Alberta 2012

[LastVoter]

It'll be interesting to see how Mormons vote this time.

There is a significant(>1%) Mormon population to form a sample size in exit polls that won't have a huge margin of error in Alberta?

[LastVoter]

I wonder what would be the game plan for Liberals or Dippers in Alberta? They obviously can't rise above 30% even if the other party collapses. It seems to me at least Canada is somewhat swing able unlike a lot of US. Try to move to the center(closer to Tories) and attempt to assistance their character based on scandals/corruption/etc?

[LastVoter]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

[LastVoter]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

Does Calgary really vote that uniformly?

I think this link to Krago's poll-by-poll maps has been posted previously. Scroll down to Calgary. I believe there are some provincial ones out there, too.

Pretty anomalous.

[LastVoter]

Could the right-wing vote be split enough that NDP and Liberals actually have some power? Wildrose might actually move Alberta to the left!

[LastVoter]

Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.

Yea but that would lead to a lot of face palming by Albertans if they elect a more left-wing government on accident by voting WRP.  Also Edmonton is winnable by red/orange, so that is like 20% of total seats.

[LastVoter]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_1917
That's a lot of clicking(starting with 2008).

[LastVoter]

Online link? I wanna see if WRP are clowns like the tea party in America.

[LastVoter]

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.

Shouldn't it be more important for the left-wingers to attack each other so that they can consolidate the left-wing vote and hope for a minority conservative government where they can influence the legislation? Or would that only work for one term and would to WRP sweep next round since most Albertans probably hate both liberals and NDP.

[LastVoter]

My impressions: Redford sounds "smarter", but Smith sounds more personable. Brian Mason sounds solid, but the Raj guy sounds completely out of his depth.

Yea I like how Mason decided to attack Raj on how his plan requires him to get elected 3 times in Alberta(lol). Also interesting how Canadians try to talk over each other without raising their voice(unlike US debates where someone tries to talk over the other person they always raise their voice).

[LastVoter]

http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?act=view3&dsp=template&hl=e&pagetype=watch&watchID=1e


Redford has been on the defensive throughout. Smith/Sherman/Mason are attacking her, not each other.

So you are saying both NDP and Liberals have 8-12% floor and therefore have better chance of swinging Edmonton seats to them by attacking PC's instead of each other?
Shouldn't it be more important for the left-wingers to attack each other so that they can consolidate the left-wing vote and hope for a minority conservative government? Or would that only work for one term and would to WRP sweep next round since most Albertans probably hate both liberals and NDP.

See DL's post from earlier, he puts it better than I could.

[LastVoter]

Can the PC's try to suppress Wildrose turnout aka the last page of the Rethuglican playbook? Seems to me it's a part of Harper playbook(the phone calls). This should be some good fodder for PC's.

[LastVoter]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

[LastVoter]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

[LastVoter]

Do you really expect Calgary to be almost all WRP? I'd expect at least ~5 PC seats in there. I'd expect at least 15 PC seats, just from the Calgary and Edmonton burbs & city, just because of Liberal strategical voting and variance in similar ridings based on dumb things WRP candidates say.

This is part of the fun: Trying to figure out where the WRP wont win. All I can do is use uniform swings in most cases until someone says that there is a reason why a certain candidate will not win.

Well you could try to use demographic maps and past voting behavior to see where the bigger swings would happen. Also see which candidates made the news(positive or negative) and give them handicap/penalty swing. Like for example the person I posted earlier in this thread. I guess you will still be off by a lot since you can't asses what's happening on the local level that doesn't make the news.

I could, but that's very time consuming. Plus, most of Calgary is fairly demographically homogenous, so the only thing preventing most ridings from going WRP will be candidate strength. I'm going to let others let me know what's going on. That way, if I get something wrong, I can say "well, so and so said this" or "no one said anything"

Well you could at least change the prediction of total seats to be a bit more PC favorable since the random swings are likely to favor them, and say give a statistical 66% confidence interval instead of just counting up the seats as based on a uniform swing. I don't think Alberta will have a jihad with 70 extreme right-wingers getting elected. Even in 2010 in US, some southern states still voted democratic(Arkansas), and I don't think this is nearly as serious.
I'd put the 2(95% confidence) deviation number of Wildrose seats between 45-65.

[LastVoter]

This is getting interesting. Another 5 point surge of PC's in Calgary and 5 surge of NDP in Edmonton and it would be time to get the popcorn ready.

[LastVoter]

Not the most disappointing result(that would have been Wildrose majority), but the second most disappointing result.

[LastVoter]

If analogous with America, then it would have to be Utah just based on voting patterns with a central city that every once in a while doesn't vote Republican.

I may have to agree with you slightly there. I don't know why people compare Alberta to Texas anyway, other than oil and cattle they have NOTHING in common.

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Not entirely some of Houston's neighboorhoods that are mostly White like The Heights, Montrose, and Midtown vote Democratic.

I looked over Dave's map and there are maybe 10 precints which are majority white and democratic total in DFW, and maybe same in Houston. Austin is better in that regard obviously. Still need a few more years before the white city dwellers in Texas get accustomed to urban problems.