Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[MaxQue]

The former DVW MP is younger and has an higher profile.

[Wilfred Day]

And will Bennett flee St. Paul's and run in Mt Pleasant?

From Rabble:

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(But I wouldn't consider one tweet binding.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh. Teddy is on rabble. Neat. (been a while since I've gone there).

Well then, Carolyn Bennett is likely toast it seems. But maybe there are people in Trinity-Spadina that like her enough to vote for her even though they voted for Chow. But, with the NDP polling better, it's going to be tough for Bennett to win.

[adma]

Well then, Carolyn Bennett is likely toast it seems. But maybe there are people in Trinity-Spadina that like her enough to vote for her even though they voted for Chow. But, with the NDP polling better, it's going to be tough for Bennett to win.

Then again, keep in mind a certain "Annex cultural class" vote that opted for the Green Shift Liberals over NDP in '08, i.e. they might be quite amenable to someone with Bennett's clout...

[Wilfred Day]

Has no one yet produced the transposition list of proposed new ridings showing the number of voters transposed from each old riding? So you can see which riding is successor to which, and which are the "new" ridiings?

For example, how many people have noticed that 60% of the present Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock would be in the proposed HALIBURTON—UXBRIDGE, and 64% of the present Northumberland—Quinte West would be in the proposed PRINCE EDWARD—QUINTE WEST? This means that the proposed KAWARTHA LAKES—PORT HOPE—COBOURG would combine 40% of the present Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock with 36% of the present Northumberland—Quinte West and 13% of the present Durham district. It would likely have no incumbent MP; a new riding.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Has no one yet produced the transposition list of proposed new ridings showing the number of voters transposed from each old riding? So you can see which riding is successor to which, and which are the "new" ridiings?

Eligible voters, I'm not sure, but the transposition of 2011 votes is at the link Earl gave above.

[King of Kensington]

I'm also wondering about the Liberal prognosis of Mt Pleasant--well, at least I can picture the Conservatives super-targeting it now that their vote isn't suppressed by the "unwinnable riding" psychological factor.  (And even more so in the event that the border is pushed further back from Church + Wellesley.)

I don't think Mount Pleasant is in play for the Conservatives.  It has more of the "too educated to vote Tory too rich to vote NDP" demographic than just about anywhere.

However the reconstructed DVW creates a seat that is harder to take back for the Liberals and would likely be the closest thing to a safe Tory seat in 416.

[King of Kensington]

I wouldn't be surprised if David Miller ran as a star candidate for the NDP in St. Paul's.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't be surprised if David Miller ran as a star candidate for the NDP in St. Paul's.

I would be very surprised.

[Wilfred Day]

Has no one yet produced the transposition list of proposed new ridings showing the number of voters transposed from each old riding? So you can see which riding is successor to which, and which are the "new" ridiings?

Eligible voters, I'm not sure, but the transposition of 2011 votes is at the link Earl gave above.

Eligible voters is what I want. Someone must have done it?

[Hatman 🍁]

Has no one yet produced the transposition list of proposed new ridings showing the number of voters transposed from each old riding? So you can see which riding is successor to which, and which are the "new" ridiings?

Eligible voters, I'm not sure, but the transposition of 2011 votes is at the link Earl gave above.

Eligible voters is what I want. Someone must have done it?

I guess you'll just have to do the math for the time being.

[Wilfred Day]

Has no one yet produced the transposition list of proposed new ridings showing the number of voters transposed from each old riding? So you can see which riding is successor to which, and which are the "new" ridiings?

I guess you'll just have to do the math for the time being.

Beyond me, except that I've done it for Kawartha Lakes—Port Hope—Cobourg, which is 40% of the present Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, 36% of the present Northumberland—Quinte West, and 13% of the present Durham district: no incumbent has a reason to run here.

Eyeballing, the 15 "new" (no incumbent) electoral districts are:
Nepean-Carleton
Kawartha Lakes—Port Hope—Cobourg
Markham—Unionville
Aurora—Richmond Hill
Oak Ridges
Mount Pleasant
Don Valley North
Scarborough East
Mississauga Centre
Brampton West
Brampton Centre
Halton
Waterdown—Glanbrook
Kitchener South—North Dumfries—Brant 
Barrie North

[Hatman 🍁]

The funny thing is some of those ridings already exist with those names. But, Nepean is clearly the successor to Nepean--Carleton (not N-C, which will be renamed anyways). Markham is the successor to Markham--Unionville. Brampton West was almost an even split between Brampton West and South and Milton is the successor to Halton.

[King of Kensington]

There seems to be a lot of opposition to the new map in Eastern Ontario.  From what I understand it's basically an abandonment of the "county model" that prevailed since Confederation and instead linking towns along the St. Lawrence and separating them from rural areas, along an east-west axis.

[Hatman 🍁]

There seems to be a lot of opposition to the new map in Eastern Ontario.  From what I understand it's basically an abandonment of the "county model" that prevailed since Confederation and instead linking towns along the St. Lawrence and separating them from rural areas, along an east-west axis.

There is no change to ridings lining the St. Lawrence. Do you mean Lake Ontario?

[King of Kensington]

Yes, I stand corrected.

[Wilfred Day]

There seems to be a lot of opposition to the new map in Eastern Ontario.  From what I understand it's basically an abandonment of the "county model" that prevailed since Confederation and instead linking towns along the St. Lawrence and separating them from rural areas, along an east-west axis.

You are really talking about the proposed BELLEVILLE—NAPANEE—FRONTENAC which would unite Belleville with part of Frontenac for the first time since Confederation, combining 49.5% of the present Prince Edward—Hastings with 48% of the present Lanark - Frontenac - Lennox and Addington. This is then reflected in the proposed LANARK—FRONTENAC—HASTINGS would stretch a three-hour drive from Carleton Place to Bancroft, combining Lanark with part of Hastings for the first time since Confederation, uniting 52% of Lanark - Frontenac - Lennox and Addington with 29% of Prince Edward—Hastings and the 12,385 in Mississippi Mills.

The mayors of Belleville and Quinte West have already agreed to a joint submission for a BELLEVILLE--QUINTE WEST configuration. (By the way, it would have no incumbent.)

On a slightly different point, the Commission proposes the Belleville-Kingston area have four ridings with 454,162 residents, enough for 4.2 districts, by taking Trent Hills, Brighton, Cramahe, Alnwick/Haldimand and Alderville First Nation from Northumberland County. Unnecessary; those four ridings can well afford to lose 36,741 people and keep some kind of NORTHUMBERLAND configuration (which would have Rick Norlock as an incumbent.)

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 results mapped using the new boundaries: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/proposed-riding-boundaries-map-coloured.html

[MaxQue]

Wow.

[Smid]

Excellent work! Well done!

[Holmes]

Earl

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont mean to toot my own horn, but it's being mentioned on redditt: http://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/zr3pc/proposed_riding_boundaries_map_coloured_in_by/

[lilTommy]

its totally "toot" worthy

basically with the '11 votes... Tories are big winners; the NDP does better but not the big winner; Liberals are the big losers.

How far could the Liberals fall? If this ends up being a two way battle between the NDP/Tories... how far can the Liberals drop in seats? who thought their floor was 35, but could be lower, like old-NDP-mid-20's lower

[Wilfred Day]

2011 results mapped using the new boundaries: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/proposed-riding-boundaries-map-coloured.html

Ontario NDP marginals under proposed boundaries:
Sault Ste. Marie 4.21% Con
Scarborough Centre 4.27% Con (Lib 2nd)
Welland—Fort Erie 4.38% Con
Essex 12.65% Con
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib 9.12% (Con 2nd)
Ottawa—Vanier Lib 9.4%

Who have I missed?

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 results mapped using the new boundaries: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/proposed-riding-boundaries-map-coloured.html

Ontario NDP marginals under proposed boundaries:
Sault Ste. Marie 4.21% Con
Scarborough Centre 4.27% Con (Lib 2nd)
Welland—Fort Erie 4.38% Con
Essex 12.65% Con
Scarborough—Guildwood Lib 9.12% (Con 2nd)
Ottawa—Vanier Lib 9.4%

Who have I missed?

Scarborough East  Lib 3.79% (Con 2nd)
Ancaster Con 14.85%- I assume 15% is your cut off?
London North Centre Con 12.29% (Lib 2nd)