Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Wilfred Day]

Will we see the Ontario final report Monday? Despite the prorogation, the House of Commons Calendar still shows the House sitting on Monday. Presumably this is about to change, and will show an adjournment tabling date instead. Monday? Wednesday?http://www.parl.gc.ca/HouseChamberBusiness/ChamberCalendar.aspx?Language=E

[Pundits Guide]

The Act says that if Parliament is adjourned, the Commons Speaker can just Gazette the final report. I was told on August 21 that Elections Canada had not yet received the report from the Ontario Commission, and wasn't expecting it until the first or second week of September. The prorogation if anything will speed up its arrival in the public domain.

[Krago]

Back in June, Toronto City Council authorized the City Manager to hire a consultant to re-draw the city's ward boundaries.  Here is my job application.

Based on Toronto's 2011 Census population of 2,615,200, the current 44 wards have an average population of 60,000 (for Wilf: 59,433.1818).

My plan would freeze the size of City Council, and adjust the boundaries so that no ward could be more than 10% above or below the average.

Here is the map:  Proposed Toronto 44 Ward Map - Option 1

Enjoy.

Here are some alternatives:

Proposed Ward Map - Option 2
Proposed Ward Map - Option 2a

Enjoy.

[Poirot]

MP Maria Mourani will go to court about the redistricting of Ahunstic riding.

A neigbourhood is split in two, strong sense of community, and the commission should use Statscan numbers and not speculate on future growth of population.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/Montreal/2013/09/17/009-maria-mourani-ahunstic-circonscription-contestation.shtml

All the territory of Saint-Laurent-Cartierville riding not in Saint-Laurent borough was put in Ahunstic riding. Ahunstic would become too big so part of Ahunstic in the east was added to Bourassa.

Saint-Laurent ridign will now have the lowest population in all Montreal island ridings. In the commmision's report, they write:  we should note that the Saint-Laurent electoral district, on the Island of Montréal, received special treatment in light of the views expressed by numerous stakeholders that this borough was experiencing very strong demographic growth, and that we could reasonably expect this trend to continue in the years to come.

...convinced us that the demographic deficit that our proposed map reveals in Saint-Laurent would in all likelihood be temporary and, what is more, short-lived.

Saint-Laurent has a population within the 10% deviation from the provincial quotient. They
also published a quotient for the Montreal island ridings. That quotient is higher and Saint-Laurent is below 10% of that one and stand out has the only riding that is so much below the the others. 

Table 2 illustrates on this report's page shows this.
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=qc&dir=now/reports&document=page5&lang=e

I think maybe the mistake by the commission is writing about giving a special treatment to take into account future growth. Ridings that are near +10% of quotient don't get to show numbers predicted for future population, like by the time the next map is adopted we will have 1,000 more people and be over 10% of quotient so our riding should be designed to be closer to quotient at the start. And suburban ridings with new housing developments are not automatically designed with less population because people will move in over the next ten years.   

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed a lot of assumptions about high growth areas this time around. Certainly in the Ontario report.

[Krago]

With Prorogation being made official last week, I expect the Ontario Report to be published in the Canada Gazette this afternoon.  Or not.

[Krago]

The Canada Gazette is out.  We'll have to wait another week.

[Krago]

It might be another false alarm, but I noticed that the publication dates of EBC reports in the Canada Gazette are all Saturdays, not Fridays.  So we finally might see the Ontario Report today.

[Ontarois]

So, I guess that neither was yesterday the day to see the last redistribution report

[Wilfred Day]

I heard from a reliable source yesterday that Elections Canada's problem was, verifying the precise population figures for the final tweaks by the Commission. I also heard that the final changes will be published in a very few days.

[Wilfred Day]

Here's the precise distribution: (from Ian MacDonald)

http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/seats%2Bbring%2Bfairness%2BCommons%2Brepresentation/5856927/story.html

BC: 6 seats, mostly Lower Mainland.

AB: 6 seats divided between Edmonton and Calgary.

ON: 15 seats, mostly 905.

QC: 3 seats, one on Montreal Island, one in Laval, the other on the South Shore.

As a point of historical interest, I'm going back to post #2 which quoted the widespread assumption about where the new seats would be.

So, as it turned out (subject to Ontario's final tweaks which are unlikely to change the overall pattern):

BC: 6 seats, 5 in Lower Mainland (Vancouver Granville, Burnaby South, Delta, Cloverdale—Langley City and Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon) and one on Vancouver Island (Nanaimo—Ladysmith)

AB: 6 seats divided between Edmonton (Edmonton—Manning), Edmonton suburbs (Edmonton—Wetaskiwin), Calgary (Calgary Shepard and Calgary Rocky Ridge), Northern Alberta (Peace River—Westlock) and Southern Alberta (Bow River).

ON: 15 seats, 8 in 905 (Mississauga Centre, Brampton Centre, Brampton South, King—Vaughan, Aurora—Richmond Hill, Markham—Unionville, Milton, Flamborough—Glanbrook) 3 in Toronto (University—Rosedale, Don Valley North and Scarborough—Wexford), one in Waterloo Region (Kitchener South—Hespeler), one in Simcoe County (Barrie—Innisfil), one in Ottawa (Rideau--Carleton), and one in the Kingston--Belleville--Peterborough region (Hastings--Lennox & Addington).

QC: 3 seats, two on the North Shore (Blainville, Mirabel), the other on the South Shore (La Prairie).

[RogueBeaver]

When will the process finally be over?

[Wilfred Day]

When will the process finally be over?

Given Maria Mourani's court action, who can say?
http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/Montreal/2013/09/17/009-maria-mourani-ahunstic-circonscription-contestation.shtml

After the Court upheld Yvon Godin's complaint, the new Commission for Miramichi and Acadie–Bathurst submitted its report December 8, 2004. We may have 14 more months to go?

[Poirot]

Masson-Angers and Buckhingham aren't in the Gatineau riding, they're in the Pontiac riding.

Currently, yes. Hmm. Mathieu Ravignat does have a riding office there, in Buckingham. Redistributed Pontiac has a notional NDP majority of 21.37%, while Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation has 21.75%. Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel had only a 15.31% NDP majority. I don't suppose Ravignat would prefer Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation. My point is, Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation is a good riding. New Mirabel has a notional NDP majority of 18.53%, but that would be shallow support. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation looks like a prize worth fighting over.

Since Argenteuil-La Petite Nation will include the eastern part of Gatineau, it could be a place to attract a candidate from a national union (or that could be the case in Hull riding since I think it will be open.)

Wilfred Day said the two riding office of Freeman are located in Argenteuil-La Petite Nation so it could be more familiar ground for her. In terms of electoral chances, if the Liberal party is the main opponent in Quebec, Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation is part in the Outaouais which historically has been a very strong Liberal region (and safe LPQ on the provincial scene).

If the Bloc is weak Mirabel could be easier for her to win against Liberals. The bigger threat in Mirabel might be the Bloc.   

[Krago]

When will the process finally be over?

Given Maria Mourani's court action, who can say?
http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/Montreal/2013/09/17/009-maria-mourani-ahunstic-circonscription-contestation.shtml

After the Court upheld Yvon Godin's complaint, the new Commission for Miramichi and Acadie–Bathurst submitted its report December 8, 2004. We may have 14 more months to go?

Allan Fotheringham claimed that when he moved from Saskatchewan to Ontario, he increased the average IQ of both places.  The Miramichi/Acadie-Bathurst Commission managed to lower the proportion of francophones in both seats when they returned to the old boundaries in the area.

[Poirot]

Not many changes, as expected. Some truly awful names though. Disappointed that no one had the balls to contest the Chomedey area riding being named "Vimy".

I emailed Laval MP's office to make sure he was aware of the proposed name because it was at after the stage of public input. I said I didn't see the link of the proposed name relating to the geographic area. I guess he didn't mind (or he is not a very good MP).

On some other name changes, Salaberry-Suroît seems redundant as previously stated because all the territory of the riding is located in Suroît.

I don't like Soulanges Vaudreuil (the new Vaudreuil riding). The MRC Vaudreuil-Soulanges is now in two ridings instead of one. It could be confusing to use the same two words for a new riding that is much smaller than the old one and is not all the MRC anymore like it used to be.

That was the two MPs of Beauhanois-Salaberry and Vaudreuil-Soulanges in committee suggesting names. I think they also proposed Vaudreuil-Soulanges Est and Salaberry- Soulanges Ouest, I guess they didn't want the Soulanges name to disappear.

[Wilfred Day]

I don't like Soulanges Vaudreuil (the new Vaudreuil riding). The MRC Vaudreuil-Soulanges is now in two ridings instead of one. It could be confusing to use the same two words for a new riding that is much smaller than the old one and is not all the MRC anymore like it used to be.

The Ontario Commission made an even worse mistake (unless they fix it in their final tweaks.) They use the name Markham—Unionville for a riding which is very different from the present Markham—Unionville. The majority of the present Markham—Unionville becomes the new Markham—Thornhill. The majority of the new Markham—Unionville is from the present Oak Ridges--Markham. The new Markham—Unionville is not the successor to any present riding, so it is a new riding with an old name. SNAFU. The media will get them confused for the next two years.

  

[Hatman 🍁]

Except both ridings contain Unionville.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's some ideas for names in that area:

Markham-Thornhill -> Markham (South)
Markham-Unionville -> Unionville-Buttonville
Vaughan-Thornhill-Markham -> Thornhill
Markham-Stouffville ->Whitchurch-Stouffville-Markham
Vaughan-Wodbridge -> Woodbridge
King-Vaughan -> King-Maple-Kleinburg

[Wilfred Day]

Here's some ideas for names in that area:
Markham-Unionville -> Unionville-Buttonville

Or just Markham Northwest, or Markham--Unionville--Angus Glen? Buttonville was already in the old Markham--Unionville, so it doesn't distinguish it from the old riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Unionville-Victoria Square?

[Hatman 🍁]

Another one:

Aurora-Richmond Hill -> Aurora-Oak Ridges-Jefferson

[DL]

The final Ontario report is out.

[Wilfred Day]

Big change in Scarborough. The Commission reverts to its first Proposal.

As in the first Proposal, the new Scarborough riding is Scarborough East, but renamed SCARBOROUGH—ROUGE PARK. The successor to Scarborough--Rouge River is Scarborough North.  Scarborough Agincourt is largely unchanged, as is Scarborough Centre, Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough Guildwood. Scarborough--Rouge Park is the 43% of Pickering--Scarborough East that is within Scarborough, plus some leftover parts of Scarborough--Rouge River and Scarborough--Guildwood.

Scarborough--Rouge Park is notionally Liberal, in a three-way race. Scarborough—Guildwood is only marginally Liberal, and might become open if its MP gambles on the new Scarborough--Rouge Park. Scarborough—Agincourt remains Liberal. Scarborough Southwest and Scarborough North remain NDP. Scarborough Centre remains marginally Conservative in a tight three-way race.    
 

[DL]

I notice that a little slice of University-Rosedale in the northeast corner gets severed and added to Don Valley West...probably nets the NDP a couple of hundred votes in U-R.