Paradigm Shift

[Nagas]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 1998 - GINGRICH TO VIE FOR 3^rd TERM AS SPEAKER

Washington D.C. 11.05.98 - Despite criticism from his own party and calls to step down as Speaker of the House when Congress reconvenes with a shrunken Republican majority in January, Speaker Gingrich has announced that he will once again vie for another term. In his victory speech after his reelection to his 11^th term to the House, he made his case to the voters and his fellow Republicans for another term as Speaker.

"In just four short years, my colleagues and I have reigned in the federal deficit, slashed capital gains to the benefit small businesses, and reconstructed a broken welfare system. Under my leadership we were able to pass the Contract with America, the most successful series of bills in our country's history to not only better our country but restore trust in our government. President Clinton only has two years remaining and we need a strong Congressional leadership to keep him in check and prevent a return to the wasteful government spending of the past. I have kept President Clinton in check for the past four years and I intend to keep him in check for his last two.

Many pundits believe that Majority Whip Tom Delay (R-TX) will challenge Gingrich for the position of Speaker. His office has declined to comment.

Friday, November 6th, 1998 -- Baesler Certified Winner Over Bunning

49.82%            49.43%

Frankfort, KT 11.06.98- With the remaining ballots coming in from Fayette, Floyd, and Pike counties, Rep Scotty Baesler has eeked out a win over Rep Jim Bunning. President Clinton  campaigned throughout Eastern Kentucky with Baesler in the final days of the campaign. Vice President Gore stopped by in Frankfort and Lexington, denouncing Bunning as "an active supporter of Speaker Gingrich's agenda to undermine government programs such as medicare and social security."

Baesler wins by a margin of a little over 4,000 votes, out of over 1.1 million votes cast. Charles R. Arbegust is believed to have had a minimal effect on the outcome, with polls determining he took votes equally from both candidates. Bunning has announced that he will not contest the results.

Baesler's victory is the last to be called and concludes the 1998 Midterms. Republicans hold a 54-46 advantage in the Senate and a 223 seats to the Democrats' 211 in the House. The Democrats were able to net one seat in the Senate and five in the House, breaking historical trends where the President's party loses seats in his second midterm.

[ChairmanSanchez]

I like the format

[Senator Snowstalker]

Interesting way to start.

[CathKhan]

Interesting way to start.

[Nagas]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19, 1998 - HOUSE NARROWLY IMPEACHES CLINTON

Washington D.C - Speaker Gingrich led House Republicans in impeaching President Clinton on the grounds of prejury to a grand jury (228-206) and on an obstruction of justice (221-212). The accusation of prejury in the Paula Jones case and the charge that Clinton abused his power were both soundly defeated by a bipartisan vote in the house. The proceedings will go to the Senate, where a two-thirds majority will be required to impeach the President. Republicans will have to bring over a dozen Democrats on board to remove the President from office.



Minority Leader Dick Gephardt denounced the impeachment proceedings, bringing up Speaker Gingrich’s recently uncovered affair and other infidelities of his Republican colleagues.

”This impeachment is a partisan effort to remove the president that is lightly disguised as “justice.” Congressional Republicans claim to be a party of “family and traditional” values but they do not practice what they preach. Speaker Gingrich and Representative Livingston have both recently admitted to affairs during these proceedings. Representatives Burton, Chenoweth, and Hyde are all just as guilty of marriage infidelity, and it seems that their affairs have not compromised their ability to charge Clinton for the same acts they themselves have committed. This is hypocrisy and politics at its finest.”

Despite the impeachment, President Clinton still polls strongly across the nation.

Do you approve of President Clinton? (Gallup Dec 17-19)
Approve: 61%
Disapprove: 37%
Not Sure: 2%

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29, 1998 - MAJORITY WHIP TOM DELAY TO RUN FOR SPEAKER


Washington D.C - Representative Tom Delay (R-TX) announced at a press conference earlier today that he will run to be the next Speaker of the House in an attempt to replace incumbent Speaker Gingrich. Speaker Gingrich has announced his intention to seek another term, creating a potential conflict when Congress reconvenes on the 3rd.

”The results of the midterm election tell me that the American people have given us a warning but still expect us to keep President Clinton’s agenda in check. While we attempt to clean out the executive branch we must also keep Congress clean as well. Speaker Gingrich’s hypocrisy and ethical dilemmas are not what we need in the House. We must have honest and ethical leadership in the House. With the backing of the Republican Leadership Council and urging by my colleagues in the House, I have decided to seek the speakership when we reconvene.

[Nagas]

MONDAY, JANUARY 4, 1999 - UPSET IN ELECTION FOR SPEAKER

Washington D.C. - Congress reconvened today and moved to elect the next Speaker of the House of Representatives. Neither Speaker Gingrich (R-GA) nor Majority Whip Tom Delay (R-TX) backed down heading into the vote. Democrats once again nominated Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-MO) for the speaker position. Republicans expected Gingrich to eventually concede to DeLay and allow the Republicans to coalesce around him, but that is not what happened here today.

In a stunning upset, eight Congressional Republicans broke rank with the party, choosing neither Delay or Gingrich, but opting for Representative Gephardt instead. Representatives Mike Castle (R-DL), Nancy Johnson (R-CT), Connie Morella (R-MD) Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY), Amo Houghton (R-NY), John McHugh (R-NY),Phil English (R-PA), and Ralph Regula (R-OH) joined together with a unanimous Democratic Caucus to push Gephardt over the top with 219 votes. Representative Castle was joined at a press conference with his fellow defectors shortly after the vote:

“The current behavior from our party has been atrocious. The impeachment and the struggle over who should be speaker only serves to weaken our Congress and our country. We need someone that can lead effectively and moderately, and that man is Dick Gephardt.”

NRCC chairman Thomas Davis (R-VA) announced there would be “severe repercussions” for the the eight defectors come 2000.


Dick Gephardt, 59th Speaker of the House of Representatives

For the first time in over 80 years, the Speaker is not a member of the majority party. Democrats now have better control over what reaches the President's desk. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) is expected to become the new face of the Republican Party with the loss of the Speakership.

[JulioMadrid]

This is great =D

[CathKhan]

Looks good.

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

This is great =D

[Nagas]

THURSDAY, JANUARY 7, 1999 - THE 2000 RACE BEGINS: FORBES, MCCAIN, AND WELLSTONE ANNOUNCE BIDS

New York City 01.07.99 - The race for President begins almost 22 months ahead of election day for both parties, with several candidates announcing their intentions to run. Business magnate Steve Forbes (R-NY) was the first to announce today. Forbes was a candidate in the 1996 primaries, winning few states. In his announcement he declared that if President, he would enact a nationwide flat tax, claiming it will boost economic growth and increase economic prosperity.

A few hours later in Phoenix, Arizona, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) announced his bid. McCain described himself as a “moderate reformer,” promising to enact campaign finance reform if elected president and to maintain the current budget surplus. John McCain is a Vietnam war veteran and has served in the Senate since 1986, when he won the seat of the retiring Barry Goldwater. He has been difficult to label, frequently defying party leaders and staking moderate positions in the Senate. His moderate voting patterns have led some to label him as the “maverick senator.”

As expected, Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) announced his run for the presidency after former Senator Bill Bradley (D-NJ) declined to run for the nomination. In his announcement, Senator Wellstone said as President, he would bring “more healthcare, more peace, and more for the environment.” Like Senator McCain, Wellstone has promised to reform campaign financing if elected. While Vice President Gore has not yet made a formal declaration for the presidency, he is expected to announce his bid within the coming months. Wellstone is expected to run as a liberal alternative to Gore and is anticipating a tough fight with the Vice President.

Other Republicans are expected to announce and several draft movements have begun, namely for General Colin Powell and for Texas Governor George W. Bush, son of former President George H.W. Bush.

[ChairmanSanchez]

Awesome update! I suppose Wellstone will have a uphill climb against Gore, unless others enter. Maybe Speaker Gephardt and Evan Bayh could make a bid.

[Nagas]

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1999 - SENATE ACQUITS CLINTON OF CHARGES

Washington D.C. 02.19.99 - After a month of hearings and deliberations, the Senate met today to vote on the articles of impeachment. The charge of prejury was defeated 44 votes of guilty and 56 votes of not guilty, where 46 Democrats were joined by 10 Republicans, falling far short of the 67 votes needed to remove Clinton from office. The charge of obstruction of justice was defeated with 49 guilty votes again 51 not guilty votes, with five Republicans joining Democrats in defending the President.

Democrats and moderate Republicans hailed it as a victory and the President still remains incredibly popular:

Gallup Polling (Feb 15-17): Do you approve of the job President Bill Clinton is doing?
Yes: 64%
No: 34%
Not Sure/No Opinion: 2%

Fundraising Totals for January 1999:

[Nagas]

Awesome update! I suppose Wellstone will have a uphill climb against Gore, unless others enter. Maybe Speaker Gephardt and Evan Bayh could make a bid.

I plan to have another Democrat enter the field (ideally to the right of Gore) and am still working out the dynamics of the Republican nomination. Other than Bush, who were the conservative/establishment Republicans of 2000?

[GPORTER]

One thing I don't understand about politics. How could a democrat become speaker with the republicans having a majority in the house at the same time? Just explain that process

[Senator Snowstalker]

One thing I don't understand about politics. How could a democrat become speaker with the republicans having a majority in the house at the same time? Just explain that process

At the beginning of every Congress, the House votes on a Speaker. Parties tend to agree to all vote for one of theirs to be Speaker, so usually someone from the majority party wins. In this case, a few Republicans voted for Gephardt in protest, which gave him a majority and made him Speaker.

[ChairmanSanchez]

Awesome update! I suppose Wellstone will have a uphill climb against Gore, unless others enter. Maybe Speaker Gephardt and Evan Bayh could make a bid.

I plan to have another Democrat enter the field (ideally to the right of Gore) and am still working out the dynamics of the Republican nomination. Other than Bush, who were the conservative/establishment Republicans of 2000?

Lamar Alexander, William Bennett, Carol Campbell, Tommy Thompson, and Newt Gingrich could be possible contenders.

[Nagas]

THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 1999 - FINANCIAL SERVICES ACT UNVEILED IN SENATE, FACES SIGNIFICANT HURTLES IN HOUSE AND WHITE HOUSE

Rep John Dingell (D-MI) meeting with Pres. Clinton on the Act

Washington D.C. 03.18.99 - After weeks of drafting in the Republican Senate, Senators Phil Gram (R-TX) and majority leader Trent Lott (R-MS) unveiled an article legislation known as the Financial Services Act. The act would repeal the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, which has serviced as the center piece of banking and finance regulation for over fifty years.

The banking lobby has been pushing legislators for over a decade to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act in its entirely, declaring that it has stifled the growth of business in the banking sector and has led to an inefficient financial market. The financial lobby became incredibly energized when the Federal Reserve denied a waiver to the merger of Citigroup and the Travelers group, citing that it was “a conflict of interest under Glass-Steagall.”Republican leaders have praised the proposed legislation, stating that it will spur firms in times of slow and booming economic growth by allowing firms to consolidate and reduce the transaction costs of the market.

Democrats in the House have been more vocal in opposition to the bill. Rep John Dingell denounced the bill in a press conference before meeting with President Clinton:

“The passage of this bill will bring negative long-term repercussions to our financial markets and the economy as a whole. Passing this bill will remove the regulatory safeguards that we put in place to prevent  the severity of economic downturns that was prevalent in the panics of the 1800’s and the Great Depression. The consolidation of the different financial firms will violate the trust laws we have built up in the past century, and will result in firms that quite simply, will be too big to fail. These firms will have to be bailed out by the federal government at the expense of the taxpayer to prevent their collapse in an economic downturn and the resulting financial contagion that will sweep the markets. I will meet with President Clinton, Speaker Gephardt, and Vice President Gore in an effort to prevent this bill from ever passing. We cannot afford to return to the failed policies of the past.”

FRIDAY, MARCH 19, 1999 - FINANCIAL SERVICES ACT PASSES SENATE

Washington D.C. 03.19.99 - The Financial Services Act successfully passed the Senate today by a 54 - 45 margin, with Senator Fitzgerald (R-IL) abstaining. All Republicans, Independent James Jeffords (I-VT) and Democratic Senator Ernest Hollings (D-SC) voted in favor of the bill. All other Democratic senators voted “nay,” decrying the legislation as going too far in deregulation and running significant long-term risk to the United States Economy.

Speaker Gephardt denouncing the bill

The Republican victory in the Senate was short lived, however. Speaker Gephardt quickly stepped up to the podium, declaring that he will refuse to let the bill reach the floor of the House. President Clinton has declined to comment.

"The potential negative repercussions of this bill far outweigh any benefits it could potentially provide. We cannot gamble our entire economy on consolidated firms that could become too big to fail. We must maintain an atmosphere of competition in the financial sector that will maximize benefits to the consumer and minimize the impact of a financial institution going under. So long as I am Speaker, this bill will not reach the floor." - Speaker Gephardt (D-MO)

[CathKhan]

Dingell seems to be a prophet almost.

[Nagas]

Dingell seems to be a prophet almost.

He actually was quoted on saying banks would become "too big to fail."

[MRX]

Now what?

[ChairmanSanchez]

Exciting for the next update

[Jerseyrules]

Exciting for the next update

[ChairmanSanchez]

Exciting for the next update

Well, I meant "excited", but you all get the point

[Nagas]

The reason I've had such a delay is that I've been unsure if I wanted to include some of the major foreign policy events under Clinton. For the sake of speed and so I can quickly get to 2000 and beyond (plan to have this TL go from 1998-2013), all events (unless stated otherwise) in terms of foreign policy still occur. The Kosovo War still occurs and is a great success for NATO and the United States.

[Nagas]

TUESDAY, MAY 18, 1999 - VICE PRESIDENT GORE ANNOUNCES BID

President Clinton appeared with Vice President Gore at a rally in Carthage, Tennessee

05.18.99 CARTHAGE, TENNESSEE - After months of speculation, Vice President Al Gore has announced his bid for the Democratic nomination to run for President of the United States. The Vice President outlined his agenda calling for more stringent environmental regulations, ratification of the Kyoto protocol, and investing part of the budget surplus into social security and Medicare.

To the surprise of many pundits, President Clinton appeared on stage with the Vice President. Many were expecting Al Gore to distance himself after the recent Monica Lewinsky scandal, but it appears that the Vice President plans to have the popular President campaign with him. Al Gore highlighted the economic and foreign policy successes of the past eight years, and proclaimed that America was about to have four more.


Democratic Polls (May 14-18, 1999):

Who do you support for the Democratic Nomination?
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) - 53%
Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) - 35%
Undecided/Other - 12%

If the Iowa Caucus were held today, who would you vote for?
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) - 49%
Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) - 41%
Undecided/Other - 10%

If the New Hampshire Primary were held today, who would you vote for?
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) - 47%
Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN) - 42%
Undecided/Other - 11%

Despite the President’s and Vice President’s popularity, Senator Wellstone is polling at a respectable second to Vice President Gore on a fairly liberal platform. The Senator seems to be benefiting from a Home State halo effect in Iowa, only eight points behind while 18 behind nationally. New Hampshire is also very receptive to the liberal Senator. It did deliver for Senator Tsongas in 1992 against then Governor Bill Clinton. However outside of early states, Vice President Gore is enjoying wide leads.