Alberta 2012

[Hatman]

Final prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-2012-election-final-prediction.html

[redcommander]

Whoa Danielle Smith is actually kind of hot. It's too bad she has to lead such a horrid party.

Just read the "Policy and identity" section of their Wikipedia article; so they're pretty much American Republicans? Hopefully similar parties can do better and win across Canada.

Alberta's the only province that this can really happen in, and not because of Wildrose politics; it's just fatigue towards the PCs. There's no real alternatives in Alberta other than the Wildrose, as opposed to other provinces. Look at BC, the emergence of a new(ish) right wing party, the BC Conservatives, totally threw a wrench in the BC Libs re-election chances (not that they weren't gonna lose before they were a threat though) and lost two by-elections the other night because of it.

Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).

[adma]

Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).

The result of its usurping the Socreds in 1991--and then when Gord Campbell assumed the leadership a few years later, the BC Grits officially inherited the "anti-socialist-horde party of record" mantle from Social Credit.  (Which led the leader responsible for the Liberals' 1991 breakthrough, Gordon Wilson, to set up a breakaway party and later to join the NDP.)

[lilTommy]

Why are the BC Liberals the de-facto conservative party in the province anyways? Aren't the federal Liberals more left-wing? (although that isn't saying much).

The result of its usurping the Socreds in 1991--and then when Gord Campbell assumed the leadership a few years later, the BC Grits officially inherited the "anti-socialist-horde party of record" mantle from Social Credit.  (Which led the leader responsible for the Liberals' 1991 breakthrough, Gordon Wilson, to set up a breakaway party and later to join the NDP.)

It goes back even farther then that to the 40s when the Liberals, SoCreds ran i want to say joint lists... but that might not be right. Anyway since then it has been all about stopping the NDP, so whichever "free enterprise" party was the strongest, or has the best leader or was the least corrupt was the defacto "right-wing" party. Everyone assumes the Liberals are leftwing; in reality they are socially liberal, fiscally moderate at best... and each province is a different flavour. we touched on this in the bc by-election thread

[lilTommy]

Interesting breakdown analysis Hatman! , i think we all gave up the liberals for dead but you have them winning two in calgary; granted those are the two most urban. progressive ridings in the city (Mountain View has NDP history too) and they ahve sitting Liberals so the campaigns can try and say the Liberals are the strategic vote. Lets hope that this is the case. If they win any is Calgary it has to be them two!
Edmonton, Raj losing Meadowlark? that will be a huge blow, and i don't disagree hes probably been a terrible leader for the party so far, but leaders do get some advantage (which i'm sure you have factored in
The air is a sense of change is coming, and there is high voter turnout at the advanced polls so, i'm waiting to see "whats-his-names" finals too...

I'm still crossing my fingers for a liberal-collapse-NDP-sweep but i'm an optimist

[lilTommy]

last poll i saw
http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/71110_Alberta_Issues_Poll_%28Forum_Research%29.pdf

Province
Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

Edmonton
Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1

[Hatman]

FR has a newer poll that shows very different numbers which came out after my prediction and thus will be ignored.

As for the Liberals, I seem to be the only one projecting they will win ANY seats let alone 4. But, I just couldn't see any other party winning those seats.

[Peter the Lefty]

The most recent poll on Wikipedia (released yesterday)
Wildrose-38%
PC's-36%
NDP-12%
Liberals-10%

Looks like a minority could be a possibility here. 

[Hatman]

My hypothesis: That poll was done on Sunday, and many WRP voters are probably religious and wont answer a poll on Sunday. As someone who has called people on Sundays for surveys, I can tell you there are people who get mad at us for calling on Sundays.

[Nichlemn]

When will results start coming in?

[RogueBeaver]

When will results start coming in?

10 PM Eastern.

[Senator MaxQue]

Polls are closing at 8PM, so 10PM eastern and 2PM for you.

[Nichlemn]

Are there any betting markets for the election?

[Holmes]

This can be potentially interesting. I care more about how it'll influence federal politics than the actual results, though. I would say hardly. Switching Harper's PCs for another right-wing party, lead by a federal Conservative. Who cares?

[RogueBeaver]

It won't have an effect on federal politics, though it will on federal policy. Smith wants the oil to go east.

[Holmes]

She must be stopped.

[RogueBeaver]

The last time a dynasty was toppled... Ontario PC, 1985.

[Smid]

This can be potentially interesting. I care more about how it'll influence federal politics than the actual results, though. I would say hardly. Switching Harper's PCs for another right-wing party, lead by a federal Conservative. Who cares?

There may be some federal implications, the oft-ignored-by-the-party "Conservative" part of its name has been a bit of a negative, I think, in some of the federal polls, because of the unpopularity of the provincial government. At least, Alberta always seems to be far lower in the polls than at the election (although I could be wrong).

BC will also be important federally. Again, the BC Liberals are probably seen as having more in common with the federal Conservatives, and the unpopularity of the provincial government, and the strength of the provincial NDP opposition, may be flowing through to NDP support in federal polls. From that perspective, it really doesn't surprise me that the NDP currently out-polls the Conservatives in federal polls in BC... and I suspect a provincial NDP government may help the Tories claw back some support in the province.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

CBC Election Night Coverage:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/live/2012/04/alberta-votes-election-night.html

[Smid]

Elections Alberta results page seems to be temporarily down. Here's the link, in case anyone wants to check it out once it starts working again: http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResults.cfm

[Nichlemn]

And votes coming in, PCs have very very early lead.

[Smid]

CBC's full size map: http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/albertavotes2012/map/fullscreen.html#/3

[RogueBeaver]

7-3 PC. What's going on?

[Nichlemn]

I'd wait for a few more polls to come in before jumping to any conclusions.

[Smid]

7-3 PC. What's going on?

What Nichlemn said. Little Bow was PC lead when the first poll came in.