Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 03, 2014, 02:17:56 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  Alberta 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] Print
Author Topic: Alberta 2012  (Read 23880 times)
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20585
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #550 on: April 26, 2012, 02:47:39 pm »
Ignore

Alberta is more like Texas or Montana.

I've been told its more OK or UT than TX or MT, but to me it's more like Alabama or Georgia.

Well, the border area is like Utah in the sense that there are a lot of Mormons there. But, I'm not sure why it would be like the US south at all. It's not poor, it doesn't have a huge number of African Americans, it has very different industries. They might both be conservative, but Alberta is far more libertarian than the south, which is more populist. I'd say parts of Ontario are more like the US south (SW Ontario, Central and Eastern Ontario maybe), but even that's a stretch.

There's also a few communities in Nova Scotia that have descendants of the underground railroad. I believe they still have a southern dialect.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1038
Canada
View Profile
« Reply #551 on: April 26, 2012, 03:10:05 pm »
Ignore

It tells you something about Canada compared to the US that Alberta is by far the most rightwing province in Canada, and even in Alberta Danielle Smith of Wildrose stated that she favoured same sex marriage and abortion rights and still got crushed in the election because Albertans saw her as a rightwing crackpot.
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38850
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #552 on: April 26, 2012, 03:16:28 pm »
Ignore

Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8741
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #553 on: April 26, 2012, 03:33:12 pm »
Ignore

It tells you something about Canada compared to the US that Alberta is by far the most rightwing province in Canada, and even in Alberta Danielle Smith of Wildrose stated that she favoured same sex marriage and abortion rights and still got crushed in the election because Albertans saw her as a rightwing crackpot.

Well, those issues are federal ones.
Logged
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20585
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #554 on: April 26, 2012, 03:48:38 pm »
Ignore

Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.

Why because of the Houston Oilers are the Edmonton Oilers? Heh. Parts of Edmonton are more like Austin, really.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6021
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #555 on: April 26, 2012, 04:33:16 pm »
Ignore

Strange map. I noticed the key is different from mine, as I used percentage of ballots while used percentage of votes.

Indeed strange. I wasn't sure the best way to total votes because of it being multiple fptp. Any advice would be appreciated. I picked the scale after arranging a column of maximum vote percentages in ascending order but percentage of ballots might give a different scale.

My observations - I'm guessing the Germain was from St Paul or somewhere up that way. Evergreen won in E-Strathcona. Shaikh sounds like he might be of a non-white ethnicity, he may have links to (be from) the C-McCall or C-Greenway community. Bracko was the former Liberal MLA from St Albert.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1078
United States


View Profile
« Reply #556 on: April 26, 2012, 05:56:34 pm »
Ignore

Quote
Well, the border area is like Utah in the sense that there are a lot of Mormons there. But, I'm not sure why it would be like the US south at all. It's not poor, it doesn't have a huge number of African Americans, it has very different industries. They might both be conservative, but Alberta is far more libertarian than the south, which is more populist. I'd say parts of Ontario are more like the US south (SW Ontario, Central and Eastern Ontario maybe), but even that's a stretch.

There's also a few communities in Nova Scotia that have descendants of the underground railroad. I believe they still have a southern dialect.


I can see, but you know the US South is BOTH Libertarian and Populist, and I don't see how Ontario is like the US South, I find it more like CA or NY.


Quote
Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.


I see Houston more like Calgary because of the oil industries, but unlike Calgary; Houston is liberal inner-city proper with conservative suburbs. Calgary seems to be conservative all over no matter where.

Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 522
View Profile
« Reply #557 on: April 26, 2012, 08:36:31 pm »
Ignore

I see Houston more like Calgary because of the oil industries, but unlike Calgary; Houston is liberal inner-city proper with conservative suburbs. Calgary seems to be conservative all over no matter where.

Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that--and of course, provincially, the central two Calgary seats remain Liberal.

(And beyond that, we can also USify the election by viewing Redford as the incumbent Democratic governor and Smith as her Republican challenger.  Remember: by US standards, Canadian conservativism can be quite moderate or even "liberal"--certainly so in Redford's case)
Logged
ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

P P
View Profile
« Reply #558 on: April 26, 2012, 09:42:23 pm »
Ignore

If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1078
United States


View Profile
« Reply #559 on: April 26, 2012, 09:49:24 pm »
Ignore

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.


Quote
Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that


Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2012, 09:59:41 pm by BaldEagle1991 »Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4466
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #560 on: April 26, 2012, 11:15:55 pm »
Ignore

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.


Quote
Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that


Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.
I looked over Dave's map and there are maybe 10 precints which are majority white and democratic total in DFW, and maybe same in Houston. Austin is better in that regard obviously. Still need a few more years before the white city dwellers in Texas get accustomed to urban problems.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1078
United States


View Profile
« Reply #561 on: April 27, 2012, 12:56:13 am »
Ignore

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.


Quote
Then again, the whys and wherefores of US racial politics play a big part in that


Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.
I looked over Dave's map and there are maybe 10 precints which are majority white and democratic total in DFW, and maybe same in Houston. Austin is better in that regard obviously. Still need a few more years before the white city dwellers in Texas get accustomed to urban problems.

What map of precincts? I'm new and need to know where.

As for the white city dwellers, they are already accustomed to urban problems, and for that they'll likely move out.
Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6021
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #562 on: April 27, 2012, 02:16:53 am »
Ignore

What map of precincts? I'm new and need to know where.

Scroll down a couple of boards, to "Political Geography and Demographics" within the "General Politics" cluster of boards. You are then looking for the DRA, which stands for Dave's Redistricting App (I've included the link to the thread so you can find it).

Have fun!!! (I shouldn't have told you about this... we probably won't see you for the next three weeks... it's seriously addictive!!!).
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #563 on: April 28, 2012, 04:17:47 am »
Ignore

Texas seems like a fairly reasonable comparison, with Dallas taking the place of Calgary and Houston that of Edmonton.

Why because of the Houston Oilers are the Edmonton Oilers? Heh. Parts of Edmonton are more like Austin, really.

And Calgary is an overgrown Lubbock. (And so are the suburban parts of Edmonton, of course.)

But yeah, Alberta is basically Montana with cities. Heh, maybe East Washington works best as a parallel.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 522
View Profile
« Reply #564 on: April 28, 2012, 04:46:21 am »
Ignore

Then again, I can also see Alberta as the kind of place which swung significantly ObamaBiden-ward in 2008, a la the Midwest/Mountain states (Utah not excluded).

As far as 2008 McCain-Palin swingers go...is there a Canadian equivalent at all?
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #565 on: April 28, 2012, 05:09:59 pm »
Ignore

Then again, I can also see Alberta as the kind of place which swung significantly ObamaBiden-ward in 2008, a la the Midwest/Mountain states (Utah not excluded).

As far as 2008 McCain-Palin swingers go...is there a Canadian equivalent at all?

I actually think the state closest to Alberta in terms of political values is Colorado.  The Deep South and Texas as well as Utah are a lot more conservative.  Yes the Democrats do win in Colorado sometimes but the right is more right wing in the US and the left is less left wing.  The Democrats would be like the PCs in Alberta and the Republicans like the WRA.  Colorado is generally fairly libertarian although not to the extent of same Ayn Rand much like Alberta while not that socially conservative except for a few pockets like in Alberta.  Also you have a similiar rural vs. urban split and in terms of religion a somewhat similiar profile unlike the South was is largely Evangelical Protestant and Utah which is mormon.  Alberta actually has the second highest percentage of no religious preference in Canada after BC.  In general in both Canada and the US, the West is the least religious.  Someone who is libertarian generally doesn't like rules, so they would not support left wing parties that advocate a more interventionist government, but also be wary of the church too. 
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #566 on: April 28, 2012, 05:18:50 pm »
Ignore

Having family from Alberta, I can give a good take on what happened here.  I don't think the Wildrose lost for anyone reason, but rather a combination of being seen as too extreme, but also too inexperienced and not ready to form government.  Even some who are more philosophically aligned with the WRA voted PC since they felt they were not ready for government, but could easily switch in 2016 if they show they are ready.  Even with the PC win, Alberta is still a Conservative province, not just not an ultra-conservative one and never was to begin with.  They elected Lougheed over 30 years ago who was a Red Tory like Alison Redford.  Yes they went Reform Party in the 90s, but so did BC, so some of that was a protest vote as I doubt all of those who voted Reform would have voted for them had they actually had a chance at forming government and thus would have come under greater scrutiny.  Ralph Klein was more conservative, but no more so than Mike Harris who won Ontario during the same period.  In 1993, Canada was downgraded and faced a debt crisis almost as bad as Greece and Portugal thus many not normally on the right voted for parties who promised to radically slash government spending simply as a reaction to the debt issue.  Even the Liberals federally made spending cuts far greater than the Tories now are making and interestingly enough the UK government based much of their budget cuts on what Martin did as finance minister in the 90s. 

In terms of social conservatism, Alberta isn't now nor has been a socially conservative province.  Yes the rural South is, but the Fraser Valley in BC, rural Southern New Brunswick, and parts of Central and Eastern Ontario are too.  Albertans generally don't care if you are gay, what your religion is, or ethnicity.  They only care about who you are as a person.

In terms of libertarianism, I think Alberta is libertarian in terms of they support a hands off approach government and are wary of an activist government, but not the Ayn Rand pure libertarianism is most still support universal health care and a free education system from K-12.  I would argue they still want less government so Redford has to be careful to not go too left wing or she may face trouble in 2016, but not try to out right wing the WRA either.  Lets remember in May 2011, 67% of Albertans voted Conservative while on 34% voted WRA meaning many federal Conservatives did stick with the PCs and with the combined right vote of 78%, that means around 3/4 of PC voters are federal Conservatives while only 1/4 strategic Liberal or NDP voters as well as some Liberals were probably centrist to begin with and voted for Joe Clark and Peter Lougheed, but found people like Harper or Klein too conservative so went Liberal then but have since returned, thus not all strategic votes. 

Also outside Edmonton, most ridings in Calgary and rural Alberta were won by less than 10% meaning it would take that big a voter shift to flip the results upside down to 60+ WRA seats and fewer than 20 PC seats.
Logged
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5180
United States


View Profile
« Reply #567 on: April 28, 2012, 08:15:50 pm »
Ignore

If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?
Logged

I apologize for being so adamantly right.
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #568 on: April 28, 2012, 09:35:39 pm »
Ignore

If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?

Neither I would say.  It is probably the only province that would be a swing state whereas every province would be a solid blue state.  Besides Ontario and Quebec are the only two provinces large enough to have much impact anyways unless it was a close election.  Both would go solidly Democrat the only difference is Quebec would be like DC in terms of Democrat support while Ontario would be more like the Southern New England states (MA, RI and CT) and New York.
Logged
ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

P P
View Profile
« Reply #569 on: April 29, 2012, 01:12:29 am »
Ignore

If Alberta were actually part of the US, it would probably be a lean Democratic state... something like Colorado but with a more urban population. I doubt Edmonton and Calgary would be good areas for socially conservative Republicans. But then again it's hard to know what Alberta would be like as a US state because surely it would have a very different set of people.

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I'm curious (this is obviously an unanswerable question, but I feel like posing it anyway)...considering the amount of influence a state of Alberta's size has on US politics, if Alberta joined the US, would the US tack left or would Alberta tack right?

Yeah... Alberta has a population about the size of Connecticut, so the influence would be limited. Only if the entirety of Canada was added would the US shift, and most definitely to the Left.

With time, Alberta and Saskatchewan would probably be opportunities for Republicans, but I don't know if anywhere else would.

Canada is becoming more right-wing unfortunately (IMO), so perhaps one day it will be very similar to the US.
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #570 on: April 30, 2012, 01:09:09 am »
Ignore

Actually Ontario would be large enough to have an impact if a swing state as it is roughly the same size as Illinois, bigger than Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while only smaller than California, Florida, New York, and Texas.  For example in 2000 and 2004, Bush likely wouldn't have won had Ontario been a state.  In the case of Alberta in 2000 it could have tipped things in favour of Al Gore if it went for him, but that election was a razor thin win so pretty much any state could have tipped the results in Gore's favour. 

As for Canada moving to the right, I would argue no more so than the US and Europe are.  Both of those areas are more conservative than they were 30 years ago.  I would argue there are two primary reasons for this.  The main one is you have an aging population and generally older people are more conservative than younger ones.

The other is shifting demographics in terms of area.  Generally the poorer areas which tend to lean more left are losing people while the more affluent regions which tend to lean more to the right are growing.  In the case of Canada, that would be Quebec and Atlantic Canada losing, while the West gaining, for the US, the rust belt states losing and sun belt states gaining, in Britain population loss in the Industrial North while gaining in the South of England and in the case of Germany, loss in East Germany and the Northern areas while growing in Southern Germany. 

Even shift in city population is having an impact too.  Here in Toronto, the downtown which has always been more left leaning isn't really growing while the 905 suburbs which are more conservative is where all the growth is.  Off course the hard right areas in both countries are losing people in many cases as rural areas are generally declining in population.  I believe in 2004, Bush won 97 of the 100 fastest growing counties, whereas here in Canada, the fastest growing areas are either Conservative or at least competitive for them (905 suburbs, Central Ontario, Calgary, Edmonton, bedroom communities surrounding Calgary and Edmonton, Okanagan Valley, Fraser Valley, Surrey, Richmond, North Nanaimo-Comox area).  By contrast the areas with almost no growth or losing population are generally not conservative friendly areas (Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, Acadian Coast of New Brunswick, Northern Quebec, Northern Ontario, the Territories).
Logged
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419


View Profile
« Reply #571 on: April 30, 2012, 01:37:21 am »
Ignore

Actually Ontario would be large enough to have an impact if a swing state as it is roughly the same size as Illinois, bigger than Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while only smaller than California, Florida, New York, and Texas.  For example in 2000 and 2004, Bush likely wouldn't have won had Ontario been a state.  In the case of Alberta in 2000 it could have tipped things in favour of Al Gore if it went for him, but that election was a razor thin win so pretty much any state could have tipped the results in Gore's favour. 

As for Canada moving to the right, I would argue no more so than the US and Europe are.  Both of those areas are more conservative than they were 30 years ago.  I would argue there are two primary reasons for this.  The main one is you have an aging population and generally older people are more conservative than younger ones.

The other is shifting demographics in terms of area.  Generally the poorer areas which tend to lean more left are losing people while the more affluent regions which tend to lean more to the right are growing.  In the case of Canada, that would be Quebec and Atlantic Canada losing, while the West gaining, for the US, the rust belt states losing and sun belt states gaining, in Britain population loss in the Industrial North while gaining in the South of England and in the case of Germany, loss in East Germany and the Northern areas while growing in Southern Germany. 

Even shift in city population is having an impact too.  Here in Toronto, the downtown which has always been more left leaning isn't really growing while the 905 suburbs which are more conservative is where all the growth is.  Off course the hard right areas in both countries are losing people in many cases as rural areas are generally declining in population.  I believe in 2004, Bush won 97 of the 100 fastest growing counties, whereas here in Canada, the fastest growing areas are either Conservative or at least competitive for them (905 suburbs, Central Ontario, Calgary, Edmonton, bedroom communities surrounding Calgary and Edmonton, Okanagan Valley, Fraser Valley, Surrey, Richmond, North Nanaimo-Comox area).  By contrast the areas with almost no growth or losing population are generally not conservative friendly areas (Rural Newfoundland, Cape Breton Island, Acadian Coast of New Brunswick, Northern Quebec, Northern Ontario, the Territories).

What if Canada was part of the United States?

Kerry wins if Canada is a whole is a state, but just barely. Ontario alone wouldn't do it, since Bush had a 35 EV margin over Kerry and Ontario would only have about 20EVs.
Logged

adma
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 522
View Profile
« Reply #572 on: April 30, 2012, 07:04:49 am »
Ignore

On paper, the "changing demographics favouring the right wing" argument makes sense.  But if we go according to US parameters, a lot of that fast-growth-burbia may be too cosmopolitan for present-day Republicans.  (And remember, too, that there's a common countervailing demographic factor: as the right-friendly outer 'burbs boom, the aging inner burbs swing away from the right.  Notwithstanding Harper's 905/416 inroads, Ford Nation, etc.)
Logged
mileslunn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 910
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #573 on: April 30, 2012, 04:08:20 pm »
Ignore

On paper, the "changing demographics favouring the right wing" argument makes sense.  But if we go according to US parameters, a lot of that fast-growth-burbia may be too cosmopolitan for present-day Republicans.  (And remember, too, that there's a common countervailing demographic factor: as the right-friendly outer 'burbs boom, the aging inner burbs swing away from the right.  Notwithstanding Harper's 905/416 inroads, Ford Nation, etc.)

I was more referring to moving to the centre-right.  Certainly those areas not hard right.  Here in Canada the 905 belt doesn't blindly go Tory, in fact provincially it went Liberal and it took a few elections before Harper won it, otherwise it is centre-right as opposed to the more left leaning Downtown, but certainly not hard right.  The same could be said about the Alberta election as Calgary which is fast growing is definitely a right leaning city, but the WRA was a little too far right for them much like the tea party and religious right are for some US city suburbs. 
Logged
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20585
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #574 on: April 30, 2012, 06:57:20 pm »
Ignore

My analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-provincial-election.html
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines