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Author Topic: US with Canadian parties  (Read 11569 times)
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« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2011, 12:00:00 pm »
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1984 would be a landslide- the Tories would win everything except DC. What was true in the US (save MN) was true in Canada, where Mulroney won every province and Terr.

Winning 10 provinces out of 10 is not the same as winning 50 States of 50. Wink I might have overestimated the NDP a bit, but I think it's fair to assume each party would have retained its main strongholds.
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« Reply #51 on: December 17, 2011, 01:34:04 pm »
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Here's 1993



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« Reply #52 on: December 17, 2011, 02:50:39 pm »
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I really think Vermont would be an NDP strong hold these days. It seems comfortable with having a Socialist US Senator, and remember the NDP would have to be even more moderate if we are using the same popular vote totals.
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« Reply #53 on: December 17, 2011, 03:14:31 pm »
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I really think Vermont would be an NDP strong hold these days. It seems comfortable with having a Socialist US Senator, and remember the NDP would have to be even more moderate if we are using the same popular vote totals.

Yeah, maybe. Would have been a PC stronghold until 1993, for sure. The problem is that there aren't many Vermonts in Canada except maybe BC Southern Interior, where the NDP voting is much deeper than just "rural hippies" and is fairly class/ethnic based. BGOS/Dufferin-Caledon has some rural hippie areas like we pointed out in the Ontario 2011 thread, but they seem Green or Liberal.
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« Reply #54 on: December 17, 2011, 03:26:03 pm »
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I really think Vermont would be an NDP strong hold these days. It seems comfortable with having a Socialist US Senator, and remember the NDP would have to be even more moderate if we are using the same popular vote totals.

Yeah, maybe. Would have been a PC stronghold until 1993, for sure. The problem is that there aren't many Vermonts in Canada except maybe BC Southern Interior, where the NDP voting is much deeper than just "rural hippies" and is fairly class/ethnic based. BGOS/Dufferin-Caledon has some rural hippie areas like we pointed out in the Ontario 2011 thread, but they seem Green or Liberal.

That part of Ontario would never vote for Bernie Sanders though.
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« Reply #55 on: December 19, 2011, 03:39:24 pm »
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All right, let's start.

California

The inland far north would be pretty solidly Conservative, while the coast north of Sonoma County would be generally Liberal, although the NDP would have strength in places like Arcata and Mendocino. Further south, the Bay Area would lean NDP. Rich suburbs like in Marin and the South Bay would usually vote Liberal, but those would fall to the NDP in 2011. San Francisco would be safe NDP, falling only in 1993. Oakland would stay NDP even in that election. There might be areas that were once pockets of PC strength, but those would be gone after Diefenbaker. Santa Cruz would be NDP, while Monterey and Salinas would swing between the NDP and the Liberals. In the Central Valley, Sacramento, Stockton and Fresno would be Liberal, although the NDP would pose a major threat in 2011. With increasing suburbanization coupled with existing political trends, the Sierra foothills (El Dorado and Placer counties in particular) would have gone from solidly Liberal in 1993 to very safe Conservative in 2011.

In the southern San Joaquin Valley, Bakersfield and Kern County would be very Conservative; Reform would have won here handily. San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara would lean Liberal, but in 2011 the Grits would lose all but the major coastal cities of the area. The Southern California metropolitan area would be the Liberal heartland; aside from a few NDP areas in inner Los Angeles and scattered Tory strength in parts of Orange County and San Diego, it would be a sea of red. The real Liberal problem in 2011 would be the loss of this area; much like in Toronto, the Grits would be squeezed on two sides, with the NDP making huge gains in Los Angeles County and the Tories picking up seats in San Diego, Orange County, the Inland Empire (heretofore comfortably Liberal), and the San Gabriel foothills. To the east, Imperial County would be won by the Liberals every time.

Provincially, politics would be based on geography as much as ideology. There would be a prominent sectional divide in politics thanks to issues like water. In Northern California, the NDP would win almost everywhere, and the NDP leadership would be composed almost exclusively of northerners. The center-right Liberal party would be predominant in Southern California (although not to the extent that the NDP would hold sway in the north). A rump PC party would hold a handful of rural inland seats, but would be a non-factor most everywhere else.
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« Reply #56 on: December 19, 2011, 05:25:21 pm »
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So, California = BC?

I like how you've followed the Canadian provincial tradition of giving California's "provincial" parties different strengths. I wonder if any states will have parties like the Saskatchewan Party. Maybe in the south?
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« Reply #57 on: December 19, 2011, 06:59:43 pm »
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So, California = BC?

In a lot of ways, yeah. The biggest difference might be that California has two major metropolitan areas and British Columbia only has one. There's some Ontario involved, too; Los Angeles in particular I treated a lot like Toronto.

I like how you've followed the Canadian provincial tradition of giving California's "provincial" parties different strengths. I wonder if any states will have parties like the Saskatchewan Party. Maybe in the south?

One of the most interesting things about Canada is that there's a multi-party system federally but almost every province has a two-party system. It's fun to try to translate that to a different context.

The Saskatchewan Party is basically Tories with a funny name; while it's conceivable that something like that could happen in the United States, I'm not sure it's feasible to prognosticate where it would occur. We'll see if it comes up.
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« Reply #58 on: December 19, 2011, 07:53:49 pm »
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Ahh, LA. One has to ask how Hispanics vote in Canada.  Can't say for sure, as there aren't very many of them. If they're immigrants from Latin countries, they might vote NDP or Cons like in the old country, but who knows how American Latinos would vote in Canada.

I can only think of 2 Hispanic MPs from the past. One was a Liberal (Pablo Rodriguez), one was an NDPer (John Rodriguez).
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« Reply #59 on: December 19, 2011, 08:34:39 pm »
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There was also a very right-wing Tory from Quebec back in the '80s; his name escapes me now.

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« Reply #60 on: December 19, 2011, 09:02:34 pm »
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So will the South, with its insistence on states' rights, have a separatist party like Quebec, or more "the South wants in", like Reform out West?
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« Reply #61 on: December 19, 2011, 10:10:04 pm »
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In Toronto Latin Americans are traditionally the most NDP ethnic minority. In the 2001 census the two largest Latin American national groups in the country were Salvadorans, who mostly came in the 1980's fleeing D'Aubuisson, followed by Chileans, who mostly came in the 1970's fleeing Pinochet. They are not, to put it mildly, fans of Reagan.

In Montreal they were presumably Liberal pre-2011 just since that was the only game in town. But notice the bio of the new MP for Honoré Mercier.

Recently there has been a surge of Mexican immigration, so in the 2006 census Mexico had surpassed both to take top spot, with the largest group by far arriving 2001-2006. I would suspect they probably mostly aren't voting for anyone.
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« Reply #62 on: December 19, 2011, 10:49:41 pm »
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Oh, I knew there was an Hispanic MP in Quebec, but I forgot...

Also, the Portuguese are heavily NDP in Toronto now, I think.
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« Reply #63 on: December 21, 2011, 02:23:00 am »
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So will the South, with its insistence on states' rights, have a separatist party like Quebec, or more "the South wants in", like Reform out West?

The latter, I would say. There's no place in America as different as Quebec, and the South's grievances have a lot in common with Western Canada's, although the Western United States is that way as well. I think you would see Texas as the heart of the Reform Party base, being both Southern and Western. Dallas would be similar to Calgary in terms of importance to the conservative movement.
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« Reply #64 on: December 21, 2011, 02:31:22 am »
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So will the South, with its insistence on states' rights, have a separatist party like Quebec, or more "the South wants in", like Reform out West?

The latter, I would say. There's no place in America as different as Quebec, and the South's grievances have a lot in common with Western Canada's, although the Western United States is that way as well. I think you would see Texas as the heart of the Reform Party base, being both Southern and Western. Dallas would be similar to Calgary in terms of importance to the conservative movement.

I can see Texas, with oil and cattle, as being similar to Alberta, although the Hispanic border area is probably unparalleled in Canadian politics?
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« Reply #65 on: December 21, 2011, 03:17:44 am »
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So will the South, with its insistence on states' rights, have a separatist party like Quebec, or more "the South wants in", like Reform out West?

The latter, I would say. There's no place in America as different as Quebec, and the South's grievances have a lot in common with Western Canada's, although the Western United States is that way as well. I think you would see Texas as the heart of the Reform Party base, being both Southern and Western. Dallas would be similar to Calgary in terms of importance to the conservative movement.

I can see Texas, with oil and cattle, as being similar to Alberta, although the Hispanic border area is probably unparalleled in Canadian politics?

Certainly it's not an exact comparison; Texas is bigger than Alberta, and it has things that Alberta doesn't (the sizable Hispanic population being most important). But that's what makes this exercise fun, doesn't it?
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« Reply #66 on: December 21, 2011, 05:13:45 am »
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Massachusetts

The Boston metropolitan area would be a mix of Liberal and NDP enclaves. Downtown, the North End, Beacon Hill, Back Bay, and Allston-Brighton would lean NDP, the rest of the city of Boston would be strongly Liberal, and the inner ring of suburbs would be vaguely split with NDP areas of strength in the north and west and Liberal areas in the south and southeast (the split, if geographically distinguishable, would likely be between Newton/Wellesley and Needham). The Boston exurbs would be mostly Liberal with some Tory parts, primarily, I think, in Plymouth and Norfolk Counties; in 2011 large parts may have gone NDP but the Liberals would hold up better in Greater Boston than they did in Greater Toronto overall. The main Tory areas, if any, would be in Worcester County (outside the city of Worcester and its immediate surrounding area, which I think would be Liberal, with possible Tory encroachment over the past decade) and some of the suburbs of Springfield. Springfield itself would be solidly Liberal, as would Chicopee, Holyoke, and probably West Springfield. The rest of the Connecticut Valley would be ancestrally Liberal but NDP in 2011 and likely to stay with the Dippers in the future; the Berkshires would probably be the NDP base area in the state outside Boston. I'm not sure what Cape Cod would look like, probably mixed with the Lower Cape as generally speaking more Grit/Dipper and the Upper Cape more Tory. The Islands would be solidly Liberal, as would New Bedford and Fall River, until 2011 when I would think all of these areas would be ripe for NDP pickup. The Merrimack Valley and North Shore would be mostly Liberal with some Conservative areas until 2011, when the Tories would sweep the less-urban parts and the NDP the more-urban.

Provincially, I'd imagine a BC-esque setup with a center-right Liberal Party and staunchly leftist NDP, whose main bases would be in central Massachusetts into Norfolk and Plymouth and in western Massachusetts and Boston, respectively. There would probably also be a relatively strong provincial Green Party, especially in the west and in the Cape and Islands.
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« Reply #67 on: December 21, 2011, 03:44:08 pm »
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I apportioned seats the Canadian way, with each state getting no fewer members than Senators and no fewer members than it had in 1984. Would anyone be interested in drawing constituencies and looking at how they might vote?

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« Reply #68 on: December 21, 2011, 03:51:44 pm »
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I apportioned seats the Canadian way, with each state getting no fewer members than Senators and no fewer members than it had in 1984. Would anyone be interested in drawing constituencies and looking at how they might vote?



I'll try to draw a few ASAP, if you want. Wink
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« Reply #69 on: December 21, 2011, 04:47:55 pm »
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That would be excellent. I started with Utah, the smallest state that I can say I'm familiar with:



The red riding, Salt Lake, is about ten percent larger than ideal, covering all of Salt Lake County. A large portion of Utah's non-Mormon population lives in this riding, which also contains the University of Utah, and so it would be able to elect a Liberal in a good year; it would have voted Liberal in 1993 and 1997 and perhaps 2000, but now it would be Conservative, although not by so large a margin as to deny the Liberals hope of retaking it. The green riding, Ogden—Logan, would be comfortably Conservative, and the blue riding, Provo—St. George, would be among the safest Conservative seats in the country.
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« Reply #70 on: December 21, 2011, 04:50:56 pm »
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Here's Wyoming. I suppose I should've done one like yours...


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« Reply #71 on: December 21, 2011, 05:07:51 pm »
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Vermont

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« Reply #72 on: December 21, 2011, 05:12:41 pm »
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BTW Xahar, which formula did you use to apportion seats ? Initially I thought you were just keeping the same numbers and adding seats based on the two "clauses", but then I noticed California and Florida have less seats than IRL...
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« Reply #73 on: December 21, 2011, 05:22:03 pm »
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We could use DRA for doing this, you know. I'd do a few if I hadn't gotten 600 things on my plate.
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« Reply #74 on: December 21, 2011, 09:34:16 pm »
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BTW Xahar, which formula did you use to apportion seats ? Initially I thought you were just keeping the same numbers and adding seats based on the two "clauses", but then I noticed California and Florida have less seats than IRL...

I divided each state's population by 435 to get an ideal constituency size, and then I divided each population by that ideal constituency size and rounded down to get the baseline number of seats. After that, I added seats based on the various clauses.

We could use DRA for doing this, you know. I'd do a few if I hadn't gotten 600 things on my plate.

I did use DRA, actually, but I made a map myself once I realized that I was making seats out of whole counties.
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