Democracy Corps - Congressional Battlegrounds

[krazen1211]

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/Dec-Battleground-FQ2.pdf

Congress
R: 47
D: 42

President
Obama: 47
Romney: 48

Obama: 46
Gingrich: 48


Basically they polled 60 competitive GOP held Congressional districts.


http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/December-Battleground-Survey-Graphs_website2.pdf

The 2012 Democracy Corps Congressional battleground research focuses
intensely on the Republican-Obama districts; 48 of our 60 districts were won by
Barack Obama in 2008 but claimed by Republicans in the 2010 midterm. 

[RogueBeaver]

Confirms what we already know, that the GOP keeps the House next year.

[oakvale]

Confirms what we already know, that the GOP keeps the House next year.

Yes, this single poll from a relatively unreliable outfit (IIRC) certainly confirms that...

(FWIW, I think the GOP almost certainly will keep the House, but don't count your chickens, etc. ).

[Sam Spade]

What's the popular vote total for 2008 in these districts, granted it skews severely to the Northeast and Midwest, but is probably useful.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Obama +5.2 according to finding the mean of the 2008 margins.

[krazen1211]

What's the popular vote total for 2008 in these districts, granted it skews severely to the Northeast and Midwest, but is probably useful.

Obama won the sample by 6 in 2008. GOP won the sample by 5 in 2010.

It's a Republican leaning set of districts; President Bush won around 48 of them in 2004 and barely lost the remaining 12.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Confirms what we already know, that the GOP keeps the House next year.

This confirms nothing.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

"Rural" districts are at D+4:
NH-2
NY-20
AR-1
MI-1
MN-8
OH-6
WI-7

[JohnnyLongtorso]

How can they poll "battleground districts" when some states still haven't drawn a map yet?

[krazen1211]

How can they poll "battleground districts" when some states still haven't drawn a map yet?

They polled the existing districts. Some of them won't be battlegrounds in 2012.

[memphis]

How can they poll "battleground districts" when some states still haven't drawn a map yet?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
It's all in the gerrymandering. FWIW, I see Congress "normalizing" toward results more similar to that of Presidential races. The days of Dan Boren and Lincoln Chafee are ending, which makes things very hard for the Dems with so many D+>25 seats.
I think the Senate Dems are going down in MT, ND, NE, and MO. WV and ME will stay weird and vote oppositely for President and Senate (and from each other). It could all come down to the Dems needing to pickup either MA or NV to keep the majority with a 50-50 split, which would make things very interesting. I'm pretty certain that's all they'll need because I'm confident of an Obama re-election.

[pbrower2a]

Confirms what we already know, that the GOP keeps the House next year.

Wrong. It shows that the GOP is in a position to lose a huge number of vulnerable seats. The Republicans won the swing seats in 2010 and once elected have done little to show that they are anything but rubber-stamp supporters of narrow special interests outside the districts in which they are elected.

Republicans can gain from Democrats only where they have successfully gerrymandered an incumbent into an unsuitable district.

This poll is about incumbent Republicans, most of whose districts are in the R+1 to R+5 range. If at all competent, incumbent Republicans should expect to win the vast majority of such districts.

Extremists lose, and the GOP has been going to the extreme.     

[CaDan]

Wrong. It shows that the GOP is in a position to lose a huge number of vulnerable seats. The Republicans won the swing seats in 2010 and once elected have done little to show that they are anything but rubber-stamp supporters of narrow special interests outside the districts in which they are elected.

Republicans can gain from Democrats only where they have successfully gerrymandered an incumbent into an unsuitable district.

This poll is about incumbent Republicans, most of whose districts are in the R+1 to R+5 range. If at all competent, incumbent Republicans should expect to win the vast majority of such districts.

Extremists lose, and the GOP has been going to the extreme.

Keep up the fantasies Paulie. I guess you need that fragile grasp on reality to make you sleep better at night.

Contrary to your rambling screed, the consensus is that due to redistricting things stand at either a -1 or +1. Granted, there are still some things that need to be settled in Texas, Florida, and New Jersey; but the GOP did a pretty good job with redistricting.

A large number of those swing districts are not swing districts anymore.

The maps the GOP constructed in Pennsylvania and North Carolina were nothing short of spectacular.

You fail.

[Badger]

Wrong. It shows that the GOP is in a position to lose a huge number of vulnerable seats. The Republicans won the swing seats in 2010 and once elected have done little to show that they are anything but rubber-stamp supporters of narrow special interests outside the districts in which they are elected.

Republicans can gain from Democrats only where they have successfully gerrymandered an incumbent into an unsuitable district.

This poll is about incumbent Republicans, most of whose districts are in the R+1 to R+5 range. If at all competent, incumbent Republicans should expect to win the vast majority of such districts.

Extremists lose, and the GOP has been going to the extreme.

Keep up the fantasies Paulie. I guess you need that fragile grasp on reality to make you sleep better at night.

Contrary to your rambling screed, the consensus is that due to redistricting things stand at either a -1 or +1. Granted, there are still some things that need to be settled in Texas, Florida, and New Jersey; but the GOP did a pretty good job with redistricting.

A large number of those swing districts are not swing districts anymore.

The maps the GOP constructed in Pennsylvania and North Carolina were nothing short of spectacular.

You fail.

Spectacular in smashing deomocratic choice by cracking and packing, yes. Not to say Democrats don't do it in Dem controlled states, but your gleeful celebration of a hideously uhackish undemocratic practice for partisan gain yet further cements--if that was somehow even possib le--your status as uber-HP.

You fail---life.