IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Ron Paul almost 1st

[RBH]

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Would it surprise me if some respondents just replied with their 2008 General Election vote there?

BTW, Paul wins Iowa = Romney wins the nomination.

[RBH]

How was the polling in Iowa in '08? I vaguely remember being surprised that Huckabee won, but maybe I just hadn't been paying all that much attention.

of the 20 polls released from Iowa from the period of Dec 13 to Caucus Day in 2008, Huckabee led in 15 polls and Romney led in 5 polls.

The last Selzer poll nailed everybody's percentage within 2% except for Thompson.

Ron Paul v. Mitt Romney is our equivalent to when the Republican primary came down to Bob Dole and Pat Buchanan in 1996.

[RBH]

Pat Buchanan got 29% in South Carolina and 23% in Iowa.

So, are we supposed to be stunned that Paul could top 20% in Iowa after campaigning there for 4 years?

But the field is Perry/Gingrich/Romney/Paul after IA and NH, and probably Gingrich/Romney/Paul in FL.

[RBH]

I think Paul's anti-Newt ads may be working. But Perry's "God Hates Fags" ads aren't

Rick Perry's problem isn't his message, it's his total lack of credibility.