Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Space7]

Sorry about my lack of knowledge here, but I have to ask what's the progress in the Redistribution right now? Do we know what the final ridings will be at this point, or are they still going through the drafting room? Have any provinces declared their final decision?

[Wilfred Day]

Sorry about my lack of knowledge here, but I have to ask what's the progress in the Redistribution right now? Do we know what the final ridings will be at this point, or are they still going through the drafting room? Have any provinces declared their final decision?

All ten Commissions have submitted their final Reports. (The provinces have no role in the process.)http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e

However, one MP has started a court challenge of the changes to her riding. I'd say it was a long-shot, except that, in the last round ten years ago, one challenge succeeded. So you never know.

[trebor204]

The Transposition of Votes are now available on the Elections Canada website

http://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=index&lang=e

Tables:
http://elections.ca/res/cir/trans2013/default.asp?lang=e

New Results
Consv 166 to 188
NDP    103 to 109
Lib     34 to 36
BQ    4 to 4
Green 1 to 1

In the 6 Provinces that saw no change in seats, there was a change in the party standings
NL: Conservatives  gain a seat from the Liberals
MB: NDP gain a seat from the Liberals
SK: NDP gains 2 seats from the Conservatives

In BC even though there was a addition of 6 seats, the NDP would lose 1 seat to the Conservatives

In Alberta and BC, the Conservative won all the new seats.

[Krago]

One interesting tidbit;  Dennis Bevington has introduced bills in the past three parliaments to change the name of 'Western Arctic' to 'Northwest Territories'.  Yet the new Representation Order still shows 'Western Arctic'.

[Wilfred Day]

In Alberta and BC, the Conservative won all the new seats.

An oversimplication as to BC.

Vancouver Island gets a seventh seat. The "new" seat (that is not the successor to one of the six) is Nanaimo–Ladysmith, which the NDP wins on the transposed votes. And the NDP wins new Burnaby South (one of the Lower Mainland's five new seats).

But the NDP loses three of their present seats by the changed boundaries: Burnaby-Douglas (successor: Burnaby North—Seymour), New Westminster-Coquitlam (successor: Port Moody—Coquitlam), and British Columbia Southern Interior (successor: South Okanagan—West Kootenay).

[Kevinstat]

The Transposition of Votes are now available on the Elections Canada website

http://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=index&lang=e

Tables:
http://elections.ca/res/cir/trans2013/default.asp?lang=e

New Results
Consv 166 to 188
NDP    103 to 109
Lib     34 to 36
BQ    4 to 4
Green 1 to 1

How did the Conservative margin in the seat with their 155th--> 170th largest margin over their nearest opponent change from the actual results of the last election to the transposed results.  Also, both under the present size of the Canadian House of Commons and the coming size, what is the range of seats where it's reasonably possible but not a lock that enough of the majority party's MPs will survive and follow the party whip that the party can survive a full five-year mandate?  (I suppose the Conservatives could repeal the bill they put in that sets a date for elections and give themselves an extra year before the next election if it suited their interests.)  I imagine the 166 seats out of 304 they won in the last election is above that range.  I imaging there was some discussion of a number for a stable majority" during election night in 2011.  Anyway, how does the Conservative's margins in the "grey area" seats regarding whether or not they win a stable majority change from the actual to transposed results of the last election?

Both of these two measures would seem to be more important than the number of seats they would win if the votes in each polling place (okay, so I'm sure some of those have changed but you know what I mean) remained the same in every election under this new plan as in 2011.  I think I've read that in the c. 1995 boundary review in the UK, the Tories actually gained seats from the 1992 actual to transposed results, but I've heard it said that that boundary review was very bad for the Tories (a Labourite on this forum here said after the c. 2004-2005 review (taking effect before or after the 2005 election in different parts of the UK) that "we [Labor] won [the boundary review this time around] but not as much as in [whenever the one between the 1992 and 1997 general elections was]."

[Kevinstat]

However, one MP has started a court challenge of the changes to her riding. I'd say it was a long-shot, except that, in the last round ten years ago, one challenge succeeded. So you never know.

What ever happened with this?  Is the challenge still pending?  Who was this MP and what riding did she represent?  Was it one of the "rurban" ridings in Saskathewan?

[Wilfred Day]

However, one MP has started a court challenge of the changes to her riding. I'd say it was a long-shot, except that, in the last round ten years ago, one challenge succeeded. So you never know.

What ever happened with this?  Is the challenge still pending?  Who was this MP and what riding did she represent?  Was it one of the "rurban" ridings in Saskathewan?

Maria Mourani filed an application in Federal Court Sept. 16, 2013, seeking to set aside the changes in her riding of Ahuntsic, which becomes Ahuntsic--Cartierville. Her lawyer objects that the Commission wrongly considered estimated future growth in Cartierville.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/387697/mourani-conteste-en-cour-les-nouvelles-limites-de-la-circonscription-d-ahuntsic

I am not aware of any decision yet. This may go to the Court of Appeal, because it's a very interesting point: the Act says to use the 2011 census figures, but some Commissions have looked at estimated future growth, while other have refused to do so.

As a side issue, Maria Mourani has not only left the Bloc over the Quebec Charter of Values, but has left the entire sovereignist cause, and declares herself now a federalist. If the new boundaries survive her challenge, she faces a new riding with transposed results of Liberal 15,127 (31.1%), NDP 14,550 (29.9%), Bloc 13,765 (28.3%), and Conservative 4,168 (8.6%). No indication yet whether she may join the Liberals or the NDP.

[Poirot]

Ahunstic is in Montreal. The new Ahunstic-Cartierville becomes favorable to the Liberals. According to Le Devoir Maria Mourani is in contact with the Liberals and she could possibly run in 2015. It also says other ex-Bloc people could be interested. That would be used to show the party is attracting all kind of people, not just long time Liberals.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/397990/maria-mourani-regarde-vers-les-liberaux

I don't know if Mourani has been shopping at the NDP or at provincial parties also.   

[Hatman 🍁]

Alice has found some funny math in the transposition data: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2014/02/math-challenged-transposition-of-population-not-up-to-usual-elections-canada-standards/

I stumbled on something weird myself. I checked the population of the area lost in Ottawa South using Stats Can's geosearch tool, and it did not match the population mentioned in the transposition. We're talking about one block here, so it's not like I added it up wrong.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Alice has found some funny math in the transposition data: http://www.punditsguide.ca/2014/02/math-challenged-transposition-of-population-not-up-to-usual-elections-canada-standards/

Hmm, weird. Nice work by the Pundit's Guide.

[Krago]

For those of you with nothing better to do, here is the Krago Commission Map of Proposed Ontario Congressional Districts.

Since Ontario has approximately the same population as Illinois or Pennsylvania, I assigned it 18 districts.  I ended with a maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average (713,990 using the 2011 Census).

Here are the most recent federal and provincial results, broken down by district:

CD 01: 718,056  (+0.6%)  [Windsor, Sarnia, Chatham, St Thomas]
FED (2011): CONS 47%, NDP 36%, LIB 14%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): PC 37%, LIB 31%, NDP 29%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

CD 02: 720,815  (+1.0%)  [London, Stratford, Owen Sound]
FED (2011): CONS 48%, NDP 27%, LIB 20%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): PC 37%, LIB 36%, NDP 22%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

CD 03: 715,456  (+0.2%)  [Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Guelph]
FED (2011): CONS 47%, LIB 28%, NDP 20%, GRN 5%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): PC 40%, LIB 36%, NDP 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

CD 04: 722,309  (+1.2%)  [Niagara, Brantford, Woodstock]
FED (2011): CONS 51%, NDP 27%, LIB 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): PC 43%, LIB 29%, NDP 25%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

CD 05: 721,053  (+1.0%)  [Hamilton, Burlington, Grimsby]
FED (2011): CONS 44%, NDP 33%, LIB 19%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): NDP 34%, LIB 33%, PC 29%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

CD 06: 709,026  (-0.7%)  [Oakville, Milton, w. Brampton]
FED (2011): CONS 51%, LIB 28%, NDP 17%, GRN 4%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): LIB 42%, PC 39%, NDP 15%, GRN 3%, OTH 2%

CD 07: 713,443  (-0.1%)  [Mississauga]
FED (2011): CONS 44%, LIB 36%, NDP 17%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): LIB 48%, PC 33%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

CD 08: 715,085  (+0.2%)  [n. Etobicoke, Woodbridge, e. Brsampton, Bolton]
FED (2011): LIB 37%, CONS 36%, NDP 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): LIB 47%, NDP 25%, PC 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

CD 09: 707,327  (-0.9%)  [s. Toronto, s. Etobicoke]
FED (2011): NDP 45%, LIB 29%, CONS 20%, GRN 5%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): LIB 42%, NDP 39%, PC 14%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

CD 10: 713,289  (-0.1%)  [North York, n. Toronto]
FED (2011): CONS 40%, LIB 39%, NDP 18%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): LIB 53%, PC 29%, NDP 14%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%

CD 11: 712,906  (-0.2%)  [Scarborough]
FED (2011): LIB 34%, CONS 33%, NDP 29%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): LIB 47%, PC 25%, NDP 25%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

CD 12: 713,317  (-0.1%)  [Markham, Richmond Hill, Maple, Thornhill]
FED (2011): CONS 49%, LIB 31%, NDP 16%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): LIB 47%, PC 36%, NDP 12%, GRN 2%, OTH 2%

CD 13: 709,064  (-0.7%)  [Barrie, Orangeville, Newmarket, Aurora]
FED (2011): CONS 55%, NDP 18%, LIB 17%, GRN 7%, OTH 4%
PROV (2011): PC 49%, LIB 28%, NDP 15%, GRN 7%, OTH 1%

CD 14: 712,017  (-0.3%)  [Durham, Keswick, Stouffville]
FED (2011): CONS 53%, NDP 22%, LIB 20%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): PC 44%, LIB 33%, NDP 19%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

CD 15: 715,858  (+0.3%)  [Muskoka, Peterborough, Belleville]
FED (2011): CONS 54%, NDP 22%, LIB 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 3%
PROV (2011): PC 46%, LIB 31%, NDP 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%

CD 16: 705,936  (-1.1%)  [Kingston, Cornwall, s. Ottawa]
FED (2011): CONS 54%, LIB 24%, NDP 18%, GRN 4%, OTH 1%
PROV (2011): PC 49%, LIB 30%, NDP 17%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

CD 17: 706,661  (-1.0%)  [Ottawa, Kanata, Orleans]
FED (2011): CONS 37%, LIB 33%, NDP 25%, GRN 4%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): LIB 45%, PC 34%, NDP 17%, GRN 3%, OTH 1%

CD 18: 720,203  (+0.9%)  [Northern Ontario]
FED (2011): NDP 45%, CONS 33%, LIB 20%, GRN 3%, OTH 0%
PROV (2011): NDP 41%, LIB 32%, PC 24%, GRN 2%, OTH 1%




Enjoy.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cool, I did this about 10 years ago on the forum: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=13992.10

Map is gone now, however.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's some names:

1) Erie-St. Clair
2) London-Huron
3) Waterloo-Wellington
4) Erie-Niagara
5) Hamilton-Burlington
6) Halton-Brampton
7) Mississauga
Humber
9) Toronto-Lakeshore
10) York Centre
11) Scarborough-York
12) Oak Ridges
13) Hurontario
14) Durham-York
15) Algonquin-Trent
16) Champlain
17) Ottawa
18) Northern Ontario

[Smid]

For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

[Harry Hayfield]

For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?

[Krago]

For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?

Is this what you're looking for?

http://www.geobase.ca/geobase/en/search.do;jsessionid=A63CA10B7B4D98F6157B5DA914A593E1.geobase1?produit=fed&language=en

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a challenge Krago: Design some NDP, Cons and Liberal gerrymanders

[Wilfred Day]

For those of you with nothing better to do, here is the Krago Commission Map of Proposed Ontario Congressional Districts.

Since Ontario has approximately the same population as Illinois or Pennsylvania, I assigned it 18 districts.  I ended with a maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average (713,990 using the 2011 Census).

Not as irrelevant as you might think. Fans of the Jenkins Commission PR model in the federal Liberal Party like smallish MMP regions of eight MPs: (five local MPs, three regional top-up MPs). Ontario could have 15 regions: Toronto Centre, Toronto Northwest, Scarborough—Beaches—Don Valley East, York Region, Mississauga Southwest—Halton, Brampton—Mississauga East, Ottawa, Mid-East Ontario, Durham—Peterborough, Barrie—Bruce—Dufferin, Hamilton—Niagara, Waterloo—Wellington—Brant, London—Oxford—Huron-Perth, Windsor—Sarnia, and Northern Ontario. A bit like your 18.

A maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average is quite unnecessary, and hinders your usual creativity.

Etobicoke, Woodbridge, East Brampton, Bolton is a heap of leftover bits, including splitting Caledon. Is that the best you could do?

Keeping Mississauga whole looks good, but then you get Oakville, Milton, West Brampton. I'm not saying you're wrong, but did you consider the option of Mississauga Southwest—Halton, and Brampton—Mississauga East?

Niagara, Brantford, Woodstock is interesting, but do Woodstock and Blandford-Blenheim really have much in common with Niagara?

If you insist on adding more people to Windsor--Sarnia--Chatham, wouldn't Strathroy-Caradoc and North Middlesex be better make-weights than St. Thomas?
 
But if you leave St. Thomas with London, excluding Adelaide-Metcalfe from London, Stratford, Owen Sound doesn't look necessary.

Excluding Mattawa and parts of the North Bay Census Agglomeration (East Ferris, Callander, Bonfield) from Northern Ontario doesn't seem justified.

You have put Renfrew, Pembroke and Mattawa into Muskoka, Peterborough, Belleville; weird. Splitting Loyalist from Kingston looks unnecessary. After you put them into a Kingston, Cornwall, Pembroke district, can you keep Ottawa whole?

Orillia belongs with Muskoka more than it does with Orangeville--Newmarket--Aurora, if you need more people in Muskoka, Peterborough, Belleville.

Enough for now.

[Hatman 🍁]

A maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average is quite unnecessary, and hinders your usual creativity.

US redistricting often involves obscenely small deviations, unfortunately.

[Krago]

A maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average is quite unnecessary, and hinders your usual creativity.

US redistricting often involves obscenely small deviations, unfortunately.

425 out of the current 435 U.S. Congressional Districts (based on the 2010 Census) have deviations within 0.1% of their state quotient.  The remaining ten districts are in Maryland and West Virginia, the only two states that permit deviations between 0.1% and 1.0%.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/5478

[Hatman 🍁]

A maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average is quite unnecessary, and hinders your usual creativity.

US redistricting often involves obscenely small deviations, unfortunately.

425 out of the current 435 U.S. Congressional Districts (based on the 2010 Census) have deviations within 0.1% of their state quotient.  The remaining ten districts are in Maryland and West Virginia, the only two states that permit deviations between 0.1% and 1.0%.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/5478

Wow; looks like you should've made them even closer.

[Citizen Hats]

A maximum deviation of 1.2% from the provincial average is quite unnecessary, and hinders your usual creativity.

US redistricting often involves obscenely small deviations, unfortunately.

425 out of the current 435 U.S. Congressional Districts (based on the 2010 Census) have deviations within 0.1% of their state quotient.  The remaining ten districts are in Maryland and West Virginia, the only two states that permit deviations between 0.1% and 1.0%.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/5478

Wow; looks like you should've made them even closer.

The US really is a country where the geographic-representation-forest cannot be seen for the geographic-representation-trees. 

[Harry Hayfield]

For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?

Is this what you're looking for?

http://www.geobase.ca/geobase/en/search.do;jsessionid=A63CA10B7B4D98F6157B5DA914A593E1.geobase1?produit=fed&language=en

That is brilliant, thank you very much indeed

[Smid]

For those interested, I'm in the process of putting together a map based on the redistribution in the vein of my last one (with a few improvements). It's progressing, albeit slowly.

I have just found the data and have downloaded it with a new to creating a projector and battleground. If there is a chance of making your maps into KML files for Google Earth, could you send them to me?

I would, but I don't think I can (lack of ability, rather than permission). Krago's link is probably what you're after, however - I know that I have seen it somewhere, at any rate... if it's not what you're after, try the "Maps Corner" on the elections.ca website.