taking place within the country of Canada.

[Hatman]

What's going on? Is it that homophobe's blog comments, stat noise? :puzzled:

Now that I compare it, the last FR poll had the Liberals much lower in Calgary than other pollsters, so that's more of a correction than a gain in support.

[ModerateCoward]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

[RogueBeaver]

Leaders losing control?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Exhausted+parties+losing+control+says+political+analyst+week+before/6469227/story.html

Shocker.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Wildrose%20Party,%20Danielle%20Smith,%20favoured%20by%20Tory%20MPs,%20says%20Rob%20Anders/6467641/story.html

Not so shocking.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alison+Redford+condemns+Wildrose+party+having+small+Alberta+vision/6473474/story.html

Assholes. Leave Klein alone.

http://blogs.calgaryherald.com/2012/04/15/kleins-wife-friends-angry-at-pc-criticism-of-sick-ex-premier/

[Hatman]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

[ModerateCoward]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

[Hatman]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

I could, but that's very time consuming. Plus, most of Calgary is fairly demographically homogenous, so the only thing preventing most ridings from going WRP will be candidate strength. I'm going to let others let me know what's going on. That way, if I get something wrong, I can say "well, so and so said this" or "no one said anything"

[ModerateCoward]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

I could, but that's very time consuming. Plus, most of Calgary is fairly demographically homogenous, so the only thing preventing most ridings from going WRP will be candidate strength. I'm going to let others let me know what's going on. That way, if I get something wrong, I can say "well, so and so said this" or "no one said anything"

Well you could at least change the prediction of total seats to be a bit more PC favorable since the random swings are likely to favor them, and say give a statistical 66% confidence interval instead of just counting up the seats as based on a uniform swing. I don't think Alberta will have a jihad with 70 extreme right-wingers getting elected. Even in 2010 in US, some southern states still voted democratic(Arkansas), and I don't think this is nearly as serious.
I'd put the 2(95% confidence) deviation number of Wildrose seats between 45-65.

[adma]

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

At this point, the least-likelies are probably the seats of Mason and Notley, if that can be taken as a hint-hint.

[Hatman]

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

At this point, the least-likelies are probably the seats of Mason and Notley, if that can be taken as a hint-hint.

Duly noted