Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[DL]

There is also the possibility that Wai Young the Tory MP in Vancouver South might flee increasingly marginal Vancouver South and run in Vancouver Granville setting the stage for a CPC-NDP battle in Vancouver South as the Liberal vote there would likely collapse to single digits with no Ujjal Dosanjh running as the incumbent

[DL]

The new proposed Alberta map is out
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=ab&document=index&lang=e

Looks like the newly renamed Edmonton East may be more NDP winnable than it was before.

[Smid]

There is also the possibility that Wai Young the Tory MP in Vancouver South might flee increasingly marginal Vancouver South and run in Vancouver Granville setting the stage for a CPC-NDP battle in Vancouver South as the Liberal vote there would likely collapse to single digits with no Ujjal Dosanjh running as the incumbent

I was thinking exactly this, had been since Earl posted his ideology map the other day, actually (before the boundaries came out, I wondered if perhaps there would be a seat basically stretching from southern V-Quadra, through southern V-Granville and through to western V-South, following the blue band there... I thought if such a seat were created, the new MP for V-South would possibly want to contest that).

[Hatman 🍁]

The new proposed Alberta map is out
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=ab&document=index&lang=e

Looks like the newly renamed Edmonton East may be more NDP winnable than it was before.

Oooh. Finally, I can compare a map I made. Calgary looks very different than my proposal. I like the new riding names though. I guess they felt with the new ridings, they had to go with names instead of directionals. Same goes for Edmonton really. Not much change in Edmonton-Stratchona which is good. I was working on an Edmonton proposal that would have altered it somewhat.

As for rural Alberta, I'm not a fan of their splitting up of Red Deer. It's not big enough for that.

[Smid]

Very interesting... Calgary Confederation would be weaker for the Tories, I would think, compared to the old Calgary Centre North, since it stretches into the Varsity part of town... looking at Krago's map of Calgary poll results in 2011, Rob Anders lost a few polls in that part of his riding (which has been transferred into Confederation), and the polls he won there were weaker than the his wins in other parts of the riding. Actually, The506's maps are also handy and useful to look at in conjunction with Krago's.

Calgary North East becomes Calgary McCall, which is the same name as used provincially. The part of the riding transferred to the new Calgary Forest Lawn was predominantly Tory, judging from The506's maps (I count four polls there that when Liberal, with the rest voting Tory - strongest in the Vista Heights part of the riding, where I see a 70% Tory poll, a 64% Tory poll and a 57% Tory poll). The parts remaining in Calgary McCall, up in the Northwestern corner, around Coventry Hills and Harvest Hills, there are some very strong Tory polls, but the remainder of the riding is quite close if won by the Tories, or else won by the Grits, including a 72% Liberal poll in Taradale. If the new Calgary McCall isn't a notionally Liberal seat, it certain is very close to being so. There's a large immigrant population in the area - I think predominantly Vietnamese and Indian - you'll probably get an idea of that from the Demographic Map based on old provincial boundaries, especially the low % speaking English at home and high % speaking an unofficial language at home.

Calgary Confederation would probably be notionally a couple of percent weaker for the Tories compared to the existing Calgary Centre North. The strongest Tory booths seem to be in the Northern end of the riding - from Highland Park and New Haven, north. Highland Park (including a 72% Tory poll) remains in Calgary Confederation, but the rest of those very good polls for the Tories are transferred into Calgary Nose Hill. The seat also gains some of the area around the university from Calgary West, and those polls voted NDP or weakly Tory last election.

Calgary Signal Hill is mostly Calgary West, but without Varsity and Tuscany (Varsity, as mentioned is off to Confederation, and Tuscany goes to the new Spy Hill, which is made up of Tuscany and all the new estates with mountain views in the old Nose Hill). It also picks up some of the best parts of the old Calgary Centre - I see two 74% Tory polls and a 75% Tory poll in the Glenbrook area.

Looks like Calgary Centre gains a single poll off Calgary East, which was 50% Tory. It loses some good parts to the new Calgary Signal Hill (old Calgary West), though, so probably loses a couple of percent. I wouldn't want to estimate the margin, but I think it would be fairly slim, given all the 55-65% polls lost, plus those three >70% polls, also.

The new Calgary Forest Lawn probably has a similar margin to the existing Calgary East... seems like the area was politically fairly homogenous in 2011 - both the parts from the old Calgary East, and also the polls gained from Calgary Northeast.

The remaining part of Calgary is all quite similar, also - quite strongly Tory, as you'd expect. Harper will probably run in Heritage, I'd guess. Given that the three ridings are mostly made up of C-SE and C-SW, and that those two ridings were both about 75% Tory and both reasonably homogenous, I'd suspect that those three ridings are all in that range also. I see some polls that are lower, and some that are higher, but we can mark all three as very safe Conservative.

I haven't really discussed the old Calgary Nose Hill, which is now mostly the new Calgary Nose Hill and new Calgary Spy Hill, but that's all Conservative, anyway.

[Smid]

Edmonton East becomes Edmonton Griesbach. It gains area from Edmonton-St Albert, including two polls that voted NDP in 2011. Much of that area provincially is Edmonton-Calder, and voted NDP. It loses a few polls to Edmonton Manning, and a small area to Edmonton Strathcona, which now crosses the river, I note.

[Foucaulf]

Would like to mention BC one last time amid all the Alberta talk. I've been thinking of an alternative redistribution for some time now, following my initial complaints about the Delta constituency. I have basically two ideas:

-Rethinking of Vancouver's affluent west side. First combine Vancouver Quadra and Vancouver Granville and add onto it the part of Kitsilano in Vancouver Centre and Fairview up to Granville Island. That should switch around 3000 people. Now, instead of a vertical cut we make a horizontal one. The Northern riding would have Fairview, Kitsilano, Shaughnessy, Dunbar and the University lands. The Southern would have everything else, like Oakridge, Marpole and Kerrisdale.

-Splitting up of Delta. Richmond's far east is first given to a Burnaby riding, and then Richmond East absorbs Ladner. North Delta is again united with Punjabi Newton. The most controversial part is uniting Tsawwassen with South Surrey/White Rock; both are suburbs but divided by the ocean. A necessary rearrangement of the rest of Surrey follows.


Not sure how many people here are from BC, but I want to throw it out there for criticism. That, and I have nothing to contribute when it comes to Alberta!

[lilTommy]

There is also the possibility that Wai Young the Tory MP in Vancouver South might flee increasingly marginal Vancouver South and run in Vancouver Granville setting the stage for a CPC-NDP battle in Vancouver South as the Liberal vote there would likely collapse to single digits with no Ujjal Dosanjh running as the incumbent

From my outside perspective, VS would be the kind of riding the NDP needs to win to be the gov't; and the tories need to hold to stay gov't; its not your typical NDP riding... middle and upper class, very ethnically diverse and provincially at least V-Fraserview is marginal and tends to go with the party that is gov't. If Wai Young Jumps to VG, and their is no Ujjal running... the NDP would need a strong local candidate to win but might have the edge me thinks? Espcially since by that time the NDP will have probably won V-Fraserview and be the BC Gov (assuming a Dix win)

As for Foucaulf's Horizontal split idea, interesting. I haven't heard this option before. You go from 1 Liberal and 1 Tory favourable ridings to 2 Lib-Con battle ridings.

[lilTommy]

OK Alberta,
- Red deer, could ahve been split due to growth in the central part of Alberta? could have been a forward-thinking move with the slpit perhaps?
- Lethbridge; this re-draw benefits the NDP in a huge way, the very strong tory polls in the south, all the way to the US are gone, now part of an odd shapped Foothills and Medicine Hat. Its now focused on metro Lethbridge by the looks of it. Still an uphill battle but this would be (should be) in the top 5 NDP targets.
- Edmonton; I like that they went with more urban focused ridings, with only one E-Wetaskiwin being almost all rural with only a sliver of suburban edmonton as a left over. (i count St. Albert-Edmonton as Ed, because the two cities just have grown into each other). E-Greisbach does look like it could be more favourable to the NDP with the addition of Calder and favourable prov. NDP areas. My thoughts are Ray Martin might be tapped out (age and his what 3 recent election losses) the NDP would need a stellar candidate here to win, and probably need the incumbent not to run.
E-Starthcona i think just got stronger for the NDP! its only major change was oddly adding Riverdale from E-East N of the River into it, which voted NDP... I find that odd, and would add it back to E-Greisbach just to keep the river as a natural boundary which i think works in most cases.
E-C basically gets a name change and losses only Meadowlark Park... and the lone NDP poll froim that area.

[Hatman 🍁]

This site has some poll maps from the Alberta provincial election: http://www.jbumstead.ca/ ; Does Krago have some as well?

[Novelty]

Wow, we are in the thick of it.  You've got a whole load of work ahead, Hatman!  Can't wait to see what you have in store.

[DL]

E-Greisbach does look like it could be more favourable to the NDP with the addition of Calder and favourable prov. NDP areas. My thoughts are Ray Martin might be tapped out (age and his what 3 recent election losses) the NDP would need a stellar candidate here to win, and probably need the incumbent not to run.

FYI, The Tory MP for Edmonton East (soon to be renamed Greisbach) is that Peter Goldring character who got expelled from the Tory caucus after being charged with drunk driving. He is now sitting as an independent. There is almost zero chance that he will run again.

[DL]

As for Foucaulf's Horizontal split idea in vancouver, interesting. I haven't heard this option before. You go from 1 Liberal and 1 Tory favourable ridings to 2 Lib-Con battle ridings.

Actually if they did that "horizontal split" you would have a riding made up of the southern parts of vancouver-Quadra and vancouver Granville that would be a Tory/Liberal tossup which would be an almost purely upper class old money riding. The northern half would not be such a foregone conclusion. I think that if you create a riding that including Fairview and Kitsilano and over to UBC you get a seat where with the right candidate the NDP could be very competitive. This would be a federal seat largely made up of the provincial seats of Point-Grey and Fairview...both have gone NDP in the past and both are almost certain to go NDP next May...Christy Clark barely won a byelection in Point Grey last year when she was at the height of her honeymoon bounce!

[lilTommy]

As for Foucaulf's Horizontal split idea in vancouver, interesting. I haven't heard this option before. You go from 1 Liberal and 1 Tory favourable ridings to 2 Lib-Con battle ridings.

Actually if they did that "horizontal split" you would have a riding made up of the southern parts of vancouver-Quadra and vancouver Granville that would be a Tory/Liberal tossup which would be an almost purely upper class old money riding. The northern half would not be such a foregone conclusion. I think that if you create a riding that including Fairview and Kitsilano and over to UBC you get a seat where with the right candidate the NDP could be very competitive. This would be a federal seat largely made up of the provincial seats of Point-Grey and Fairview...both have gone NDP in the past and both are almost certain to go NDP next May...Christy Clark barely won a byelection in Point Grey last year when she was at the height of her honeymoon bounce!

The only reason i'm not as confident as you are about the NDP being competative in this type of drawn riding, is because of the inclusion of Shaunessey and Dunbar as Foucaulf suggests, and are those not terriblely unfriendly NDP areas? But i see your point, it becomes more like a Van-South in this current proposal

[DL]

I guess it boils down to whether the NDP has a better chance at winning Granville as currently configured as opposed to winning a riding composed of the northern halves of Granville and Quadra

[lilTommy]

I guess it boils down to whether the NDP has a better chance at winning Granville as currently configured as opposed to winning a riding composed of the northern halves of Granville and Quadra

I think, arguably, in that case the NDP has a much better shot at a Nothern split riding vs the Granville one
... and i'm sure thats at the top of their mind for the boundary commission

[Foucaulf]

Alpha version of the horizontal split.

I took it upon myself to give the ridings tentative names. Both ridings should have around 100000-105000 people if my calculations were correct. I may end up jutting the Northern riding out to include Shaughnessy instead of Dunbar, but that is aesthetically and demographically unappealing.

Anyways, as it stands now the Northern riding is incredibly Liberal and is waiting for a Lib-NDP matchup. The Southern riding would go 45% Conservative on a bad day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a fan of that protrusion on the northern riding. But, Im happy to see others making proposal maps

[Hatman 🍁]

Part 1 of my Alberta analysis (Edmonton): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/alberta-federal-riding-boundary.html

[King of Kensington]

I guess it boils down to whether the NDP has a better chance at winning Granville as currently configured as opposed to winning a riding composed of the northern halves of Granville and Quadra

I would think a "Point Grey-Fairview" riding would be quite Tory-phobic, given that it would be chock full of academics and urban professionals who are very socially liberal.   Given the state of the federal Liberals I think such a riding would be a good NDP target. 

Vancouver-Granville would be harder for them.

[LastVoter]

So Alberta is basically gerrymandered for the dippers, I doubt you could draw a better map for them. BC is obviously very tory friendly now, so that kind of more than cancels out the 2 or 3 new pick-ups that NDP will get in Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

So Alberta is basically gerrymandered for the dippers, I doubt you could draw a better map for them. BC is obviously very tory friendly now, so that kind of more than cancels out the 2 or 3 new pick-ups that NDP will get in Alberta.

Uhh, you could easily draw a better map for the NDP:

[Novelty]

Part 1 of my Alberta analysis (Edmonton): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/alberta-federal-riding-boundary.html

Wait, did I miss the final part of BC?

[LastVoter]

So Alberta is basically gerrymandered for the dippers, I doubt you could draw a better map for them. BC is obviously very tory friendly now, so that kind of more than cancels out the 2 or 3 new pick-ups that NDP will get in Alberta.

Uhh, you could easily draw a better map for the NDP:

Isn't that for 2 districts, but the current configuration allows NDP to get 3 seats in Edmonton?

[Hatman 🍁]

Part 1 of my Alberta analysis (Edmonton): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/alberta-federal-riding-boundary.html

Wait, did I miss the final part of BC?

Nope, as I mentioned I will finish off BC. I just needed to recognize the fact that Alberta's has come out.

So Alberta is basically gerrymandered for the dippers, I doubt you could draw a better map for them. BC is obviously very tory friendly now, so that kind of more than cancels out the 2 or 3 new pick-ups that NDP will get in Alberta.

Uhh, you could easily draw a better map for the NDP:

Isn't that for 2 districts, but the current configuration allows NDP to get 3 seats in Edmonton?

Good point. That map makes for 2 safe NDP seats, while the commission's proposal makes for 2 "possible" NDP seats. Though, the more I think about it the more I think we could win Edmonton Griesbach.