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| | |-+  Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012
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Author Topic: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012  (Read 48990 times)
Hatman
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« Reply #150 on: June 22, 2012, 04:36:01 pm »
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Hmm, Beausejour is over populated, why not shift some of its territory to Miramichi?
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« Reply #151 on: June 22, 2012, 04:44:52 pm »
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Hmm, Beausejour is over populated, why not shift some of its territory to Miramichi?

They said than the coastal area was a community of interest and Miramichi was already too big.
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Hatman
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« Reply #152 on: June 22, 2012, 09:58:15 pm »
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Hmm, Beausejour is over populated, why not shift some of its territory to Miramichi?

They said than the coastal area was a community of interest and Miramichi was already too big.

Bah.
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« Reply #153 on: June 22, 2012, 10:34:53 pm »
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These proposals are way too cautious. It's really what Americans might call a "least-change map"; there was no attempt to change the structure of the current ridings. A shame, really, because there are several alternative arrangements that might work better.

The Fredericton riding looks quite bizarre with territory being removed in a piecemeal way. Better to leave all of those split parishes to the east in the same riding. It's also worth bearing in mind that Fredericton is growing quite quickly.

The decision re Miramichi strikes me as a bow to political correctness. The notion that any riding in New Brunswick could possibly deserve "extraordinary" status is risible, and the "community of interest" along the southeastern shoreline isn't strong enough to justify having two adjacent ridings with such wildly divergent populations. I would venture to say that the only reason this was done was to avoid inflaming linguistic tensions amongst the public, which is too weak a rationale for this decision. It's especially weird in light of the fact that you would only have to move approximately 3000 people to comply with the statute--3000 people who were, between 1997 and 2004, constituents of the Miramichi riding.

Remember that last time, when the court intervened, the new Miramichi riding it created was still within the 25% variance (22% below)--that's why the commission's decision to enlarge it northwards was deemed unreasonable. This is the first time Miramichi has been deemed  an "extraordinary circumstance", and I don't think it qualifies for that status.

On the topic of names, I hate "Tobique-Saint John River Valley"; it's way too long. Why not just "Saint John River"? I also don't understand why "Fundy Royal" is changing to "Fundy-Quispamsis", as the current riding includes most of Quispamsis. ("Fundy Royal" should, however, have a dash, as it used to).

Why is the town of Riverview still split in two? I don't see a compelling reason why it shouldn't all be in the same riding (with Moncton). The split was only done last time for population reasons, which no longer apply due to the removal of Dieppe.

In the last commission's final report, there was a dissent regarding Saint John. One of the members wanted to split Saint John in two and make two rurban ridings and one rural one. I'm not a fan of rurban ridings in general, but I think New Brunswick Southwest is a geographically incoherent constituency. At the end of the day, the suggestion made in that dissent strikes me as more workable than this.

Overall, not a very ballsy performance; the commission comes across as timid and afraid to make bold suggestions. It's worth remembering that the more significant the proposed changes, the greater variety of public input you'll get. I'll be surprised if this report generates much public interest.
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« Reply #154 on: June 22, 2012, 10:48:40 pm »
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Yes, I agree than they were too much pro status quo. But I maintain than the Miramichi thing is than they are over-cautious over the French/English divide and over court contestation

Note than changing too much things is possible, like the Quebec commission was last time, which led to weird boundaries which were returned to status quo after the audiences.
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Hatman
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« Reply #155 on: June 23, 2012, 12:03:17 am »
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I agree with the comments so far. The Nfld commission was bold, and came up with some good ridings. Why can't they do the same in NB? I might have to make my own proposal.
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Hatman
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« Reply #156 on: June 23, 2012, 12:15:48 am »
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The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of having just City of Moncton as one riding. It's fast growing, so who cares if it is 6,000 people less than the quotient. Only issue is Saint John is slightly larger, and would want to be its own riding too.
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Hatman
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« Reply #157 on: June 23, 2012, 01:34:09 am »
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Southwestern NB is a bit too complex, but the rest of the province can be divided into neat, compact ridings that are very close to the quotient.

*Madawaska--Restigouche--Grand Falls (add the Francophone Grand Falls area)
*Acadie--Bathurst
*Miramichi--Kent (Northumberland and Kent counties together make 78,000 people)
*Beausejour--Westmorland (Westmorland County minus Moncton)
*Moncton (just Moncton)

Maybe that would make too much sense?
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« Reply #158 on: June 23, 2012, 02:25:38 am »
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Hmm, Beausejour is over populated, why not shift some of its territory to Miramichi?
That was my thought too... I can't wait to read your analysis and your proposed boundaries Hatman.  Are you still working on the Nfld proposal as well?
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Hatman
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« Reply #159 on: June 23, 2012, 02:27:57 am »
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Hmm, Beausejour is over populated, why not shift some of its territory to Miramichi?
That was my thought too... I can't wait to read your analysis and your proposed boundaries Hatman.  Are you still working on the Nfld proposal as well?

I was too pleased with the Nfld boundaries to bother, but I will be doing one for NB.
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Hatman
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« Reply #160 on: June 23, 2012, 02:52:02 am »
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OK as promised, here is my analysis: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/06/new-brunswick-boundary-commission.html
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« Reply #161 on: June 23, 2012, 03:10:40 am »
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At least, they didn't reproprosed the very strange proposal of 2004 of putting all reservations in Miramichi, no matter where they were in the province.
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Hatman
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« Reply #162 on: June 23, 2012, 09:51:17 pm »
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Speaking of the '04 proposal, they also tried putting Grand Falls in with Madawaska-Restigouche, but residents were upset because while they would've been with a Francophone riding, they would have been separated from the potato farmers of Tobique-Mactaquac. Apparently Grand Falls has historically been with Madawaska-Restigouche. Anyways, due to population and linguistic reasons, I would put the area back.
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« Reply #163 on: June 24, 2012, 07:48:50 pm »
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I wonder what the transposed votes would be.  In the case of Miramichi I know the Conservatives would have won it, but would have they cracked the 50% mark like they did in 2011 are fallen below.  Also in Moncton-Riverview the Conservatives would have done better but how much.  Likewise in Fredericton it would be interesting to see the numbers not just for 2011 but also 2008 as it might have stayed Liberal or at least been a lot closer in that election.  The Conservatives still would have won it handidly, but unlike 2011, a think a united left could win under the new boundaries whereas under the old boundaries it would be a lot harder.  As for the boundary changes, I've noticed elections Canada does everything possible to ensure the winner doesn't change thus why they were cautious here.  If the winner changes then there is the risk of being accused of gerrymandering although no matter how you draw up the boundaries it wouldn't be possible to have the Conservatives win every seat and they would win the majority either way while the Liberals and the NDP at best would win 2 no matter how drawn up.
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Hatman
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« Reply #164 on: June 24, 2012, 10:04:41 pm »
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Well, it's not hard to make the Tories win Beausejour with a few changes.
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« Reply #165 on: June 29, 2012, 03:13:30 pm »
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The new proposed BC map has been posted

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=bc&dir=now/proposals&document=index&lang=e

Looks like some very messy stuff in vancouver!
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« Reply #166 on: June 29, 2012, 03:42:53 pm »
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From what I see Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is broke in two (Cowichan South-Juan de Fuca and Esquimalt-Colwood).

Does it is a fast growing suburban area?

Burnaty North-Seymour is weird, it crosses Fraser and doesn't both sides of a bridge.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2012, 03:59:25 pm by Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation »Logged
Hatman
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« Reply #167 on: June 29, 2012, 03:59:22 pm »
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BC already? Oy vey
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« Reply #168 on: June 29, 2012, 04:03:12 pm »
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Strange way of drawing a new Vancourver riding. Touching the less possible the other riding and making one from the parts removed, which give a strange shape to the new riding.
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« Reply #169 on: June 29, 2012, 04:03:32 pm »
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Have fun with it Hatman - it looks like quite a dog's breakfast!
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Hatman
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« Reply #170 on: June 29, 2012, 04:11:08 pm »
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I heard a lot of rumours about Saanich-GI. Looks like Elizabeth May does lose some of her stronger areas as expected, but it might not be too bad for her.

Have fun with it Hatman - it looks like quite a dog's breakfast!

Heh. Im going to divide it into 3 parts. Guess I'll have to hold off on some other things I was going to post about (I had assumed NS was next, in a week from now)
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« Reply #171 on: June 29, 2012, 05:03:31 pm »
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Hey, a redistribution I can actually comment on!

The new Delta constituency is a really bad move - what were they thinking? "Delta" is a combination of three distinct cities: Ladner, Tsawwassen and North Delta. North Delta was part of its own constituency, since it is essentially attached more to Surrey. Ought to remain Conservative.

The partition of Richmond: Richmond West is now majority Chinese (60%+) while Richmond East should maintain a non-visible minority plurality.

Vancouver-Granville makes sense. It contains all of the rich suburban homes along Granville Road, with a bit of cosmopolitan Fairview. Ought to be a safe Conservative seat barring further scandals. It is more importantly a gerrymander: Vancouver Quadra is now dominated by Liberal Kitsilano and the University and Vancouver-Kingsway is now safe NDP. Hedy Fry will probably be squeezed out of the new Vancouver Centre and Vancouver South turns a bit more Chinese.

Good news for the NDP in Burnaby. Central Burnaby and New Westminster are now three ridings that should keep their incumbents. In exchange richer North Burnaby is fused with the conservative District of North Vancouver for a lean Conservative seat. But the new Port Moody-Coquitlam is still very winnable for the NDP.

New North Vancouver is no longer safe Conservative, but any challenger has to make an appeal to the immigrant population, especially the Arab community.

Good news for the NDP also in Surrey. West Surrey is very immigrant-heavy and supportive of the BC NDP. The rest of South Asian Newton is in Surrey Centre, also winnable for the NDP. They would pick up North Surrey-Guildford given their current standing in the polls. Splitting up South Surrey and Cloverdale is a good idea given their disparate interests, but both should remain safe Conservative.

more to come?
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« Reply #172 on: June 29, 2012, 05:17:19 pm »
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Don't you think Vancouver-Granville is a good example of the kind of riding the reduced Liberal Party could win given that it will have a lot of "too smart to vote Tory, too rich to vote NDP" types in it?
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« Reply #173 on: June 29, 2012, 06:14:45 pm »
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Don't you think Vancouver-Granville is a good example of the kind of riding the reduced Liberal Party could win given that it will have a lot of "too smart to vote Tory, too rich to vote NDP" types in it?

Oh, of course. I would say the riding's one of the few left where there can be a two-way between the Tories and the Liberals. But even then it's an uphill battle for the Liberals, because the coalition of high-income earners and Chinese immigrants the Tories built will dominate every time. If the Liberals ever win they will have to appeal to one of the two.


There's not much to talk about when it comes to the Fraser Valley. More respect is paid to city boundaries (see Cloverdale and City of Langley together being Langley-Cloverdale). The area is still absurdly Conservative.

Same goes for Vancouver Island. It is substantially NDP, and the party ought to win every riding except the suburbs of Esquimalt-Colwood and May's Saanich riding at this point.

Right now I think it's a good redistricting, apart from Delta. I would divide it into two ridings - one including Richmond East, parts of west Richmond, Ladner and Tsawwassen and one including the far east of Richmond, North Delta and parts of Newton.
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Hatman
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« Reply #174 on: June 29, 2012, 08:54:27 pm »
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Esquimalt-Colwood actually looks fairly NDP friendly.
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