Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 20, 2014, 01:03:55 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hashemite)
| | |-+  Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 49 Print
Author Topic: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012  (Read 66718 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8314
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

View Profile WWW
« on: December 14, 2011, 08:44:40 pm »
Ignore

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/red&document=index&lang=e

Logged

TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15055
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2011, 08:51:52 pm »
Ignore

Here's the precise distribution: (from Ian MacDonald)

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/seats%2Bbring%2Bfairness%2BCommons%2Brepresentation/5856927/story.html

BC: 6 seats, mostly Lower Mainland.

AB: 6 seats divided between Edmonton and Calgary.

ON: 15 seats, mostly 905.

QC: 3 seats, one on Montreal Island, one in Laval, the other on the South Shore.

Isn't there a projected map floating somewhere around the interwebs though? Could swear I saw one not that long ago.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1883


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 14, 2011, 09:06:55 pm »
Ignore

Come on team, we've been through this before. The exact census numbers will be released in Feburary 2012, so of course we don't know the exact seat distribution till then.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15055
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2011, 09:14:03 pm »
Ignore

Come on team, we've been through this before. The exact census numbers will be released in Feburary 2012, so of course we don't know the exact seat distribution till then.

Their precise locations? Of course not. But the provinces where seats will be added- that's included in the bill itself.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1883


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2011, 09:30:06 pm »
Ignore

No, they aren't.

Here is the bill as currently tabled:
http://parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?Language=E&Mode=1&DocId=5202547&File=24#1

There is no mention of specific numbers for any province. The key operative part of the law is here (aside from a bunch of minor amendments to make the procedural parts of the Elections Act consistent with it):

Quote
3.       After the application of rules 1 and 2 and section 51A [i.e. the electoral formula as it currently exists, pre-bill - LVP], there shall, in respect of each province that meets the condition set out in rule 4, be added, if necessary, a number of members such that, on the completion of the readjustment, the number obtained by dividing the number of members assigned to that province by the total number of members assigned to all the provinces is as close as possible to, without being below, the number obtained by dividing the population of that province by the total population of all the provinces.
      
4.       Rule 3 applies to a province if, on the completion of the preceding readjustment, the number obtained by dividing the number of members assigned to that province by the total number of members assigned to all the provinces was equal to or greater than the number obtained by dividing the population of that province by the total population of all the prov-inces, the population of each province being its population as at July 1 of the year of the decennial census that preceded that readjustment according to the estimates prepared for the purpose of that readjustment.
      
5.       Unless the context indicates otherwise, in these rules, the population of a province is the estimate of its population as at July 1 of the year of the most recent decennial census.
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9061
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2011, 08:31:30 am »
Ignore

Well, given than the government and the provinces already track population numbers, they have a very good of how many people there is in each province.

By the way, Quebec reached 8 million people yesterday.
Logged
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2011, 08:36:25 am »
Ignore

I hate how the media is stating how it is definite that X province will be getting X seats when this passes without any mention of the formula or even the census.

Anyways, this will come in handy when I start doing my proposals in February.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15055
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2011, 08:39:48 am »
Ignore

This helps Tories, potentially Grits.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/adding-seats-to-house-of-commons-a-political-windfall-for-tories/article2271940/
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1122
Canada
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2011, 03:24:44 pm »
Ignore

The proboem with Ibbitson's analysis is that it makes the assumption that the result of the 2015 election will be the same as the results of the 2011 election. On paper it might look like all those new 905 seats would go Tory...but the Tories won a lot of those seats narrowly and in the Ontario provincial election 905 went totally Liberal (plus the NDP breakthrough in Bramalea-Gore-Malton).
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15055
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2011, 03:37:45 pm »
Ignore

The proboem with Ibbitson's analysis is that it makes the assumption that the result of the 2015 election will be the same as the results of the 2011 election. On paper it might look like all those new 905 seats would go Tory...but the Tories won a lot of those seats narrowly and in the Ontario provincial election 905 went totally Liberal (plus the NDP breakthrough in Bramalea-Gore-Malton).

Ontario has a long tradition of voting for different parties at the 2 levels. But otherwise we'll agree to disagree, since this isn't a 2015 speculation thread.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1883


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2011, 07:31:55 pm »
Ignore


This article is just hopelessly confused. The seats created in the new bill are not concentrated in fast-growing areas of the provinces in question. There are two separate issues here. Even under the current formula, seats are reallocated after every census, and so seats are added to high-growth areas. This is not a result of the new bill. The inter-provincial inequities amended by the new bill are province-wide inequities. After each redistricting under the current formula, Windsor is just as underrepresented as Brampton. It's true that Brampton becomes more underrepresented as the decade goes on relative to Windsor, but this would be fixed after the census with or without the bill. It's the underrepresentation of both Brampton and Windsor relative to Winnipeg and Halifax that gets (well, really only partially) alleviated by the new bill.

Thus the partisan effect of the new bill doesn't depend on strength in the 905 and Lower Mainland, but on strength in the three fast-growing provinces in general. Now, in fact it does help the Tories, but for reasons other than those articulated by Ibibitson. Certainly it does not help the Liberals under conditions in which the majority of their caucus in east of the Ottawa River, granting that those conditions might not last as DL says.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1883


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2012, 09:50:52 pm »
Ignore

So, I realize now I was mistaken about the timeline and the use of estimates; my apologies. I think RogueBeaver was right about the provincial numbers.

Some time between this conversation of ours and now, Elections Canada has updated its web site to include this timeline that, as you can see, somewhat confusingly has at the top the sentence "The process is set to begin in February 2012 when Statistics Canada releases the population numbers from the 2011 Census", but then the first item in the timeline is the allocation of seats by province on December 16, 2011 (just a day after this thread ended above) based on "estimates" provided to Elections Canada by the Chief Statistician. There is also now this other website giving the official provincial seat counts, and they are exactly as RogueBeaver was saying.

I was confused about why they would use the estimates rather than the census numbers, but Elections Canada links to this Statcan website that claims that for overall population numbers, though not for smaller groups, they think the estimates are more accurate than the census itself due to correction for undercoverage based on "postcensal coverage studies of a representative sample of individuals". So (at least as far as I can tell) they use the December estimates to allocate by province even if the census numbers in February don't actually add up to the same sum. This is different from how it is done in the U.S.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2012, 09:55:43 pm by The Great Pumpkin »Logged
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2012, 10:31:02 pm »
Ignore

I've never seen them use estimates before; it's always been population. I think the legislation allows for estimates now, though. I think they will still use the census for dividing up the individual provinces though.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2012, 11:06:24 am »
Ignore

Census results released tomorrow. OMG OMG OMG can't wait!!!!!1111oneoneone
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: February 08, 2012, 08:36:25 am »
Ignore

ITS HERE:

Canada    33,476,688
Newfoundland and Labrador    514,536
Prince Edward Island    140,204
Nova Scotia    921,727
New Brunswick    751,171
Quebec    7,903,001
Ontario    12,851,821
Manitoba    1,208,268
Saskatchewan    1,033,381
Alberta    3,645,257
British Columbia    4,400,057
Yukon    33,897
Northwest Territories    41,462
Nunavut    31,906
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #15 on: February 08, 2012, 08:38:22 am »
Ignore

Population by riding:

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table-Tableau.cfm?LANG=Eng&T=501&PR=0&SR=1&S=3&O=D
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 955


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2012, 09:27:05 am »
Ignore


Drool... thats what trhee ridings you ccan basically split in half to meet quota i think.

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/geo/map-carte/pdf/thematic/2011-98320-001-001-003-01-eng.pdf

map of growth in CMAs,
Logged
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2012, 09:52:05 am »
Ignore

Possibly. Will make proposal maps when I get some time. Anyone else is welcome to do so, of course. I'll post anyone's maps on my blog if they want me to Smiley
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
DL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1122
Canada
View Profile
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2012, 10:44:35 am »
Ignore

Its worth noting that one of the fatest growing ridings in Canada is Trinity-Spadina - up 25% since 2006!! Seems like a no-brainer that a new riding will have to be created in downtown TO.
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 955


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2012, 11:02:24 am »
Ignore

Its worth noting that one of the fatest growing ridings in Canada is Trinity-Spadina - up 25% since 2006!! Seems like a no-brainer that a new riding will have to be created in downtown TO.
Absolutely, the City of TO is 2.6m... basically 25/26 ridings over the 22 today. I suspect a 4th riding will be/should be cut out of the 3 core ridings of Toronto Centre (130k), TS(144k) and St. Paul (116K) with possible pieces from other around

Scarborough Rouge River is the largest out that way at 135K; Don Valley West is 123K; Willowdale 140K... those are the largest ridings that will/should see changes.
Logged
Hatman
EarlAW
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20962
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.00


View Profile WWW
« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2012, 11:15:23 am »
Ignore

I noticed how large Trinity-Spadina got as well. Toronto-Danforth barely increased, though. I was noticing as I was going through the census tracts for my demo maps, that a lot of them had lost population between 2001 and 2006.

Anyways, nice to see some large NDP ridings, hopefully they have babies; Smaller, NDP ridings! Smiley  But, we all know the Tories will benefit the most.

Im hoping Northern Ontario keeps their 10 ridings, but I'm not sure... I see Kenora took a real hit. I guess it would be ok to get rid of that riding, since its Tory, but I know that wont happen unless they do something weird in the northwest.
Logged

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com

Follow me on Twitter @EarlWashburn
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9061
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2012, 11:49:00 am »
Ignore

I suppose than ridings in my area won't change.

The less populated riding had near average progress, while the more populated had very slight progress (but not spread equally at all).
Logged
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 955


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: February 08, 2012, 12:20:46 pm »
Ignore

I noticed how large Trinity-Spadina got as well. Toronto-Danforth barely increased, though. I was noticing as I was going through the census tracts for my demo maps, that a lot of them had lost population between 2001 and 2006.

Anyways, nice to see some large NDP ridings, hopefully they have babies; Smaller, NDP ridings! Smiley  But, we all know the Tories will benefit the most.

Im hoping Northern Ontario keeps their 10 ridings, but I'm not sure... I see Kenora took a real hit. I guess it would be ok to get rid of that riding, since its Tory, but I know that wont happen unless they do something weird in the northwest.

Most of the East end didn't see much growth, and a New riding DT could see polls move into Daveport which i was surprised to see showed a decline.
Most of the new ridings we all know are going to be in the 905 area, but The north is going to be interesting since they will most likely lose one. They could do some murging of Kenora with TB-RR and TB-SN so as to make two ridings something like a Thunder Bay-Kenora (which would be a competative NDP riding). Algoma also is the next lowest with about 74K, i suspect they would play with the borders around Nickel belt and Sudbury.
Logged
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15055
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2012, 12:23:33 pm »
Ignore

I wonder what the new ridings here in Quebec will look like. One on the South Shore, one in Laval and the other on Montreal Island proper.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
lilTommy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 955


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2012, 12:59:22 pm »
Ignore

I wonder what the new ridings here in Quebec will look like. One on the South Shore, one in Laval and the other on Montreal Island proper.
Quebec is interesting, there are a number of Souther Shore, metro montreal ridigns that are over 120k (including Hull-Aylmer)
hmmm Montreal will be fun; Outremont is the smallest with 95k and Jeanne-Le Ber is the largest at 115k, looks like some ridings will see big changes in order to get 1 new riding on the island since most are about/around 100k
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 49 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines