Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[trebor204]

I understand the number of ridings were based on 2011 population estimates, not the 2011 Census Data as before.

Using Census Data
Ontario wil get 116 seats not 121
Alberta 33 not 34
BC 40 not 41
Quebec and the other provinces will remain the same.

1st Column Census Number, 2nd Column 2011 Estimates

Newfoundland and Labrador   514,536   510,578
Prince Edward Island    140,204   145,855
Nova Scotia       921,727   945,437
New Brunswick   751,171   755,455
Quebec †   7,903,001   7,979,663
Ontario †   12,851,821   13,372,996
Manitoba †   1,208,268   1,250,574
Saskatchewan †   1,033,381   1,057,884
Alberta †   3,645,257   3,779,353
British Columbia †   4,400,057   4,573,321

[Smid]

Anyone want to convert those population by ridings Earl posted into green-red over-under maps? I'm happy to do it but want to check no one else has started on it yet. Could probably do two different ones, over/under the average enrolment across Canada and a second one by province, since PEI and Saskatchewan, etc, will be under all over (or just about all over), so by province will be helpful for identifying specific areas likely to be redistributed.

[Hatman]

Go ahead Smid. I'm going to be too busy these evening to do anything I will stay up late though to make some proposal maps. I think I'll start with Ottawa.

[canadian1]

I understand the number of ridings were based on 2011 population estimates, not the 2011 Census Data as before.

Using Census Data
Ontario wil get 116 seats not 121
Alberta 33 not 34
BC 40 not 41
Quebec and the other provinces will remain the same.

1st Column Census Number, 2nd Column 2011 Estimates

Newfoundland and Labrador   514,536   510,578
Prince Edward Island    140,204   145,855
Nova Scotia       921,727   945,437
New Brunswick   751,171   755,455
Quebec †   7,903,001   7,979,663
Ontario †   12,851,821   13,372,996
Manitoba †   1,208,268   1,250,574
Saskatchewan †   1,033,381   1,057,884
Alberta †   3,645,257   3,779,353
British Columbia †   4,400,057   4,573,321

The number of seats per province is still the same as it was before. The new statute provides that the allocation of ridings among provinces is governed by the population estimates, while the allocation of ridings within provinces is governed by the census data. Therefore, the number of ridings for each province is as follows (accompanied by each provincial average)--

ON- 121/106,213
QC- 78/101,321
BC- 42/104,763
AB- 34/107,213
MB- 14/86,305
SK- 14/73,813
NS- 11/83,793
NB- 10/75,117
NL- 7/73,505
PEI- 4/35,051

For once, I actually appreciate the legislative efforts of the Conservative government. This state of affairs, in my opinion, is much more equitable than it would have been without the recent legal changes. It is very weird, however, to be using two different sets of numbers at different points in the redistricting process.

When it comes to the appointment of the actual commissions, I'm worried-- this government doesn't have a very good track record when it comes to appointing qualified and non-partisan candidates to quasi-judicial bodies. This is certainly a big concern in provinces like Saskatchewan (not that I think the rurban ridings are as pernicious an evil as most people here feel).

[Smid]

I'll use the averages you've already calculated for the purposes of the over/under provincial averages map:

Therefore, the number of ridings for each province is as follows (accompanied by each provincial average)--

ON- 121/106,213
QC- 78/101,321
BC- 42/104,763
AB- 34/107,213
MB- 14/86,305
SK- 14/73,813
NS- 11/83,793
NB- 10/75,117
NL- 7/73,505
PEI- 4/35,051

[Smid]

Here is the Population per Riding relative to the average desired population per riding for each province. Pink/Red shows a riding with a population below the desired population, after factoring in the new number of seats for that province, Green shows a riding with a population above the desired population. The territories, having just one riding, obviously have their total population in that one seat and therefore it's equal to the territory's average.

[Hatman]

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

[Smid]

Here's population per riding relative to the national average. Bear in mind that both of these maps factor in the new number of seats, so therefore more seats should be above average than would be the case if the old number of seats were used.



Interestingly, Alberta is the only province in which every riding is over-populated, and Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province not gaining seats, in which one of the ridings still meets the national average (mainly thanks to Labrador being so under-populated).

[Smid]

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

Vancouver Centre is going to be interesting, given that it's on a peninsula. It's about a third over-populated compared to the BC average, so it will have to retract quite considerably and lose quite a bit around the southern end of the riding, I would suspect (unless they carve off the top and link it with North Vancouver or something strange like that). I think the incumbent does best in the South, so it will be interesting to see what happens there... will there be a new seat based on Southern Vancouver Centre/Western Vancouver East/Eastern Vancouver Quadra and Northwestern Vancouver Kingsway?

[Hatman]

I was amazed to see how large St. John's East has gotten.

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

Vancouver Centre is going to be interesting, given that it's on a peninsula. It's about a third over-populated compared to the BC average, so it will have to retract quite considerably and lose quite a bit around the southern end of the riding, I would suspect (unless they carve off the top and link it with North Vancouver or something strange like that). I think the incumbent does best in the South, so it will be interesting to see what happens there... will there be a new seat based on Southern Vancouver Centre/Western Vancouver East/Eastern Vancouver Quadra and Northwestern Vancouver Kingsway?

ooh, so much fun we're going to have, eh?

[Smid]

I was amazed to see how large St. John's East has gotten.

Geosearch2011 is being really wonky, so Im not going to bother making any maps yet. Have a good idea about Ottawa though. I'm thinking of taking Carleton Hts away from Ottawa Centre and giving it to OWN, and taking Blossom Park from Ottawa South and giving it to whatever new riding is created in the far southern suburbs.

Vancouver Centre is going to be interesting, given that it's on a peninsula. It's about a third over-populated compared to the BC average, so it will have to retract quite considerably and lose quite a bit around the southern end of the riding, I would suspect (unless they carve off the top and link it with North Vancouver or something strange like that). I think the incumbent does best in the South, so it will be interesting to see what happens there... will there be a new seat based on Southern Vancouver Centre/Western Vancouver East/Eastern Vancouver Quadra and Northwestern Vancouver Kingsway?

ooh, so much fun we're going to have, eh?

I've been thinking about it for a little while, but now we have the maths. Between Centre, East, Quadra, Kingsway and South, there is about 90% of an additional electorate. The Tories won numerous bits of Quadra but not the bit near Centre. Depending on how things are divied up, there could very easily be three safe NDP seats, 1 lean Tory vs Liberal seat and 1 NDP vs Liberal tossup which would probably favour the NDP. If the Liberals held no seats in Alberta, nor BC, and throw in Manitoba for good measure (if the NDP wins back Winnipeg Centre North), and say Goodale retires in Saskatchewan... if the Liberals held no seats west of Ontario, what would that do to their national credibility and especially particularly in some of those Liberal vs NDP marginals in Ontario...

[Hatman]

Would be nice to win another seat in Vancouver. I reckon that a smaller Vancouver Centre could go for us.

[Smid]

Would be nice to win another seat in Vancouver. I reckon that a smaller Vancouver Centre could go for us.

You do best in the Northern tip of the peninisula, I think, so any contraction towards that point could only benefit the NDP.

[Vasall des Midas]

I understand the number of ridings were based on 2011 population estimates, not the 2011 Census Data as before.

Using Census Data
Ontario wil get 116 seats not 121
Alberta 33 not 34
BC 40 not 41
Quebec and the other provinces will remain the same.

1st Column Census Number, 2nd Column 2011 Estimates

Newfoundland and Labrador   514,536   510,578
Prince Edward Island    140,204   145,855
Nova Scotia       921,727   945,437
New Brunswick   751,171   755,455
Quebec †   7,903,001   7,979,663
Ontario †   12,851,821   13,372,996
Manitoba †   1,208,268   1,250,574
Saskatchewan †   1,033,381   1,057,884
Alberta †   3,645,257   3,779,353
British Columbia †   4,400,057   4,573,321

So they overestimated Canada's population bigtime? What, not taking the possibility that some immigrants leave again quickly into account? Or...

And surely, the weird two-different-data-sets thing is because the formula was decided on with both eyes fixed firmly on its results, ie they decided a number of seats per province and then found a formula that fit. Needed to rule out surprises from the census.

[Vasall des Midas]

Smid, nice map. Shame that it can't take into account the political decisions to keep some intra-province areas overrepresented... Though I suppose you could do a Newfie-sans-Labrador average... but with Ontario you get the questions of will they continue to have 10 seats in the north? Or reduce to nine? Or keep at ten but fiddle with the southern boundary?

[Smid]

Smid, nice map. Shame that it can't take into account the political decisions to keep some intra-province areas overrepresented... Though I suppose you could do a Newfie-sans-Labrador average... but with Ontario you get the questions of will they continue to have 10 seats in the north? Or reduce to nine? Or keep at ten but fiddle with the southern boundary?

Thanks for the compliment!

I was thinking the same thing while doing it. I suspect Northern Quebec will also remain under in the same way as Northern Ontario. I contemplated a Newfoundland only for averages version, given Labrador is a distinct area, as you say, but figured to just keep it as is, since Thayer may change their minds for a Labrador - Humber riding. Excising Northern Ontario is a good idea, but it's hard to be objective. Perhaps we could do clusters of seats on existing boundaries or something, and only show the outline of those however many seats, and how the average of all the seats in the cluster compares to the provincial average. I'd like to hear your thoughts/suggestions and might play with some ideas in the morning.

[lilTommy]

Lovely Maps!

Northern Ontario - the Prov. gov't has the north "locked" at 10 seats but i just don't see the tories doing that; if they managed to have the commission stacked even mildly i could see the seats drop to 9... then what i mentioned before could be possible (Two seats carved out of the three in NW ON, Kenora-Thunder Bay RR & SN) and Algoma expanded at the expense of Nickel Belt, Sudbury and Maybe TJB)

Vancouver - If the new riding took Kits, and south Fariview leaving northern Fairview along False creek, and the pennisula which has both the NDPs and tories (Yaletown, coal harbour) strongest polls, the riding should go NDP. Given that in May we had a relative unknown candidate who performed well. The New Granville or Cambie corridor riding would probably be Tory/Liberal since it goes through battleground areas esp on the prov side.

Toronto - Pickering-SE will be split so that scarborough has 5 or 6 full seats; i'm really surprised to see Danforth under quota; Beaches is slighly above so i could see some polls drift over from Beaches to Danfoth since the Don is a huge barrier abd would be an ugly move. Also since i feel a forth riding DT will be created... PHP and Davenport will pick up some polls probably from Trinity-Spadina; But i would split St. Pauls east to west, think a Tronto Centre minus Rosedale which would then  be merged with eastern St.Pauls. Named myabe Rosedla-St. Pauls.  Northern TS merged with St. Pauls western; maybe named Forrest Hill... I'd have to see if that worked out.

The liberals are almost dead east of Ontario... BC they have some blood but only in the Lower mainland. if by 2015 it becomes a more heated two way race... I'd expect them to lose most ridings west of ontario (Goodale might be retiring by then, fingers crossed on that one)

[Hatman]

RE Northern Ontario: Not sure if the Tories will want to lose Kenora, as they hold it. The NDP seats in the north don't seem to be too much in jeopardy. BTW, provincially N.O. has 11 seats, not 10.

[lilTommy]

RE Northern Ontario: Not sure if the Tories will want to lose Kenora, as they hold it. The NDP seats in the north don't seem to be too much in jeopardy. BTW, provincially N.O. has 11 seats, not 10.

Ah christmas your right, sorry about that.

So the Globe and CBC have great maps too...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/census-2011-interactive-how-does-your-community-compare/article2326514/
They are showing which census tracts have negative growth

[Hatman]

RE Northern Ontario: Not sure if the Tories will want to lose Kenora, as they hold it. The NDP seats in the north don't seem to be too much in jeopardy. BTW, provincially N.O. has 11 seats, not 10.

Ah christmas your right, sorry about that.

So the Globe and CBC have great maps too...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/census-2011-interactive-how-does-your-community-compare/article2326514/
They are showing which census tracts have negative growth

You had me looking for census tracts, but remember there is a difference between CTs and census subdivisions which this map shows.

[lilTommy]

... odd the map is labelled wrong then, on the Globe site it says Census tract.
what is the difference BTW?

[Hatman]

CSD = municipalities
CT = basically neighbourhoods

[Hatman]

oh nevermind, you have to zoom in further to get the CTs. Sorry!

[Hatman]

Great find! This is going to make making maps so much easier than using the clunky geosearch site.

[lilTommy]

Great find! This is going to make making maps so much easier than using the clunky geosearch site.

YAY! its shake'n bake and i helped ... sorta LOL