NH PrimR: Insider Advantage: Ron Paul makes it a race !

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Insider Advantage on 2011-12-12

Summary:

Romney:	29%
Gingrich:	24%
Paul:	21%
Huntsman:	11%
Other:	9%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Paul is up 6 since the latest Insider NH poll ...

[RI]

Wow...what is going on?

[Mr. Morden]

Is it time yet for me to start mocking people with quotes like this?

I don't see how Romney could lose this ...

[Eraserhead]

... the hell?

[redcommander]

WTF I didn't think Paul had a chance of being the next flavor of the month. I could have sworn Santorum would have been next.

[ilikeverin]

WTF I didn't think Paul had a chance of being the next flavor of the month. I could have sworn Santorum would have been next.

Meeee too.  This is crazy.  What a race.

[memphis]

Huntsman is killing Mitt. Romney needs to thrash all the other candidates in NH. Won't happen with Huntsman getting 10%.

[Mehmentum]

So what happens if Paul wins Iowa and follows up with a win in New Hampshire.  This scenario has become increasingly plausible over the past 24 hours.

[Stranger in a strange land]

So what happens if Paul wins Iowa and follows up with a win in New Hampshire.  This scenario has become increasingly plausible over the past 24 hours.

The other candidates bring out the big guns. So far nobody has attacked Paul because he hasn't been seen as relevant and the media refuses to take him seriously, but if there's any sign he might get ahead, there will be an onslaught of attack ads about his stance on Israel, his statements about foreign policy, and some of the questionable statements about race he's made in the past.

[M]

So what happens if Paul wins Iowa and follows up with a win in New Hampshire.  This scenario has become increasingly plausible over the past 24 hours.

The other candidates bring out the big guns. So far nobody has attacked Paul because he hasn't been seen as relevant and the media refuses to take him seriously, but if there's any sign he might get ahead, there will be an onslaught of attack ads about his stance on Israel, his statements about foreign policy, and some of the questionable statements about race he's made in the past.

Right. In addition, if at all possible, the remaining electorate will rally behind someone else, presumably but not necessarily Romney or Gingrich.

If this proves impossible and it really becomes a three-way race, well, that's by far the most plausible way to get a late-entry candidate (Jeb or Giuliani, perhaps) and/or a brokered convention.

[Badger]

The question becomes: "Where does Paul go after NH?". Romney's strategy is to hope Paul wins IA while finishing at least a respectable 3rd himself, and hoping Paul doesn't gain enough bounce to top him in NH. That would blunt Gingrich's momentum, keep the anti-Mitt vote divided, and maybe allow finishing Gingrich in FL (or at least keep it close enough to stay viable and grind out a victory by attrition in a state-by-state nomination campaign, counting on Paul's syphoning effect and Gingrich's mouth to do much the work).

A couple other thoughts:

I wonder if Paul winning IA might actually scare some NH waiverers between Newt and Mitt, as well as Huntsmen supporters, into saying "Oh $%$t, PAUL??!?" and switch to Mitt to stop the RP express.

If Paul carries IA and NH, after a year of the race being about which candidate will arise as the anti-Romney, it'll quickly shift to which candidate--Gingrich or Romney--will arise to the status of the anti-Paul. The winner of that race wins the nomination. And considering it'll require actually winning a couple states, and the next contests after NH are SC and FL.....

Noting the paragraph above, I have yet to hear (and I'm not naming any names here) a genuinely non-hackish explanation for how Paul still has a realistic shot at the nomination after winning IA and NH. It'll give him momentum and force the media to treat him as a legitimate candidate, sure, but "momentum" does not mean a huge chunk of previously antipathetic GOP primary voters will suddenly awake to an epiphiny about the ReLOVEution.

[TheGlobalizer]

Badger, here goes:

After IA and NH wins, Paul has to be taken seriously.  Gingrich is on the outs due to the newfound public awareness of his legacy of depravity (a GOP issue) and poor performance in IA/NH (IA especially).  Romney failed to convert what was long considered to be a "favorite son"-ish primary state for him and starts to look unelectable and the flip-flopper meme returns.  Most other flavors have run their course, so few will take second or third looks, and the same issues that undermined their campaigns before will be resuscitated (Perry's "umm", "pray away the gay", etc.)  Paul's name recognition and consciousness of his campaign will grow nationally, with an attendent increase in national numbers (20%+?).  Rather than being the "guy who can't win", you'll start to see H2H numbers that show him in a statistical tie or, possibly, soundly beating Obama, leading to an increase in comfort with him as a solid anti-Obama candidate.

In that scenario, who could stop Paul?  Huntsman if he overperforms in NH (2nd place).  A traditional so-con if ALL talk radio personalities support them (Perry or Santorum are the most likely, IMO).  Least likely, a late entrance from a middle-of-the-road legit conservative like Ryan or Daniels.

I think it's far more likely that Paul, after NH and IA, would strike a deal with the mainline GOP to pack his cabinet and the VP spot with mainstream acceptable conservatives (and a few wacky libertarians).  Then they would rally behind him, tout his outsider cred, his socially conservative values, his consistent small government views, etc.  In such a scenario, the race could theoretically end after SC.  It would certainly piss off the hawks in the GOP, but most of Paul's other positions are not anathematic to the GOP, they're just extreme.

[Yelnoc]

Noting the paragraph above, I have yet to hear (and I'm not naming any names here) a genuinely non-hackish explanation for how Paul still has a realistic shot at the nomination after winning IA and NH. It'll give him momentum and force the media to treat him as a legitimate candidate, sure, but "momentum" does not mean a huge chunk of previously antipathetic GOP primary voters will suddenly awake to an epiphiny about the ReLOVEution.

I'm not a Ron Paul supporter, but let me give it a try.

Paul pulls an upset in Iowa.  Romney is way down on the list, finishing behind everybody but Huntsman.  In the pre-NH debates, Romney blows up; he's been campaigning for five years and people are stating to say he won't win.  The gaffe causes much of his support to filter to Huntsman, but not enough.  Paul pulls off another win in New Hampshire.

Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry all went directly to South Carolina after the Iowa caucus.  In the end, the race comes down to Gingrich and Perry.  Perry is able to capitalize on his southern folk charm and a few missteps by Gingrich to win the state.  Nobody is even talking about Romney, he again finishes far down ballot.  Paul does ok.  Bachmann and Santorum, despite each breaking 10%, bow out of the race.

Romney follows in Giuliani's footsteps, pouring vast sums of his personal fortune into the state.  It's to no avail; much of his supporters have moved on to Huntsman.  Perry is somewhat competitive due to his momentum, but Gingrich stuns everybody with clutch debate performances, and scrapes by a win in the state.  Romney drops out in shame.

The rest of the month is Paul's time to shine.  As the "caucus candidate" he has a legitimate shot at winning Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, and Colorado.  The non-binding Missouri Primary might also go for him; one thing is for sure, it will not go for Gingrich.  Going in the February 28 primaries, the race is between Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, and Perry.  Still very open.

Let's say that the media covers Paul's caucus victories.  Michigan seems likely to go to Huntsman in the absence of Romney.  Arizona is a wild card.  But perhaps vote splitting between Perry and Gingrich would allow Paul to win the state.  After all, the state is quite libertarian; issues like drugs and immigration matter there.  Then of there is the Washington Caucus, which of course Paul could win.

Now we are at Super Tuesday.  Gingrich has not won a state in over a month, additionally, he has no campaign organization and is in the red as far as funding goes.  Perry and Huntsman are probably doing alright as far as funding goes, benefiting from an earlier war chest in Perry's case and new "establishment" donors in Huntsman's case.  Paul has his million dollar money bombs, which can keep him competitive.  But, he is likely under a huge amount of flak as conservatives and establishment types alike realize that he is a real threat.

These are the Super Tuesday primaries: GA, MA, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA, ID, and ND.  Some mountain west states where Paul should be competitive, some southern states that will be fought between Perry and Gingrich, and some northern ones which, I imagine, Huntsman will take.  As I type this, I do not see how a brokered convention can be avoided.  And we all know Paul has the least chance of coming out of a brokered convention as the candidate.  Perhaps if Perry implodes at this stage, allowing Paul to win Texas, he could attain the necessary majority.  It's a shaky path, but it is there.

[Mehmentum]

Noting the paragraph above, I have yet to hear (and I'm not naming any names here) a genuinely non-hackish explanation for how Paul still has a realistic shot at the nomination after winning IA and NH. It'll give him momentum and force the media to treat him as a legitimate candidate, sure, but "momentum" does not mean a huge chunk of previously antipathetic GOP primary voters will suddenly awake to an epiphiny about the ReLOVEution.

I'm not a Ron Paul supporter, but let me give it a try.

Paul pulls an upset in Iowa.  Romney is way down on the list, finishing behind everybody but Huntsman.  In the pre-NH debates, Romney blows up; he's been campaigning for five years and people are stating to say he won't win.  The gaffe causes much of his support to filter to Huntsman, but not enough.  Paul pulls off another win in New Hampshire.

Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum, and Perry all went directly to South Carolina after the Iowa caucus.  In the end, the race comes down to Gingrich and Perry.  Perry is able to capitalize on his southern folk charm and a few missteps by Gingrich to win the state.  Nobody is even talking about Romney, he again finishes far down ballot.  Paul does ok.  Bachmann and Santorum, despite each breaking 10%, bow out of the race.

Romney follows in Giuliani's footsteps, pouring vast sums of his personal fortune into the state.  It's to no avail; much of his supporters have moved on to Huntsman.  Perry is somewhat competitive due to his momentum, but Gingrich stuns everybody with clutch debate performances, and scrapes by a win in the state.  Romney drops out in shame.

The rest of the month is Paul's time to shine.  As the "caucus candidate" he has a legitimate shot at winning Nevada, Maine, Minnesota, and Colorado.  The non-binding Missouri Primary might also go for him; one thing is for sure, it will not go for Gingrich.  Going in the February 28 primaries, the race is between Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, and Perry.  Still very open.

Let's say that the media covers Pau's caucus victories.  Michigan seems likely to go to Huntsman in the absence of Romney.  Arizona is a wild card.  But perhaps vote splitting between Perry and Gingrich would allow Paul to win the state.  After all, the state is quite libertarian; issues like drugs and immigration matter there.  Then of there is the Washington Caucus, which of course Paul could win.

Now we are at Super Tuesday.  Gingrich has not won a state in over a month, additionally, he has no campaign organization and is in the red as far as funding goes.  Perry and Huntsman are probably doing alright as far as funding goes, benefiting from an earlier war chest in Perry's case and new "establishment" donors in Huntsman's case.  Paul has his million dollar money bombs, which can keep him competitive.  But, he is likely under a huge amount of flak as conservatives and establishment types alike realize that he is a real threat.

These are the Super Tuesday primaries: GA, MA, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA, ID, and ND.  Some mountain west states where Paul should be competitive, some southern states that will be fought between Perry and Gingrich, and some northern ones which, I imagine, Huntsman will take.  As I type this, I do not see how a brokered convention can be avoided.  And we all know Paul has the least chance of coming out of a brokered convention as the candidate.  Perhaps if Perry implodes at this stage, allowing Paul to win Texas, he could attain the necessary majority.  It's a shaky path, but it is there.

I really, really, hope this happens. 

[Badger]

Thanks for the response guys!

Interesting scenarios, but I'm not sure I buy them. Neither Romney nor Gingrich, let alone the entire GOP establishment, is going to hand the keys to Paul after NH. If Paul wins both IA and NH, that's when the real race to the nomination starts; all Paul earns with those initial victories is pole position. I also don't see a multi-second tier candidate race coming around. Bachmann and Santorum are gone after IA (or reduced to an irrelevent quioxtic campign like post-Super Tuesday Paul in 08). Perry likely is too unless he can place at least 3rd AND ahead of Gingrich in IA to stay in until SC hoping against hope Gingrich proceeds to utterly crash and burn, so that voters will somehow return to him as the conservative not-Paul alternative to Romney. Likelihood: slim to nil, not much better if he manages 3rd in IA. He needs to place second in IA, or at least ahead of Newt to seriously revive his candidacy. Good luck there.

Huntsman needs to BEAT Romney in NH to become a viable national candidate. It's not enough to get some media attention from placing well, he needs to mortally wound Mitt to bleed his support. Even finishing second to Paul MIGHT do this. So, what's the chance Huntsman beats Romney, AND Newt AND Paul in NH, or that Romney places 3rd there? Good luck.

Short of an astonomical collapse to rival Cain, Newt is in until at least SC. Unless Newt finishes behind Perry  in Ia, he'll remain the not-Paul Romney alternative in the Palemeto State.

[King]

Paul, like Romney, has a ceiling that is below 50%. Neither can win baring a split field.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Paul, like Romney, has a ceiling that is below 50%. Neither can win baring a split field.

The thing is, though, that the field is split right now. After IA, several of the previous anti-Romneys will give Newt a boost, however, and if Huntsman gains in NH, he could possibly take some from Mitt. I still think Mitt will come out on top, though.

[Averroës Nix]

Paul, like Romney, has a ceiling that is below 50%. Neither can win baring a split field.

I don't buy the notion that Romney has that low a ceiling. There's no reason to believe that a majority of Republicans would be unwilling to support him as the nominee.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Paul, like Romney, has a ceiling that is below 50%. Neither can win baring a split field.

I don't buy the notion that Romney has that low a ceiling. There's no reason to believe that a majority of Republicans would be unwilling to support him as the nominee.

I'd imagine that Romney's numbers are worse now:

[Averroës Nix]

Paul, like Romney, has a ceiling that is below 50%. Neither can win baring a split field.

I don't buy the notion that Romney has that low a ceiling. There's no reason to believe that a majority of Republicans would be unwilling to support him as the nominee.

I'd imagine that Romney's numbers are worse now:

That's a good number for Romney. It's the second highest in the field. He's one of only two candidates whom a majority of Republicans currently deem acceptable, and the other guy is Newt Gingrich.

I'd interpret this poll with caution (there's no historical data for comparison), but this number doesn't seem like it should be worrying to Romney.