Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman]

By the way, there is no reason for Northern Ontario to lose seats. The provincial quotient went down by a higher percentage than the population loss of Northern Ontario. The average riding in Ontario will be 1.3% smaller than the last redistribution, while Northern Ontario went down just 0.8%. However, the reason for the worry is that Northern Ontario went down 1.3% from 2006. This is because Northern Ontario actually grew beween 2001 and 2006.

[Hashemite]

Great map!

Growth in my neck of the woods is really interesting. The older areas parts of Orleans declined, like my census tract or other older areas north and south of the highway; while subdivisions in Avalon and Chapel Hill South are booming; as is exurban Cumberland. Interesting to see high growth in Sandy Hill and downtown.

[RogueBeaver]

Montreal Island proper hasn't grown all that much, though the West Island (go figure) has.

[Senator MaxQue]

Montreal Island proper hasn't grown all that much, though the West Island (go figure) has.

Well, there isn't much room for growth on the Island.
Perhaps more in West Island, I never went there.

[lilTommy]

Montreal Island proper hasn't grown all that much, though the West Island (go figure) has.

Well, there isn't much room for growth on the Island.
Perhaps more in West Island, I never went there.

that cant be necessarily be true, like DT there are ways esp if there is a condo boom or brownfield conversions to have growth is cities.The west island is like the inner suburbs here like north york or etobicoke(i have family in Dorval) which is the main reason the waterfront tract here is so dark... i know, my building is less then 5yrs old and thats old for around here

[RogueBeaver]

If someone could take a stab at the Quebec ridings, 'twud be much appreciated.

[Hatman]

I'm starting with Ottawa

[Hatman]

Here's Ottawa: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/census-results-released-and-my-riding.html

Suggestions for my next proposal? Don't say Quebec either, because I can't do the whole province at once. Keep a region down to less than 15 ridings, I'd say.

[Smid]

Winnipeg?

[Senator MaxQue]

I'll talk of my region, Abitibi-Témiscamingue, because I know it.

There is only 2 possible plans, because any other idea would get shot down by the people.
It is impossible to split an MRC.
It is VERY impossible to put Rouyn-Noranda and Val-d'Or in the same riding.
The commission did both in its first plan last time, it was badly received.

So, two cases possible. Abitibi MRC in Abitibi-Témiscamingue (since 2004) or in Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou (before 2004).

The current plan has the problem of road links. It doesn't connect well. To do Val-d'Or-Matagami, you need to pass by Abitibi MRC.

But, on the demography side, Abitibi-Témiscamingue has just the good size. Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou is a bit underpopulated, but it is the Canada 4th largest riding and Native growth is significant, so it's mae more sense to keep the status quo. The other case (even larger ABJNE, being quite populated isn't good).

[lilTommy]

I would love to see Toronto, i've already mentioned a few changes that i think will happen (or changes i would make) since the city will get two ridings; one DT and one in the inner burbs somewhere...
I'd love to try but to be honest have no real idea how to go abouts...

[Hatman]

Okay, here's Winnipeg: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2012/02/my-riding-boundary-proposal-for.html

[Hashemite]

Calgary/Edmonton or any of those big cities which are gonna gain seats would great.

[RogueBeaver]

If possible, could you mention whether redistricting produces a swing one way or another in the riding? A version of PVI if you will.  Ferex, will Lamoureux's Winnipeg North become slightly more red or orange?

[Hatman]

If possible, could you mention whether redistricting produces a swing one way or another in the riding? A version of PVI if you will.  Ferex, will Lamoureux's Winnipeg North become slightly more red or orange?

Since I forgot to do it with Ottawa, I thought I'd be consistent and not do it with Winnipeg. But, maybe I should think about it.

As for Winnipeg North, my plan would make it more friendly for Lamoureux (however, the NDP could still win it). It loses the strongest NDP areas in the southeast. The new gains could make it worse, but they are the strongest NDP areas of Kildonan--St. Paul. Seven Oaks was NDP, and I would be adding it to Winnipeg North.

Winnipeg Centre would lose some of its Tory areas, and with gaining some strong NDP areas from WN, it would become even more super safe for Pat Martin. The Liberals would fall even further in Winnipeg South Centre, and I can tell you that is inevitable anyways. Linden Park is almost assured of being added, and it voted Tory.

[Hatman]

As for Ottawa, the new riding would of course be a Tory one.

Orleans looks like it would become slightly more Conservative, but I could be wrong. But, BHS and BH seem to be more Liberal than the rest of the riding (sorry, Hash!). However, adding BHS makes Ottawa-Vanier more Tory, and less NDP. Good news for the Liberals.  Ottawa South also becomes more Liberal friendly, because Blossom Park is a good area for the Tories. Also, FWIW, Crystal Bay went Conservative, so OWN might be less Tory friendly. Only matters provincially at this point.

Provincially, none of my changes would swing any of the ridings. The PCs would gain one, of course. I really hope they take off Carleton Heights and Carlingwood from Ottawa Centre though, even though I didn't even make that proposal.

[Hatman]

I'm working on Toronto right now. I'm going to keep Etobicoke with 3 districts, and I'm going to give Scarborough 1/2 district more to make it an even six.  I've finished the map for the rest of the city. Basically, I've split the 2 Don Valley ridings into 3, and moved everything out from there.

[Novelty]

Would Vancouver Island be doable, Mr. Hatman?

[Hatman]

Would Vancouver Island be doable, Mr. Hatman?

I'll add it to my list

[lilTommy]

I'm very excited about Toronto and Vancouver... How about SW ON (Hamilton and west of it)? Windsor-Essex-Chatham-Kent area also saw population decreases so there might be some movement there?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/story/2012/02/13/sby-gravelle-bill.html
Looks like the NDP is going to try and make sure N.ON keeps its 10 seats... which brings us to another point, are there other provinces who wish to have regions protected from losing seats? are there any regions that will (or should) lose seats?

[Hatman]

I'm very excited about Toronto and Vancouver... How about SW ON (Hamilton and west of it)? Windsor-Essex-Chatham-Kent area also saw population decreases so there might be some movement there?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/story/2012/02/13/sby-gravelle-bill.html
Looks like the NDP is going to try and make sure N.ON keeps its 10 seats... which brings us to another point, are there other provinces who wish to have regions protected from losing seats? are there any regions that will (or should) lose seats?

As I said before, there is no reason for Northern Ontario to lose seats. The population went down by a lower percentage than the provincial quotient.

[Novelty]

Is Labrador protected from having its sole seat without sharing it with the rest of the "island"?

[Hatman]

Is Labrador protected from having its sole seat without sharing it with the rest of the "island"?

It was last time, but I believe it lost people compared to the provincial quotient that went up. It is the smallest riding in Canada, so they may decide to alter that.

[Novelty]

It is the smallest riding in Canada

I was surprised to see that it, and not any one of the PEI ridings, were the smallest in Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

Labrador smallest in population presumably. The smallest in area is Papineau, which is only a few blocks of low-income residential in northeastern Montreal.