Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012
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  Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012
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Author Topic: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012  (Read 176624 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #125 on: May 26, 2012, 11:13:15 PM »

The boundaries look pretty sound. My only issue is with the names:

St. John's North. Wha?? I know it makes sense if you look at a map, but it's basically a smaller version of St. John's East. In fact, the current St John's East riding was formerly called St. John's North, but it changed names. I reckon they will do this again.

Long Range Mountains: Kind of a weird name, really. Could just shorten to "Long Range". However, I reckon they might have to throw in some place names, and so the riding name might be changed to "Humber--St. Barbe--St. George's"

Bay d'Espoir-Central-Notre Dame: Throwing central in there randomly is kind of weird. Central what? Obviously Nfld, but you just don't throw in a word like that without context. If we use names from the current ridings, then how about "Baie Verte--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor"? Not enough people live in the Bay d'Espoir area to include it in the riding name, let alone be the first name in the riding! One might conceivably keep Notre Dame in the riding title, perhaps use my suggestion replacing Baie Verte with Notre Dame.

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity: No complaints here. You can throw in "Random" if you want to keep the current geographical names in the riding title, but it would be redundant since Random Island is on Bonavista Bay. It shouldn't even be in the name of the current riding, as it's not that significant.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #126 on: May 26, 2012, 11:44:11 PM »

For the order of parts inside names, it doesn't seem linked to population or importance of the area, but rather to the alphabetical order.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #127 on: May 27, 2012, 08:49:24 AM »

For the order of parts inside names, it doesn't seem linked to population or importance of the area, but rather to the alphabetical order.

That's not a standard though; I wonder why they've done that? That's not the case right now.
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DL
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« Reply #128 on: May 27, 2012, 08:54:19 AM »

Ok, well Avalon has become a safe Conservative seat. The area it lost along Trinity Bay is quite Liberal and the area it gains is NDP now, but without Jack Harris on the ballot will vote Tory
 


I don't think we can make any assumptions. In the last election, the NDP just had a name on the ballot and had no active campaign at all in Avalon. Now that the two St. john's seats have become such NDP strongholds I think it's almost certain that in 2015 the NDP will put Avalon high on the target list and pour resources in. The finger of territory that Avalon gains from Harris' seat is small in area, but I wonder how many voters it has?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #129 on: May 27, 2012, 09:03:45 AM »

Ok, well Avalon has become a safe Conservative seat. The area it lost along Trinity Bay is quite Liberal and the area it gains is NDP now, but without Jack Harris on the ballot will vote Tory
 


I don't think we can make any assumptions. In the last election, the NDP just had a name on the ballot and had no active campaign at all in Avalon. Now that the two St. john's seats have become such NDP strongholds I think it's almost certain that in 2015 the NDP will put Avalon high on the target list and pour resources in. The finger of territory that Avalon gains from Harris' seat is small in area, but I wonder how many voters it has?

There must be 15,000-20,000 people there as St. John's East has over 100,000 and the riding was cut down to ~80,000.

Avalon is a potential NDP gain, I suppose. But, it has some factors going against it. St. John's is a good place for the NDP because it's urban, and because they area is very anti-Liberal (Tory tradition, but not a right wing tradition). Avalon has a bit of that Tory Catholic influence like St. John's, but it's more rural and right of centre. They are more hard core Tory. Let's look at the provincial election. Where did the NDP win seats? In St. John's. They didn't win any in Avalon.

A strong NDP campaign could hurt the Tories more than the Liberals, however (one of the few areas that would be true), and keep the seat in Liberal hands.
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DL
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« Reply #130 on: May 27, 2012, 09:26:33 AM »

Provincial election patterns don't tell us much about federal voting in Newfoundland. The ories won almost every single seat in the province provincially yet they are totally shut out of Newfoundland in the federal election just six months earlier.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #131 on: May 27, 2012, 01:20:54 PM »

Provincial election patterns don't tell us much about federal voting in Newfoundland. The ories won almost every single seat in the province provincially yet they are totally shut out of Newfoundland in the federal election just six months earlier.

True, but for the NDP there is more correlation.
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DL
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« Reply #132 on: May 27, 2012, 06:44:34 PM »

I think the main correlation for the NDP in Newfoundland is that when they actively campaign and target a riding - they tend to do very well. In Burin-Placentia West the NDP took 47% of the vote and lost by just 40 votes. Right next door in the demographically identical riding of Grand Banks - the NDP took just 2% of the vote. Similarly the NDP came out of no where to win in The Straights-White Bay North on the great northern peninsula, but in the neighbouring ridings support was in single digits. So while there is clearly an NDP stronghold in inner St. John's that tends to weaken the further you get from the city centre, in the rest of the province its very volatile and all it takes is for the NDP to run a respected local figure and put in some organization and they can suddenly be very ciompetitive.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #133 on: May 27, 2012, 08:09:38 PM »

Good point, By that measure, the party could theoretically win all 7 ridings.
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DL
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« Reply #134 on: May 27, 2012, 09:14:20 PM »

Good point, By that measure, the party could theoretically win all 7 ridings.

Believe it or not the NDP has actually been very competitive at least once in almost every riding in Newfoundland. In 1979 the party won a riding on the west coast of Newfoundland and came very close to winning Grand Falls White Bay-Labrador. In 1997 the NDP came within 400 votes of winning Bonavista-Trinity-Conception and in 2004 Rev. Des McGrath got almost 40% of the vote in Burin-Random-St. George. The NDP usually wins ridings that have LOW incomes. In NL, you have a bit of a reverse situation where the NDP won both St. John's seats - which are actually by far the wealthiest ridings in the province - but they were not competitive in the rural seats. I think the only reason the NDP didn't do better in rural NL is that they didn't campaign at all and put all there efforts into winning the two urban seats. it will be a very different situation in 2015 after 4 years of the provincial NDP having 5 seats and vastly more resources and the federal party being the official opposition. The only thing that makes any seats in NL "unwinnable" for the NDP is the presence of an incumbent Liberal MP who has some incredible local following - in which case we have to wait until they retire. I have also heard rumours that if the Liberals are in disarray in 2015 and dawdling along at 15% in the polls - a couple of Liberal MPs from NL may quit the Liberal caucus and seek NDP nominations for the general election.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #135 on: May 27, 2012, 09:24:38 PM »

I don't see Montreal proper getting that much of a makeover, if any. Certainly if my part of town gets caught up in redistribution I'll still be stuck with a lousy orange poteau.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #136 on: May 28, 2012, 12:22:43 AM »

My analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/05/newfoundland-and-labrador-boundary.html
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Novelty
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« Reply #137 on: May 28, 2012, 04:17:26 AM »

Nice.  Thanks for the update Hatman!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #138 on: May 28, 2012, 09:11:40 PM »

It will be interesting to see how they turnout.  While a lot can change between now and the next election in terms of voting preferences at least the 2011 results can be used as a base point.  Off course the polls have already changed a fair bit and almost certainly will again between now and 2015.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #139 on: May 29, 2012, 01:01:12 PM »

any idea when the other maritime provinces will release their proposals? i'm looking to see NS and NB... from a purely how-can-the-ndp-benefit side of things Smiley
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mileslunn
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« Reply #140 on: May 31, 2012, 09:02:02 PM »

any idea when the other maritime provinces will release their proposals? i'm looking to see NS and NB... from a purely how-can-the-ndp-benefit side of things Smiley

Looking at purely population shifts, I would say neither will result in the NDP getting more seats purely using the 2011 results.  However, in the case of Nova Scotia, Halifax is the area where the population is growing thus the ridings will likely become smaller making them even safer for the NDP.  CN, CCMV, and SSSM will probably pretrude even further into the Halifax RM thus making them slightly more favourable for the NDP although in the case of CN and CCMV they have a pretty large gap to overcome.  Central Nova has in the past provincially and federally been more favourable to the NDP thus the gap will be a little easier to overcome than in CCMV which has pretty much always gone heavily Tory.  South Shore-St. Margaret's would be an NDP target regardless of riding changes but I doubt they will be dramatic enough to put the NDP ahead using the 2011 results; maybe with the 2008 results though.

As for New Brunswick, unless heavily gerrymandered highly unlikely.  An 8 point deficit was the closest they came in any riding they lost so unlikely the riding changes will put them on top.  Nonetheless I could see two ridings which would be somewhat more favourable.  Moncton-Dieppe (otherwise add the Dieppe portion in Beausejour while remove Riverview) would make it a three way race, while in the case of Saint John if they chopped off the Rothesay and Quismapsis sections it would narrow the gap somewhat although the Tories would still have a 14-15 point lead using the 2011 results, but not the 19 point lead they had in the riding, thus making it a more realistic target rather than a long shot one. 
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trebor204
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« Reply #141 on: June 02, 2012, 03:49:32 PM »

any idea when the other maritime provinces will release their proposals? i'm looking to see NS and NB... from a purely how-can-the-ndp-benefit side of things Smiley

Here is a repeat of my earlier post, when the last redistibution took place.


A list of news releases related to 2004 Federal Representation

http://elections.ca/scripts/fedrep/federal_e/new_e.htm

NL - June 1
NB - June 29
NS - July 13
SK - July 13
BC - July 20
AB  -  Aug 2
PEI - Aug 10
MB - Aug 10
ON - Aug 17
QU - Aug 31

All of them expect AB (FRI) were released on a Saturday
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MaxQue
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« Reply #142 on: June 02, 2012, 03:51:34 PM »

This year, NL was published a Friday.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #143 on: June 02, 2012, 06:32:39 PM »

Hmm, I wonder if it will be the same order. I guess I have a few weeks to work on a New Brunswick proposal. Or maybe I shouldn't bother...
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Novelty
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« Reply #144 on: June 02, 2012, 11:03:47 PM »

You should work on a N&L counter proposal!
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #145 on: June 22, 2012, 01:44:48 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2012, 01:46:25 PM by The Great Pumpkin »

New Brunswick proposal is out.

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=nb&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

Basically the current map with some changes, particularly the urban ridings shrinking due to population growth. Fredericton loses some rural areas, and the Moncton riding, perhaps more controversially, loses Dieppe (to Beauséjour), which drops the % Francophone significantly.

They're still giving a rural exception variance to Miramichi (-28.6% population) which seems a bit dubious since by national standards it's small and non-northern.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #146 on: June 22, 2012, 02:06:33 PM »

Miramichi is complicated since the only direction it can expand is towards Moncton, as they can't tough to Southern NB (well, they can, but it would go the courts again and be stuck down again), forcing an ugly redraw.

Tobique-Saint John River Valley is a bit strange name (and even more in French, Tobique-La Vallée de la Rivière Saint-Jean, especially with the La).

They seem to like ramdom appendages. the Frederiction one going to Burton, the Tobique on going to Minto, the strange U border between NBSW and Fundy-Quispamsis.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #147 on: June 22, 2012, 02:19:13 PM »

I have to agree... there are A LOT of little appendages just sticking out everywhere... is there historical/geographic/linguistic reasons for this? population reasons...
And Tobique - Saint John River Valley is indeed an odd name; but so was Long Range Mountains (NL)... are we seeing a trend here with the naming conventions?
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DL
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« Reply #148 on: June 22, 2012, 02:59:54 PM »

The map probably doesn't make a huge amount of change in temr sof what party holds what seat. Moncton may be slightly better for the Tories now, but if the NDP comes on strong in 2015 - Fredericton could be more winnable now that ist almost totally urban.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #149 on: June 22, 2012, 04:23:56 PM »

I had a feeling this would come out today (looks like they're using the same time table as 10 years ago, minus a week)

Interesting map, I will of course have to do an analysis, probably tonight at some point. I have an issue with some of the riding names again, but more about that later.
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