Canada 1979: Trudeau v. Mulroney

[RogueBeaver]

Let's say Mulroney runs a better campaign in '76 and wins the PC leadership. Later that year an Atlantic MP vacates his seat (Wagner and LaSalle were the only Quebec PC MPs, and neither would vacate their seat) and Mulroney wins the by-election.

Since Mulroney almost certainly wins a comfortable majority (Clark was only 6 short IRL) by picking up Quebec seats, how does his premiership differ from RL's? Trudeau will resign immediately with a clean loss and there's a large Liberal field. Not necessarily Turner but perhaps Donald MacDonald, Iona Campagnolo, Jean Chretien... has to be an Anglo for alternation reasons.

[DC Al Fine]

Well for one, Trudeau wouldn't have changed his mind about retiring. Another few names to throw out there for Liberal leader:
1) Jean Chretien
2) Lloyd Axworthy
3) Allan MacEachen (maybe)

Mulroney would either be a 1-termer or 3 termer in my mind. If Chretien were Liberal leader, the losses in English Canada wouldn't be offset by Quebec pickups, so I can see Mulroney as yet another 1-majority Tory. Otherwise, I say he ekes out a win in the mid 80's and then get's another win around the same time as the free trade election.

Another possible consequence would be that without the NEP, western alienation doesn't have quite the same base, so the PC's don't lose quite so badly, and Reform doesn't fare quite so well when the PC government goes down.

[RogueBeaver]

Not only no NEP but Pierre Trudeau goes down in history as a mediocre-at-best PM. So much promise, so little accomplished. (Which is how his premature political obits read at the time) No 1982 Constitution or Charter either. Mulroney was interested in the constitutional file so he might try something once a PLQ government is in place.

Liberal leadership: Crowded field but I'd say it would be an Anglo simply because the alternation tradition is so strong. MacEachen, Turner or Macdonald. The latter 2 mean a rightward turn, MacEachen means the Liberals will continue their minority strategy of NDP-lite.

Referendum: Mulroney would do the job well. He knows the key players on both sides and is close with Ryan, which eliminates the federal-provincial tension that existed because of PET-Ryan's ancient blood feud.

[DC Al Fine]

Somehow I don't see the CBC portraying Mulroney as "the great statesman", but it would be interesting to see who the left would lionize in Trudeau's absence.

I just thought of a long ranging consequence. Mediocre PM Trudeau means Justin is not thought of as a saviour like he is now. Liberals have zero chance at comeback instead of the poor shot they have now.

[RogueBeaver]

They'd probably lionize Pearson.