Alberta 2012

[lilTommy]

http://toryorwildrose.ca/
... have some fun with that

This elections sounds a lot like Quebec last May except not so much of a surprise... where can the NDP win? what ridings? by how much?

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

[Hatman 🍁]

I got 9/13 before it started asking the same questions again

[Leftbehind]

http://toryorwildrose.ca/
... have some fun with that

lol really showing their progressiveness, there.

[MaxQue]

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

It will make them rise in polls, since their average voter is homophobic, christian supremacist and a oppose science because it isn't religion.

[lilTommy]

There is quite a bit of bad publicity out now in the major media outlets, from the homophobic-ness, to the racist mildly white supremacist comments, to the denial of climate change research... not sure how badly thats going to affect them, the polls don't seem to be indicating much movement so...

It will make them rise in polls, since their average voter is homophobic, christian supremacist and a oppose science because it isn't religion.

I fiund myself tempted to agree with you... but from the Albertans i know (including my bf who went to UofCalgary) they aren't that homophobic, facistist as WR makes them seem... at least in the cities where they are more small-c economic conservatives. Its odd cause Calgary/edmonton are home to large south asian groups and edmonton has a large ethiopian population.
BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

[RogueBeaver]

I'm getting flashbacks to 8 years ago.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

So is there any actual cause for serious concern on the part of Wildrose at this point or is that little bit of poll movement just noise?

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll:

I'm not showing the change numbers, because their last poll was the Easter poll that was sh**

WRP: 42 
PC: 36 (highest from a credible poll late March)
NDP: 10
Lib: 9

Edmonton
PC: 35
WRP: 33
NDP: 17
Lib: 13

Calgary
WRP: 43
PC: 40 (ok, so this is sounding a lot more like that CBC poll)
Lib: 9
NDP: 5

Rest:
WRP: 49
PC: 34
NDP: 8
Lib: 6

Poll also shows that 27% of Calgarians will be voting strategically.

[MaxQue]

BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

Religious people in people in rural Quebec? Not really. Churches are being sold or downsized eveywhere in Quebec.
And not really right-wing. Northern Rural Quebec is quite Northern Rural Ontario.

But I'm getting your point. Some people are voting for change, not for ideology.

[LastVoter]

This is getting interesting. Another 5 point surge of PC's in Calgary and 5 surge of NDP in Edmonton and it would be time to get the popcorn ready.

[lilTommy]

BUT just like we can't assume that all those who in PQ voted NDP are actually social democrats, cause esp in the rural ridings some are equally right-wing and religious you just add in francophone

Religious people in people in rural Quebec? Not really. Churches are being sold or downsized eveywhere in Quebec.
And not really right-wing. Northern Rural Quebec is quite Northern Rural Ontario.

But I'm getting your point. Some people are voting for change, not for ideology.

Thank you, and i didn't mean to assume since my point was don't assume. Well rural people tend to more socially conservative maybe less "church" religious but can be just as god-burns-you-in-hell like. With quebec i find in some rural areas its more a language and "cultural" desire too keep the country as french white catholic as possible.
I'm already eating popcorn! If i were Mason (NDP) i'd start the chanting that the NDP is now the only opposition in edmonton to stopping the WR.

[RogueBeaver]

Has anyone here heard of Janet Brown before? Her name rings a very vague bell to me. Predicting a WRP seat count in the 50s based on that Leger poll.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Wildrose%2Bprojected%2Bseats/6482255/story.html

[they don't love you like i love you]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Analyzing the rest of the seats: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-analysis-rest-of.html

[adma]

Interesting with Doug Faulkner in Ft McMurray: a Wildrose candidate who ran for the federal PCs in 2000 and the federal Libs in 2004...

[Nichlemn]

What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

It might be, but don't look at the 2011 election results to find that out, as the Tory candidate (now MP) ran a non campaign and took a big hit in the polls because of it. Cardston-Taber-Warner has been very open to voting for other right wing parties though. Alberta First got 26% of the vote there in 2001 while Social Credit got 18% in 1997. Both parties were border line fringe at the time.

Interesting with Doug Faulkner in Ft McMurray: a Wildrose candidate who ran for the federal PCs in 2000 and the federal Libs in 2004...

That's true. And now he'll probably finally get elected under a partisan banner (he's been elected before obviously, he's the mayor)

[Smid]

What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

I believe the Wildrose leader ran in Cardstone-Taber-Warner last election, which could explain the higher vote there. The most conservative riding federally was Crowfoot. Provincially that's Drumheller-Stettler, Strathmore-Brooks and I think Little Bow. Maybe parts of other ridings. If I've misspelt any ridings or left out obvious provincial ridings in Crowfoot, I apologise. I'm not on computer and away from my maps and tables.

[MaxQue]

What's the most conservative provincial riding in Alberta (by federal Conservative vote)? Cardston-Taber-Warner, the only seat the AA won in 2004? How high would the federal Conservative vote be there?

I believe the Wildrose leader ran in Cardstone-Taber-Warner last election, which could explain the higher vote there. The most conservative riding federally was Crowfoot. Provincially that's Drumheller-Stettler, Strathmore-Brooks and I think Little Bow. Maybe parts of other ridings. If I've misspelt any ridings or left out obvious provincial ridings in Crowfoot, I apologise. I'm not on computer and away from my maps and tables.

Exactly, all Drumheller-Stettler, western tier of Strathmore-Brooks (the Strathmore part), none of Little Bow, a small part of Battle-River--Wainwright (probably not much populated), east part of Wetaskiwin-Camrose (the Camrose part), most of Chestermere--Rocky-View (except Rocky view area) and eastern half of Olds--Didsbury--Three-Hills (the Three Hills half, which seems very rural compared to the other half.).

[adma]

Crowfoot's "most Conservative" advantage is gained from having no scrap of Lethbridge/Medicine Hat urbanity or Banff/Canmore leftish resort-cosmopolitanism or big blotches of First Nations a la Macleod to skew the picture.

[Vosem]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans? Hopefully similar parties can do better and win across Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

Sort of by necessity, though, really.

[Hatman 🍁]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans?

As I've said, not quite. Smith is still pro choice and pro same sex marriage.

Sort of by necessity, though, really.

Hmmm... it would be interesting to see polls on those two social questions in Alberta. I suppose a majority would be in favour of both, but probably not a majority of WRP voters.

[Holmes]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans? Hopefully similar parties can do better and win across Canada.

Alberta's the only province that this can really happen in, and not because of Wildrose politics; it's just fatigue towards the PCs. There's no real alternatives in Alberta other than the Wildrose, as opposed to other provinces. Look at BC, the emergence of a new(ish) right wing party, the BC Conservatives, totally threw a wrench in the BC Libs re-election chances (not that they weren't gonna lose before they were a threat though) and lost two by-elections the other night because of it.